Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Dalian Huarui Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. (002204.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.17 - $61.63$57.75
Multi-Stage$8.88 - $9.72$9.29
Blended Fair Value$33.52
Current Price$6.41
Upside422.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.38%5.95%0.060.040.030.040.040.040.030.020.020.02
YoY Growth--25.41%46.78%-17.30%-14.12%14.38%44.07%34.18%14.62%-31.64%-21.28%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.95%0.59%0.95%1.21%1.28%0.60%0.47%0.31%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)592.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)466.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.5174.0744.44
Cash Retained (M)466.15466.15466.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.51-74.07-44.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)347.64392.08421.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,912.291,912.291,912.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.17$57.75$61.63
Upside / Downside292.67%800.97%861.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)592.57631.08672.10715.79762.32811.87836.22
Payout Ratio21.33%35.07%48.80%62.53%76.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.42221.30327.99447.61581.39730.68773.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)205.77207.72209.67
Year 2 PV (M)283.56288.96294.41
Year 3 PV (M)359.82370.14380.67
Year 4 PV (M)434.56451.27468.46
Year 5 PV (M)507.81532.33557.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,189.5515,923.2116,684.95
Equity Value (M)16,981.0617,773.6418,595.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,912.291,912.291,912.29
Fair Value$8.88$9.29$9.72
Upside / Downside38.53%45.00%51.71%

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