Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $119.34 |
| 5Y Range | 86.74 – 137.16 |
| 5Y Selected | 111.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 22.80% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $86.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -27.58% |
| 10Y Range | 98.71 – 151.71 |
| 10Y Selected | 125.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 22.80% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $96.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -19.00% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9598 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9816 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9478 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9707 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9709 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9785 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2571 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7652 |
| Safety Score | 0.7720 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.45% | 7.95% | 7.46% | 6.96% | 6.47% | 5.98% | 5.48% | 4.99% | 4.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,037.75 | 10,835.95 | 11,644.08 | 12,454.97 | 13,260.80 | 14,053.26 | 14,823.66 | 15,563.06 | 16,262.46 | 16,912.96 |
| EBITDA | 4,333.63 | 4,678.24 | 5,027.14 | 5,377.23 | 5,725.13 | 6,067.26 | 6,399.87 | 6,719.09 | 7,021.05 | 7,301.89 |
| D&A | -557.64 | -601.98 | -646.87 | -691.92 | -736.69 | -780.71 | -823.51 | -864.59 | -903.44 | -939.58 |
| EBIT | 3,776.00 | 4,076.26 | 4,380.27 | 4,685.31 | 4,988.44 | 5,286.55 | 5,576.36 | 5,854.51 | 6,117.61 | 6,362.31 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -837.79 | -904.41 | -971.86 | -1,039.54 | -1,106.80 | -1,172.94 | -1,237.24 | -1,298.95 | -1,357.33 | -1,411.62 |
| NOPAT | 2,938.21 | 3,171.85 | 3,408.41 | 3,645.77 | 3,881.65 | 4,113.61 | 4,339.12 | 4,555.55 | 4,760.28 | 4,950.69 |
| Capital Expenditures | -650.30 | -702.01 | -754.37 | -806.90 | -859.11 | -910.45 | -960.36 | -1,008.26 | -1,053.57 | -1,095.72 |
| NWC Investment | -193.05 | -197.11 | -199.56 | -200.24 | -198.99 | -195.69 | -190.24 | -182.59 | -172.71 | -160.64 |
| (+) D&A | 557.64 | 601.98 | 646.87 | 691.92 | 736.69 | 780.71 | 823.51 | 864.59 | 903.44 | 939.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,652.50 | 2,874.71 | 3,101.35 | 3,330.54 | 3,560.23 | 3,788.18 | 4,012.03 | 4,229.29 | 4,437.44 | 4,633.92 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 | 446,950,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,629.50 | 2,761.84 | 2,731.10 | 2,688.35 | 2,634.10 | 2,569.02 | 2,493.93 | 2,409.74 | 2,317.50 | 2,218.29 | Raw: 55,226.28 39,119.32 |
Raw: 71,881.29 32,944.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 52,564.21 | 58,397.46 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,083.25 | 5,083.25 |
| Equity Value | 47,480.96 | 53,314.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 446.95 | 446.95 |
| Fair Value | $106.23 | $119.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 22.80% | 22.80% |
| Buy Price | $82.01 | $92.09 |
| Current Price | $119.34 | $119.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -31.28% | -22.84% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,627.10 | 2,750.27 | 2,694.96 | 2,628.68 | 2,552.24 | 2,466.58 | 2,372.73 | 2,271.81 | 2,165.00 | 2,053.50 | Raw: 44,788.70 30,600.04 |
Raw: 58,295.97 24,620.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 43,853.29 | 49,203.26 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,083.25 | 5,083.25 |
| Equity Value | 38,770.04 | 44,120.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 446.95 | 446.95 |
| Fair Value | $86.74 | $98.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 22.80% | 22.80% |
| Buy Price | $66.97 | $76.21 |
| Current Price | $119.34 | $119.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -43.89% | -36.14% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,631.92 | 2,773.56 | 2,768.07 | 2,749.94 | 2,719.38 | 2,676.73 | 2,622.52 | 2,557.44 | 2,482.29 | 2,398.01 | Raw: 71,794.96 52,744.36 |
Raw: 93,446.70 46,511.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 66,387.23 | 72,891.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,083.25 | 5,083.25 |
| Equity Value | 61,303.98 | 67,807.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 446.95 | 446.95 |
| Fair Value | $137.16 | $151.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 22.80% | 22.80% |
| Buy Price | $105.89 | $117.12 |
| Current Price | $119.34 | $119.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -11.27% | -1.86% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 23,439.73 | 58,467.71 | 145,840.98 | 363,783.51 | 907,416.04 | 2,263,444.76 | 5,645,902.12 | 14,083,052.24 | 35,128,550.95 | 87,624,122.33 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% | 149.44% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.34 | 5.85 | 14.58 | 36.38 | 90.74 | 226.34 | 564.59 | 1,408.31 | 3,512.86 | 8,762.41 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.18 | 4.72 | 10.79 | 24.67 | 56.41 | 128.97 | 294.86 | 674.17 | 1,541.39 | 3,524.20 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $132.35 | 8.68% | $51.28 | -61.25% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $85.54 | 8.99% | $56.56 | -33.88% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $72.04 | 9.39% | $44.68 | -37.98% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $53.53 | 9.81% | $15.44 | -71.16% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $47.92 | 8.96% | $12.05 | -74.85% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $43.03 | 8.35% | $13.07 | -69.62% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $32.69 | 5.94% | $13.27 | -59.40% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $31.01 | 3.76% | $11.11 | -64.18% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $31.01 | 3.01% | $11.97 | -61.41% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $31.01 | 2.45% | $3.20 | -89.68% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $31.01 | 5.15% | $-1.46 | -104.70% |
| $79.29 - $91.27 | 44 |
| $91.27 - $103.25 | 141 |
| $103.25 - $115.23 | 242 |
| $115.23 - $127.21 | 211 |
| $127.21 - $139.19 | 161 |
| $139.19 - $151.17 | 94 |
| $151.17 - $163.15 | 49 |
| $163.15 - $175.13 | 36 |
| $175.13 - $187.11 | 10 |
| $187.11 - $199.09 | 0 |
| $199.09 - $211.07 | 4 |
| $211.07 - $223.05 | 2 |
| $223.05 - $235.03 | 4 |
| $235.03 - $247.02 | 1 |
| $247.02 - $259.00 | 0 |
| $259.00 - $270.98 | 0 |
| $270.98 - $282.96 | 0 |
| $282.96 - $294.94 | 0 |
| $294.94 - $306.92 | 0 |
| $306.92 - $318.90 | 1 |