Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $24.89 |
| 5Y Range | 23.63 – 33.54 |
| 5Y Selected | 28.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.34% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.49% |
| 10Y Range | 24.32 – 33.59 |
| 10Y Selected | 28.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.34% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.01% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0415 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6938 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1678 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5010 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0538 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6975 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2072 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5659 |
| Safety Score | 0.3266 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.59% | -0.97% | -0.35% | 0.27% | 0.89% | 1.51% | 2.14% | 2.76% | 3.38% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 34.97 | 34.63 | 34.51 | 34.60 | 34.91 | 35.44 | 36.20 | 37.20 | 38.45 | 39.99 |
| EBITDA | 18.60 | 18.42 | 18.36 | 18.41 | 18.57 | 18.85 | 19.25 | 19.78 | 20.45 | 21.27 |
| D&A | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.24 |
| EBIT | 18.39 | 18.21 | 18.15 | 18.20 | 18.36 | 18.64 | 19.04 | 19.56 | 20.22 | 21.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -5.03 | -4.99 | -4.97 | -4.98 | -5.03 | -5.10 | -5.21 | -5.35 | -5.54 | -5.76 |
| NOPAT | 13.36 | 13.23 | 13.18 | 13.22 | 13.33 | 13.54 | 13.82 | 14.21 | 14.69 | 15.27 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.24 | -0.24 | -0.25 | -0.26 |
| NWC Investment | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| (+) D&A | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13.33 | 13.21 | 13.16 | 13.20 | 13.32 | 13.52 | 13.81 | 14.19 | 14.68 | 15.27 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 | 7,906,462.50 |
| Metric | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | Sep-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 10/1/26 | 10/1/27 | 10/1/28 | 10/1/29 | 10/1/30 | 10/1/31 | 10/1/32 | 10/1/33 | 10/1/34 |
| Period End | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 | 9/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 3/31/26 | 4/1/27 | 3/31/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 3/31/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 | 4/1/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.20 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 3.21 | 4.21 | 5.21 | 6.21 | 7.21 | 8.21 | 9.21 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.10 | 11.88 | 10.86 | 9.98 | 9.23 | 8.59 | 8.04 | 7.58 | 7.18 | 6.85 | Raw: 201.90 133.97 |
Raw: 231.42 99.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 189.03 | 192.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | -28.32 | -28.32 |
| Equity Value | 217.35 | 220.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 7.91 | 7.91 |
| Fair Value | $27.49 | $27.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.34% | 67.34% |
| Buy Price | $8.98 | $9.13 |
| Current Price | $24.89 | $24.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.93% | -63.33% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.08 | 11.75 | 10.64 | 9.69 | 8.88 | 8.19 | 7.60 | 7.09 | 6.66 | 6.29 | Raw: 164.39 104.49 |
Raw: 188.42 74.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 158.54 | 163.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | -28.32 | -28.32 |
| Equity Value | 186.86 | 192.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 7.91 | 7.91 |
| Fair Value | $23.63 | $24.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.34% | 67.34% |
| Buy Price | $7.72 | $7.94 |
| Current Price | $24.89 | $24.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.99% | -68.09% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.13 | 12.02 | 11.08 | 10.28 | 9.60 | 9.01 | 8.52 | 8.10 | 7.74 | 7.45 | Raw: 260.84 180.76 |
Raw: 298.98 140.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 236.86 | 237.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | -28.32 | -28.32 |
| Equity Value | 265.17 | 265.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 7.91 | 7.91 |
| Fair Value | $33.54 | $33.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 67.34% | 67.34% |
| Buy Price | $10.95 | $10.97 |
| Current Price | $24.89 | $24.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.99% | -55.92% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 86.00 | 208.13 | 503.69 | 1,218.95 | 2,949.91 | 7,138.92 | 17,276.50 | 41,809.89 | 101,181.77 | 244,864.32 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 1.73 | 4.18 | 10.12 | 24.49 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 2.05 | 4.54 | 10.07 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-09-30 | $8.29 | 0.25% | $22.94 | 176.68% |
| 2019 | 2019-09-30 | $10.81 | -6.64% | $21.30 | 97.05% |
| 2018 | 2018-09-30 | $13.75 | -12.41% | $23.44 | 70.49% |
| 2017 | 2017-09-30 | $15.44 | -13.48% | $19.24 | 24.59% |
| 2016 | 2016-09-30 | $23.65 | -13.06% | $15.94 | -32.59% |
| 2015 | 2015-09-30 | $15.84 | -10.20% | $11.51 | -27.32% |
| 2014 | 2014-09-30 | $13.25 | 2.00% | $15.17 | 14.51% |
| 2013 | 2013-09-30 | $6.27 | 14.59% | $17.91 | 185.59% |
| 2012 | 2012-09-30 | $1.91 | 23.50% | $9.65 | 405.44% |
| 2011 | 2011-09-30 | $2.00 | 48.15% | $20.52 | 926.09% |
| 2010 | 2010-09-30 | $1.57 | 50.45% | $23.72 | 1,410.55% |
| 2009 | 2009-09-30 | $2.13 | 40.84% | $-16.50 | -874.60% |
| 2008 | 2008-09-30 | $3.37 | 27.19% | $12.20 | 262.15% |
| 2007 | 2007-09-30 | $6.87 | -5.16% | $8.74 | 27.20% |
| 2006 | 2006-09-30 | $11.11 | -18.14% | $4.45 | -59.94% |
| 2005 | 2005-09-30 | $7.70 | -26.27% | $0.94 | -87.83% |
| 2004 | 2004-09-30 | $5.14 | -20.09% | $2.08 | -59.59% |
| 2003 | 2003-09-30 | $3.75 | 3.66% | $3.06 | -18.37% |
| 2002 | 2002-09-30 | $2.17 | 29.32% | $2.75 | 26.57% |
| 2001 | 2001-09-30 | $2.17 | 45.08% | $14.32 | 560.03% |
| $20.45 - $22.11 | 13 |
| $22.11 - $23.76 | 76 |
| $23.76 - $25.42 | 141 |
| $25.42 - $27.08 | 184 |
| $27.08 - $28.74 | 163 |
| $28.74 - $30.40 | 145 |
| $30.40 - $32.06 | 113 |
| $32.06 - $33.72 | 62 |
| $33.72 - $35.37 | 44 |
| $35.37 - $37.03 | 19 |
| $37.03 - $38.69 | 17 |
| $38.69 - $40.35 | 10 |
| $40.35 - $42.01 | 6 |
| $42.01 - $43.67 | 3 |
| $43.67 - $45.32 | 1 |
| $45.32 - $46.98 | 2 |
| $46.98 - $48.64 | 0 |
| $48.64 - $50.30 | 0 |
| $50.30 - $51.96 | 0 |
| $51.96 - $53.62 | 1 |