Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang AngLiKang Pharmaceutical CO.,LTD. (002940.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.72 - $14.14$10.38
Multi-Stage$19.16 - $21.10$20.11
Blended Fair Value$15.24
Current Price$38.02
Upside-59.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%-2.42%0.300.210.170.240.450.340.010.230.150.11
YoY Growth--40.81%22.19%-27.41%-47.75%33.35%3,406.00%-95.74%55.50%34.61%-71.23%
Dividend Yield--2.15%1.28%0.75%1.29%2.53%1.69%0.05%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)67.8767.8767.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2654.3659.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Fair Value$7.72$10.38$14.14
Upside / Downside-79.68%-72.70%-62.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.09108.76109.44110.12110.80111.49114.83
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.32%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2251.9563.8375.8588.02100.34106.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-0.38%0.62%1.62%
Year 1 PV (M)48.8749.3649.85
Year 2 PV (M)56.4957.6358.78
Year 3 PV (M)63.1565.0767.03
Year 4 PV (M)68.9471.7574.64
Year 5 PV (M)73.9377.7281.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,488.703,667.353,853.24
Equity Value (M)3,800.083,988.874,185.20
Shares Outstanding (M)198.37198.37198.37
Fair Value$19.16$20.11$21.10
Upside / Downside-49.61%-47.11%-44.51%

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