Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $56.80 |
| 5Y Range | 23.44 – 42.87 |
| 5Y Selected | 33.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.20% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.60% |
| 10Y Range | 21.91 – 37.97 |
| 10Y Selected | 29.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.20% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $8.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.29% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8789 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6960 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5070 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7530 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7997 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8501 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5189 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0261 |
| Safety Score | 0.2980 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.17% | 0.29% | 0.76% | 1.22% | 1.68% | 2.15% | 2.61% | 3.07% | 3.54% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,791.45 | 7,814.28 | 7,873.38 | 7,969.42 | 8,103.56 | 8,277.50 | 8,493.53 | 8,754.56 | 9,064.18 | 9,426.74 |
| EBITDA | 744.75 | 746.94 | 752.59 | 761.76 | 774.59 | 791.21 | 811.86 | 836.81 | 866.41 | 901.06 |
| D&A | -245.42 | -246.14 | -248.00 | -251.03 | -255.25 | -260.73 | -267.54 | -275.76 | -285.51 | -296.93 |
| EBIT | 499.33 | 500.79 | 504.58 | 510.74 | 519.33 | 530.48 | 544.32 | 561.05 | 580.90 | 604.13 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -110.48 | -110.81 | -111.64 | -113.01 | -114.91 | -117.37 | -120.44 | -124.14 | -128.53 | -133.67 |
| NOPAT | 388.85 | 389.99 | 392.94 | 397.73 | 404.42 | 413.11 | 423.89 | 436.91 | 452.37 | 470.46 |
| Capital Expenditures | -357.14 | -358.18 | -360.89 | -365.30 | -371.44 | -379.42 | -389.32 | -401.28 | -415.48 | -432.10 |
| NWC Investment | 2.62 | -4.50 | -11.64 | -18.92 | -26.42 | -34.27 | -42.56 | -51.42 | -60.99 | -71.43 |
| (+) D&A | 245.42 | 246.14 | 248.00 | 251.03 | 255.25 | 260.73 | 267.54 | 275.76 | 285.51 | 296.93 |
| Free Cash Flow | 279.75 | 273.45 | 268.40 | 264.54 | 261.81 | 260.15 | 259.55 | 259.97 | 261.41 | 263.87 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 | 81,858,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 277.33 | 262.71 | 236.36 | 213.53 | 193.70 | 176.43 | 161.34 | 148.12 | 136.52 | 126.32 | Raw: 3,969.72 2,811.94 |
Raw: 4,001.00 1,833.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,995.57 | 3,766.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,457.78 | 1,457.78 |
| Equity Value | 2,537.79 | 2,308.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 81.86 | 81.86 |
| Fair Value | $31.00 | $28.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.20% | 70.20% |
| Buy Price | $9.24 | $8.40 |
| Current Price | $56.80 | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.73% | -85.21% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 277.07 | 261.61 | 233.23 | 208.79 | 187.68 | 169.39 | 153.50 | 139.64 | 127.54 | 116.93 | Raw: 3,232.09 2,208.19 |
Raw: 3,257.55 1,375.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,376.59 | 3,251.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,457.78 | 1,457.78 |
| Equity Value | 1,918.81 | 1,793.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 81.86 | 81.86 |
| Fair Value | $23.44 | $21.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.20% | 70.20% |
| Buy Price | $6.99 | $6.53 |
| Current Price | $56.80 | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.70% | -88.51% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 277.58 | 263.83 | 239.56 | 218.43 | 199.97 | 183.82 | 169.66 | 157.20 | 146.23 | 136.55 | Raw: 5,128.86 3,767.93 |
Raw: 5,169.27 2,572.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,967.30 | 4,565.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,457.78 | 1,457.78 |
| Equity Value | 3,509.52 | 3,107.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 81.86 | 81.86 |
| Fair Value | $42.87 | $37.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 70.20% | 70.20% |
| Buy Price | $12.78 | $11.31 |
| Current Price | $56.80 | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.51% | -80.08% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 15,537.63 | 31,467.88 | 63,730.91 | 129,072.21 | 261,405.88 | 529,417.11 | 1,072,211.82 | 2,171,516.89 | 4,397,904.87 | 8,906,938.45 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% | 102.53% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.55 | 3.15 | 6.37 | 12.91 | 26.14 | 52.94 | 107.22 | 217.15 | 439.79 | 890.69 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.45 | 2.54 | 4.72 | 8.75 | 16.25 | 30.16 | 56.00 | 103.95 | 192.97 | 358.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $20.67 | 3.53% | $11.93 | -42.27% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $15.32 | -1.68% | $-31.13 | -303.17% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $22.58 | -2.77% | $-35.28 | -256.26% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $14.18 | 2.35% | $69.97 | 393.47% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $9.73 | 6.64% | $-71.54 | -835.30% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $14.24 | 7.64% | $-81.46 | -672.02% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $13.18 | 2.52% | $-20.42 | -254.90% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $9.19 | 5.43% | $2.16 | -76.50% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $9.30 | 9.54% | $-102.91 | -1,206.52% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $9.08 | 15.98% | $-15.87 | -274.74% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5.28 | 24.01% | $66.93 | 1,167.70% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $3.81 | 25.71% | $4.85 | 27.31% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $8.08 | 18.89% | $106.21 | 1,214.50% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $5.01 | 3.88% | $-47.61 | -1,050.36% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $4.41 | -13.53% | $-23.38 | -630.07% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $4.81 | -12.01% | $-12.35 | -356.76% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.90 | 3.60% | $-7.12 | -345.51% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.10 | 11.43% | $-2.44 | -322.10% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.78 | 29.95% | $67.54 | 3,694.45% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.78 | 23.08% | $-54.93 | -3,185.68% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.78 | -11.95% | $-62.15 | -3,591.59% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $1.78 | -30.45% | $-14.20 | -897.88% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $1.78 | -38.45% | $-4.83 | -371.29% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $1.78 | -7.01% | $-6.81 | -482.31% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $1.78 | 29.08% | $-42.54 | -2,490.02% |
| $11.85 - $15.10 | 1 |
| $15.10 - $18.34 | 8 |
| $18.34 - $21.58 | 83 |
| $21.58 - $24.83 | 145 |
| $24.83 - $28.07 | 225 |
| $28.07 - $31.31 | 190 |
| $31.31 - $34.56 | 146 |
| $34.56 - $37.80 | 86 |
| $37.80 - $41.04 | 59 |
| $41.04 - $44.29 | 22 |
| $44.29 - $47.53 | 10 |
| $47.53 - $50.77 | 12 |
| $50.77 - $54.02 | 6 |
| $54.02 - $57.26 | 5 |
| $57.26 - $60.50 | 1 |
| $60.50 - $63.74 | 0 |
| $63.74 - $66.99 | 0 |
| $66.99 - $70.23 | 0 |
| $70.23 - $73.47 | 0 |
| $73.47 - $76.72 | 1 |