Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningbo ZhongDa Leader Intelligent Transmission Co., Ltd. (002896.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.69 - $83.29$78.05
Multi-Stage$48.87 - $53.63$51.20
Blended Fair Value$64.63
Current Price$96.53
Upside-33.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.15%4.37%0.080.080.210.220.090.110.120.040.040.05
YoY Growth--0.73%-59.77%-3.35%152.59%-22.39%-6.56%229.46%-12.23%-25.94%-0.21%
Dividend Yield--0.13%0.31%1.01%1.89%0.81%1.22%0.73%0.19%0.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.569.105.46
Cash Retained (M)31.7031.7031.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.56-9.10-5.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1322.6026.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)173.28173.28173.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate1.77%1.77%1.77%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Fair Value$70.69$78.05$83.29
Upside / Downside-26.77%-19.14%-13.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.8277.2882.0187.0492.3798.02100.96
Payout Ratio56.47%63.18%69.88%76.59%83.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.1248.8257.3166.6676.9488.2293.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.77%1.77%1.77%
Growth Rate5.12%6.12%7.12%
Year 1 PV (M)47.5247.9748.43
Year 2 PV (M)54.3055.3356.38
Year 3 PV (M)61.4763.2465.04
Year 4 PV (M)69.0571.7174.45
Year 5 PV (M)77.0680.8084.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,158.008,553.488,964.14
Equity Value (M)8,467.408,872.539,293.12
Shares Outstanding (M)173.28173.28173.28
Fair Value$48.87$51.20$53.63
Upside / Downside-49.38%-46.96%-44.44%

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