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BKW AG

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: General UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$165.90
5Y Range446.51 – 916.79
5Y Selected681.65
(-) Safety Margin74.46%
5Y Buy Price$193.72
Upside (to Buy Price)16.77%
10Y Range520.42 – 1,039.76
10Y Selected780.09
(-) Safety Margin74.46%
10Y Buy Price$221.70
Upside (to Buy Price)33.64%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5882
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7647
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7037
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6530
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7131
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6562
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1081
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0118
Safety Score0.2842

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth11.55%10.71%9.87%9.03%8.20%7.36%6.52%5.68%4.84%4.00%
Revenue5,074.035,617.596,172.246,729.867,281.397,817.038,326.488,799.279,225.079,594.08
EBITDA1,734.671,920.502,110.122,300.752,489.312,672.432,846.593,008.233,153.803,279.95
D&A-365.41-404.56-444.50-484.66-524.38-562.95-599.64-633.69-664.35-690.93
EBIT1,369.261,515.941,665.621,816.101,964.932,109.482,246.962,374.542,489.452,589.02
Pro forma Taxes-266.43-294.97-324.09-353.37-382.33-410.46-437.21-462.03-484.39-503.76
NOPAT1,102.831,220.981,341.531,462.731,582.601,699.021,809.751,912.512,005.062,085.26
Capital Expenditures-417.01-461.68-507.26-553.09-598.42-642.44-684.31-723.16-758.16-788.48
NWC Investment-13.49-13.96-14.24-14.32-14.16-13.76-13.08-12.14-10.93-9.48
(+) D&A365.41404.56444.50484.66524.38562.95599.64633.69664.35690.93
Free Cash Flow1,037.751,149.891,264.521,379.971,494.401,605.781,712.001,810.891,900.321,978.22
Diluted Shares Outstanding52,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.5052,762,185.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.67%Terminal Growth: 2.38%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF1,031.061,116.221,150.691,177.171,195.021,203.741,203.071,192.941,173.521,145.19
Raw: 35,645.26
27,598.12
Raw: 47,185.84
26,447.43

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value33,268.2838,036.04
(-) Net Debt1,638.261,638.26
Equity Value31,630.0136,397.77
(/) Shares Out52.7652.76
Fair Value$599.48$689.85
(-) Safety Margin74.46%74.46%
Buy Price$153.11$176.19
Current Price$165.90$165.90
Upside (to Buy Price)-7.71%6.20%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.67%Terminal Growth: 1.88%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.580.53
PV UFCF1,030.101,111.441,135.121,150.461,157.051,154.671,143.311,123.161,094.611,058.27
Raw: 26,285.39
19,613.06
Raw: 34,795.60
17,938.58

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value25,197.2229,096.77
(-) Net Debt1,638.261,638.26
Equity Value23,558.9627,458.50
(/) Shares Out52.7652.76
Fair Value$446.51$520.42
(-) Safety Margin74.46%74.46%
Buy Price$114.04$132.92
Current Price$165.90$165.90
Upside (to Buy Price)-31.26%-19.88%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.67%Terminal Growth: 2.88%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.830.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF1,032.031,121.071,166.621,204.771,234.601,255.381,266.551,267.771,258.941,240.17
Raw: 55,061.26
44,250.87
Raw: 72,888.00
44,450.62

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value50,009.9656,498.53
(-) Net Debt1,638.261,638.26
Equity Value48,371.7054,860.26
(/) Shares Out52.7652.76
Fair Value$916.79$1,039.76
(-) Safety Margin74.46%74.46%
Buy Price$234.15$265.56
Current Price$165.90$165.90
Upside (to Buy Price)41.14%60.07%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$165.90
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH97.14%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue17,423.1534,348.6267,716.10133,497.92263,182.55518,847.431,022,874.262,016,530.683,975,460.267,837,363.67
Constant Implied Growth97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%97.14%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.743.436.7713.3526.3251.88102.29201.65397.55783.74
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.620.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF1.672.935.4210.0118.4934.1863.17116.74215.74398.70

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$71.4011.47%$84.4918.34%
20182018-12-31$71.4015.27%$65.05-8.89%
20172017-12-31$57.9515.40%$126.15117.68%
20162016-12-31$49.257.26%$27.93-43.29%
20152015-12-31$38.005.09%$110.17189.92%
20142014-12-31$29.451.70%$81.43176.50%
20132013-12-31$28.65-3.46%$2.91-89.84%
20122012-12-31$30.95-5.29%$8.45-72.70%
20112011-12-31$36.45-5.68%$-16.22-144.49%
20102010-12-31$30.00-1.26%$-40.24-234.14%
20092009-12-31$30.001.70%$-43.81-246.05%
20082008-12-31$30.00-3.54%$-115.36-484.54%
20072007-12-31$30.00-5.04%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$752.13
Median
$692.36
10th Percentile
$519.61
90th Percentile
$1,007.77

Fair Value Distribution

$389.45 - $659.47
423
$659.47 - $929.50
426
$929.50 - $1,199.53
106
$1,199.53 - $1,469.55
26
$1,469.55 - $1,739.58
10
$1,739.58 - $2,009.60
3
$2,009.60 - $2,279.63
2
$2,279.63 - $2,549.65
2
$2,549.65 - $2,819.68
0
$2,819.68 - $3,089.70
0
$3,089.70 - $3,359.73
0
$3,359.73 - $3,629.75
0
$3,629.75 - $3,899.78
0
$3,899.78 - $4,169.81
1
$4,169.81 - $4,439.83
0
$4,439.83 - $4,709.86
0
$4,709.86 - $4,979.88
0
$4,979.88 - $5,249.91
0
$5,249.91 - $5,519.93
0
$5,519.93 - $5,789.96
1