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AGCO Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$108.33
5Y Range91.96 – 153.83
5Y Selected122.90
(-) Safety Margin83.68%
5Y Buy Price$20.06
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.49%
10Y Range109.40 – 176.23
10Y Selected142.82
(-) Safety Margin83.68%
10Y Buy Price$23.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-78.48%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4582
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8102
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1294
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0651
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0835
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1179
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3338
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2194
Safety Score0.1632

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.92%7.49%7.05%6.62%6.18%5.74%5.31%4.87%4.44%4.00%
Revenue12,585.9413,528.3214,482.2915,440.3916,394.5717,336.2418,256.4219,145.8519,995.1520,794.96
EBITDA1,293.151,389.971,487.991,586.431,684.471,781.221,875.771,967.152,054.412,136.59
D&A-352.85-379.27-406.01-432.87-459.62-486.02-511.82-536.76-560.57-582.99
EBIT940.301,010.711,081.981,153.561,224.841,295.201,363.941,430.391,493.841,553.60
Pro forma Taxes-262.55-282.21-302.11-322.10-342.01-361.65-380.85-399.40-417.12-433.80
NOPAT677.74728.49779.86831.45882.84933.54983.101,030.991,076.731,119.79
Capital Expenditures-366.90-394.37-422.18-450.11-477.93-505.38-532.20-558.13-582.89-606.21
NWC Investment-111.78-114.00-115.40-115.90-115.43-113.91-111.31-107.59-102.74-96.75
(+) D&A352.85379.27406.01432.87459.62486.02511.82536.76560.57582.99
Free Cash Flow551.91599.39648.29698.32749.11800.28851.40902.02951.66999.83
Diluted Shares Outstanding74,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.0074,700,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.41%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF547.13575.85570.90563.67554.24542.72529.24513.95497.02478.62
Raw: 11,461.76
8,118.89
Raw: 15,297.91
7,011.22

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,930.6812,384.56
(-) Net Debt2,267.882,267.88
Equity Value8,662.8110,116.69
(/) Shares Out74.7074.70
Fair Value$115.97$135.43
(-) Safety Margin83.68%83.68%
Buy Price$18.93$22.10
Current Price$108.33$108.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.53%-79.60%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.91%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF546.63573.44563.34551.16537.02521.08503.52484.53464.31443.07
Raw: 9,317.56
6,365.84
Raw: 12,436.07
5,252.18

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,137.4310,440.28
(-) Net Debt2,267.882,267.88
Equity Value6,869.558,172.40
(/) Shares Out74.7074.70
Fair Value$91.96$109.40
(-) Safety Margin83.68%83.68%
Buy Price$15.01$17.85
Current Price$108.33$108.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.15%-83.52%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.91%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF547.63578.30578.62576.58572.18565.48556.53545.45532.36517.40
Raw: 14,844.69
10,905.69
Raw: 19,813.07
9,861.56

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value13,759.0115,432.10
(-) Net Debt2,267.882,267.88
Equity Value11,491.1313,164.22
(/) Shares Out74.7074.70
Fair Value$153.83$176.23
(-) Safety Margin83.68%83.68%
Buy Price$25.11$28.76
Current Price$108.33$108.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.83%-73.45%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$108.33
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH107.91%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue20,893.1043,438.8890,313.83187,771.63390,396.30811,673.561,687,551.763,508,591.507,294,718.0615,166,459.72
Constant Implied Growth107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%107.91%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.094.349.0318.7839.0481.17168.76350.86729.471,516.65
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF1.943.516.6812.7324.2746.2588.13167.96320.08609.99

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$77.257.59%$101.8831.88%
20182018-12-31$55.6712.99%$115.44107.36%
20172017-12-31$71.439.36%$88.8324.36%
20162016-12-31$57.867.25%$27.09-53.17%
20152015-12-31$45.397.13%$64.4241.92%
20142014-12-31$45.209.13%$24.87-44.98%
20132013-12-31$59.194.59%$74.4825.83%
20122012-12-31$49.12-2.53%$39.89-18.78%
20112011-12-31$42.97-4.95%$45.766.50%
20102010-12-31$50.66-1.19%$41.78-17.53%
20092009-12-31$32.348.63%$32.340.00%
20082008-12-31$23.5911.88%$9.66-59.05%
20072007-12-31$67.984.65%$71.865.71%
20062006-12-31$30.942.02%$52.4869.61%
20052005-12-31$16.573.96%$19.6818.78%
20042004-12-31$21.897.81%$36.2165.42%
20032003-12-31$20.1410.27%$-4.61-122.90%
20022002-12-31$22.109.25%$-2.60-111.75%
20012001-12-31$15.7810.97%$58.11268.23%
20002000-12-31$12.1313.64%$38.93220.94%
19991999-12-31$13.4410.79%$65.61388.18%
19981998-12-31$7.882.44%$-46.19-686.16%
19971997-12-31$29.25-5.27%$-62.84-314.83%
19961996-12-31$28.63-9.02%$19.62-31.48%
19951995-12-31$25.25-3.86%$-13.61-153.89%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$140.08
Median
$136.13
10th Percentile
$107.47
90th Percentile
$178.04

Fair Value Distribution

$76.31 - $88.80
5
$88.80 - $101.28
39
$101.28 - $113.77
129
$113.77 - $126.25
190
$126.25 - $138.74
185
$138.74 - $151.22
155
$151.22 - $163.71
118
$163.71 - $176.19
68
$176.19 - $188.68
58
$188.68 - $201.16
20
$201.16 - $213.65
11
$213.65 - $226.13
9
$226.13 - $238.62
2
$238.62 - $251.10
3
$251.10 - $263.59
2
$263.59 - $276.07
3
$276.07 - $288.56
1
$288.56 - $301.04
0
$301.04 - $313.53
1
$313.53 - $326.01
1