Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $14.92 |
| 5Y Range | 57.16 – 113.30 |
| 5Y Selected | 85.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 47.55% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $46.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 209.51% |
| 10Y Range | 64.70 – 124.76 |
| 10Y Selected | 94.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 47.55% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $51.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 243.99% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9638 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8367 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8013 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6677 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9715 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8811 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8547 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7423 |
| Safety Score | 0.5418 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.60% | 9.87% | 9.13% | 8.40% | 7.67% | 6.93% | 6.20% | 5.47% | 4.73% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 8,499.12 | 9,337.58 | 10,190.30 | 11,046.18 | 11,892.96 | 12,717.46 | 13,505.88 | 14,244.15 | 14,918.35 | 15,515.09 |
| EBITDA | 2,576.89 | 2,831.10 | 3,089.65 | 3,349.14 | 3,605.88 | 3,855.87 | 4,094.91 | 4,318.75 | 4,523.17 | 4,704.09 |
| D&A | -813.13 | -893.35 | -974.93 | -1,056.81 | -1,137.83 | -1,216.71 | -1,292.14 | -1,362.77 | -1,427.27 | -1,484.36 |
| EBIT | 1,763.76 | 1,937.76 | 2,114.72 | 2,292.33 | 2,468.06 | 2,639.16 | 2,802.77 | 2,955.98 | 3,095.89 | 3,219.73 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -443.66 | -487.43 | -531.94 | -576.62 | -620.82 | -663.86 | -705.01 | -743.55 | -778.75 | -809.90 |
| NOPAT | 1,320.10 | 1,450.33 | 1,582.78 | 1,715.71 | 1,847.24 | 1,975.30 | 2,097.76 | 2,212.43 | 2,317.15 | 2,409.83 |
| Capital Expenditures | -691.08 | -759.25 | -828.59 | -898.18 | -967.04 | -1,034.08 | -1,098.19 | -1,158.22 | -1,213.04 | -1,261.56 |
| NWC Investment | -58.46 | -60.19 | -61.21 | -61.44 | -60.78 | -59.18 | -56.59 | -53.00 | -48.40 | -42.84 |
| (+) D&A | 813.13 | 893.35 | 974.93 | 1,056.81 | 1,137.83 | 1,216.71 | 1,292.14 | 1,362.77 | 1,427.27 | 1,484.36 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,383.69 | 1,524.24 | 1,667.90 | 1,812.90 | 1,957.24 | 2,098.74 | 2,235.11 | 2,363.99 | 2,482.99 | 2,589.80 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 | 544,829,956.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,373.85 | 1,475.03 | 1,502.92 | 1,521.10 | 1,529.13 | 1,526.78 | 1,514.03 | 1,491.06 | 1,458.28 | 1,416.29 | Raw: 46,123.50 34,772.05 |
Raw: 61,030.12 32,206.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 42,174.07 | 47,014.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | 983.08 | 983.08 |
| Equity Value | 41,190.99 | 46,031.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 544.83 | 544.83 |
| Fair Value | $75.60 | $84.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 47.55% | 47.55% |
| Buy Price | $39.65 | $44.31 |
| Current Price | $14.92 | $14.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 165.78% | 197.01% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,372.58 | 1,468.75 | 1,482.72 | 1,486.81 | 1,480.87 | 1,464.95 | 1,439.32 | 1,404.41 | 1,360.86 | 1,309.48 | Raw: 34,174.12 24,835.08 |
Raw: 45,218.83 21,960.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 32,126.81 | 36,231.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 983.08 | 983.08 |
| Equity Value | 31,143.73 | 35,248.43 |
| (/) Shares Out | 544.83 | 544.83 |
| Fair Value | $57.16 | $64.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 47.55% | 47.55% |
| Buy Price | $29.98 | $33.93 |
| Current Price | $14.92 | $14.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 100.95% | 127.43% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,375.14 | 1,481.39 | 1,523.59 | 1,556.51 | 1,579.43 | 1,591.83 | 1,593.37 | 1,583.95 | 1,563.69 | 1,532.93 | Raw: 70,555.88 55,198.86 |
Raw: 93,358.78 53,573.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 62,714.91 | 68,955.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 983.08 | 983.08 |
| Equity Value | 61,731.84 | 67,972.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 544.83 | 544.83 |
| Fair Value | $113.30 | $124.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 47.55% | 47.55% |
| Buy Price | $59.43 | $65.44 |
| Current Price | $14.92 | $14.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 298.31% | 338.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 16,198.95 | 32,516.55 | 65,271.26 | 131,020.57 | 263,000.77 | 527,927.81 | 1,059,722.27 | 2,127,206.18 | 4,269,992.49 | 8,571,259.34 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% | 100.73% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.62 | 3.25 | 6.53 | 13.10 | 26.30 | 52.79 | 105.97 | 212.72 | 427.00 | 857.13 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.53 | 2.73 | 5.10 | 9.53 | 17.82 | 33.30 | 62.24 | 116.33 | 217.44 | 406.41 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $22.64 | 10.76% | $30.17 | 33.27% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $14.21 | 12.69% | $25.35 | 78.42% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $27.92 | 13.01% | $16.16 | -42.11% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $11.94 | 10.80% | $24.03 | 101.29% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $5.01 | 8.62% | $15.48 | 208.89% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $5.07 | 10.61% | $10.38 | 104.80% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5.28 | 11.30% | $3.18 | -39.68% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $6.29 | 9.34% | $-0.86 | -113.65% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $5.91 | 7.99% | $-3.19 | -154.02% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $7.28 | 8.67% | $5.78 | -20.56% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $4.93 | 12.06% | $0.31 | -93.71% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $4.89 | 14.74% | $-1.45 | -129.65% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $4.89 | 14.79% | $-1.59 | -132.57% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $4.89 | 15.01% | $4.58 | -6.44% |
| $45.01 - $64.26 | 94 |
| $64.26 - $83.51 | 393 |
| $83.51 - $102.75 | 285 |
| $102.75 - $122.00 | 119 |
| $122.00 - $141.25 | 49 |
| $141.25 - $160.50 | 30 |
| $160.50 - $179.74 | 14 |
| $179.74 - $198.99 | 6 |
| $198.99 - $218.24 | 4 |
| $218.24 - $237.49 | 2 |
| $237.49 - $256.73 | 1 |
| $256.73 - $275.98 | 1 |
| $275.98 - $295.23 | 0 |
| $295.23 - $314.48 | 1 |
| $314.48 - $333.72 | 0 |
| $333.72 - $352.97 | 0 |
| $352.97 - $372.22 | 0 |
| $372.22 - $391.47 | 0 |
| $391.47 - $410.72 | 0 |
| $410.72 - $429.96 | 1 |