Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (002051.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.73 - $11.76$7.09
Multi-Stage$18.93 - $20.95$19.92
Blended Fair Value$13.50
Current Price$8.28
Upside63.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.01%-1.47%0.170.150.120.020.170.320.380.280.200.22
YoY Growth--11.62%28.44%585.61%-89.85%-47.13%-14.78%36.66%39.05%-9.05%11.04%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.01%1.12%0.20%2.31%3.92%2.39%1.72%0.85%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9535.5921.36
Cash Retained (M)231.36231.36231.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.95-35.59-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.41195.77210.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate0.34%0.34%0.34%
Growth Rate-3.47%-2.47%-1.47%
Fair Value$4.73$7.09$11.76
Upside / Downside-42.88%-14.38%42.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.74277.71270.86264.18257.66251.30258.84
Payout Ratio18.75%33.00%47.25%61.50%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.3891.64127.98162.47195.17226.17239.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.34%0.34%0.34%
Growth Rate-3.47%-2.47%-1.47%
Year 1 PV (M)90.3991.3392.27
Year 2 PV (M)124.52127.12129.74
Year 3 PV (M)155.93160.83165.83
Year 4 PV (M)184.78192.56200.58
Year 5 PV (M)211.21222.38234.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,359.4423,541.8124,773.69
Equity Value (M)23,126.2824,336.0225,596.11
Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
Fair Value$18.93$19.92$20.95
Upside / Downside128.63%140.59%153.04%

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