Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $90.85 |
| 5Y Range | 125.75 – 210.22 |
| 5Y Selected | 167.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.92% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $37.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.17% |
| 10Y Range | 151.15 – 242.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 197.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.92% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $43.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.12% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9198 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6649 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4234 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5367 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5507 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.5582 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0142 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0961 |
| Safety Score | 0.2208 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.46% | 13.30% | 12.13% | 10.97% | 9.81% | 8.65% | 7.49% | 6.32% | 5.16% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,813.96 | 2,055.13 | 2,304.48 | 2,557.31 | 2,808.17 | 3,051.00 | 3,279.39 | 3,486.77 | 3,666.75 | 3,813.42 |
| EBITDA | 667.00 | 755.68 | 847.36 | 940.33 | 1,032.57 | 1,121.87 | 1,205.84 | 1,282.10 | 1,348.28 | 1,402.21 |
| D&A | -66.52 | -75.36 | -84.50 | -93.78 | -102.97 | -111.88 | -120.25 | -127.86 | -134.46 | -139.84 |
| EBIT | 600.48 | 680.32 | 762.86 | 846.56 | 929.60 | 1,009.99 | 1,085.59 | 1,154.24 | 1,213.82 | 1,262.37 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -147.14 | -166.70 | -186.93 | -207.44 | -227.78 | -247.48 | -266.01 | -282.83 | -297.43 | -309.33 |
| NOPAT | 453.34 | 513.62 | 575.93 | 639.12 | 701.81 | 762.50 | 819.58 | 871.41 | 916.39 | 953.05 |
| Capital Expenditures | -106.85 | -121.05 | -135.74 | -150.63 | -165.41 | -179.71 | -193.17 | -205.38 | -215.98 | -224.62 |
| NWC Investment | 16.20 | 17.06 | 17.63 | 17.88 | 17.74 | 17.17 | 16.15 | 14.67 | 12.73 | 10.37 |
| (+) D&A | 66.52 | 75.36 | 84.50 | 93.78 | 102.97 | 111.88 | 120.25 | 127.86 | 134.46 | 139.84 |
| Free Cash Flow | 429.22 | 484.98 | 542.33 | 600.14 | 657.12 | 711.84 | 762.82 | 808.55 | 847.59 | 878.63 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 | 46,961,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 425.49 | 465.94 | 477.59 | 484.42 | 486.18 | 482.75 | 474.18 | 460.69 | 442.66 | 420.61 | Raw: 9,939.26 7,040.44 |
Raw: 13,289.78 6,090.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,380.06 | 10,711.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,930.61 | 1,930.61 |
| Equity Value | 7,449.45 | 8,780.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 46.96 | 46.96 |
| Fair Value | $158.63 | $186.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.92% | 77.92% |
| Buy Price | $35.03 | $41.28 |
| Current Price | $90.85 | $90.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.45% | -54.55% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 425.11 | 463.98 | 471.27 | 473.67 | 471.07 | 463.50 | 451.14 | 434.32 | 413.54 | 389.36 | Raw: 8,095.77 5,531.10 |
Raw: 10,824.86 4,571.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,836.20 | 9,028.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,930.61 | 1,930.61 |
| Equity Value | 5,905.59 | 7,098.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 46.96 | 46.96 |
| Fair Value | $125.75 | $151.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.92% | 77.92% |
| Buy Price | $27.77 | $33.37 |
| Current Price | $90.85 | $90.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.44% | -63.26% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 425.89 | 467.91 | 484.05 | 495.52 | 501.92 | 502.99 | 498.63 | 488.93 | 474.14 | 454.68 | Raw: 12,833.06 9,427.84 |
Raw: 17,159.08 8,540.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,803.14 | 13,335.25 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,930.61 | 1,930.61 |
| Equity Value | 9,872.53 | 11,404.64 |
| (/) Shares Out | 46.96 | 46.96 |
| Fair Value | $210.22 | $242.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.92% | 77.92% |
| Buy Price | $46.42 | $53.62 |
| Current Price | $90.85 | $90.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.90% | -40.98% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,793.82 | 9,015.88 | 21,425.92 | 50,917.94 | 121,004.70 | 287,563.41 | 683,384.33 | 1,624,038.82 | 3,859,471.17 | 9,171,897.55 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% | 137.65% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.38 | 0.90 | 2.14 | 5.09 | 12.10 | 28.76 | 68.34 | 162.40 | 385.95 | 917.19 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.35 | 0.73 | 1.59 | 3.45 | 7.52 | 16.38 | 35.69 | 77.74 | 169.35 | 368.89 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $103.43 | 22.08% | $124.09 | 19.97% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $71.58 | 14.46% | $82.04 | 14.61% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $77.60 | 6.21% | $71.90 | -7.34% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $56.05 | -1.10% | $20.32 | -63.74% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $50.41 | -1.95% | $21.01 | -58.31% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $56.02 | 6.97% | $46.89 | -16.30% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $49.11 | 8.69% | $34.29 | -30.18% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $33.62 | 9.68% | $44.77 | 33.17% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $38.05 | 8.42% | $42.72 | 12.28% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $38.27 | 7.56% | $39.45 | 3.08% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $31.66 | 6.63% | $30.27 | -4.40% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $30.06 | 7.24% | $26.81 | -10.81% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $33.20 | 4.14% | $34.16 | 2.89% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $42.10 | 1.94% | $34.56 | -17.92% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $41.76 | 3.42% | $28.96 | -30.66% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $29.00 | 6.94% | $26.37 | -9.06% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $17.63 | 12.05% | $34.62 | 96.39% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $11.35 | 13.92% | $26.18 | 130.63% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $11.07 | 14.79% | $24.71 | 123.20% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $6.84 | 16.58% | $11.93 | 74.45% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $8.56 | 31.65% | $21.04 | 145.83% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $6.84 | 36.85% | $14.96 | 118.70% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $8.00 | 33.39% | $10.26 | 28.21% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $8.81 | 31.13% | $-1.26 | -114.34% |
| $118.73 - $140.48 | 55 |
| $140.48 - $162.24 | 180 |
| $162.24 - $183.99 | 246 |
| $183.99 - $205.74 | 236 |
| $205.74 - $227.49 | 127 |
| $227.49 - $249.24 | 86 |
| $249.24 - $270.99 | 39 |
| $270.99 - $292.74 | 14 |
| $292.74 - $314.49 | 10 |
| $314.49 - $336.24 | 3 |
| $336.24 - $357.99 | 1 |
| $357.99 - $379.74 | 2 |
| $379.74 - $401.49 | 0 |
| $401.49 - $423.25 | 0 |
| $423.25 - $445.00 | 0 |
| $445.00 - $466.75 | 0 |
| $466.75 - $488.50 | 0 |
| $488.50 - $510.25 | 0 |
| $510.25 - $532.00 | 0 |
| $532.00 - $553.75 | 1 |