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Motorola Solutions, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$366.91
5Y Range181.39 – 291.34
5Y Selected236.36
(-) Safety Margin34.62%
5Y Buy Price$154.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-57.88%
10Y Range202.76 – 314.89
10Y Selected258.82
(-) Safety Margin34.62%
10Y Buy Price$169.22
Upside (to Buy Price)-53.88%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9991
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9467
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8436
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7108
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8193
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9189
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8804
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8726
Safety Score0.6538

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.39%7.01%6.64%6.26%5.88%5.51%5.13%4.75%4.38%4.00%
Revenue11,616.5712,431.4713,256.6814,086.7014,915.6115,737.0916,544.4917,330.9818,089.5318,813.11
EBITDA3,419.363,659.223,902.124,146.444,390.444,632.244,869.905,101.405,324.685,537.67
D&A-518.83-555.23-592.08-629.15-666.17-702.86-738.93-774.05-807.93-840.25
EBIT2,900.533,104.003,310.043,517.293,724.263,929.374,130.974,327.354,516.754,697.42
Pro forma Taxes-771.86-826.01-880.84-935.99-991.06-1,045.65-1,099.29-1,151.55-1,201.95-1,250.03
NOPAT2,128.672,277.992,429.212,581.302,733.202,883.733,031.683,175.803,314.803,447.39
Capital Expenditures-345.40-369.62-394.16-418.84-443.49-467.91-491.92-515.30-537.86-559.37
NWC Investment5.175.275.345.375.365.315.225.094.914.68
(+) D&A518.83555.23592.08629.15666.17702.86738.93774.05807.93840.25
Free Cash Flow2,307.272,468.862,632.462,796.992,961.253,123.993,283.913,439.633,589.783,732.95
Diluted Shares Outstanding169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00169,600,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/27/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/13/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.47%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF2,287.272,371.932,318.202,257.672,190.932,118.592,041.321,959.821,874.801,786.99
Raw: 45,806.02
32,446.51
Raw: 57,743.07
26,464.36

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value43,872.5147,671.87
(-) Net Debt5,894.505,894.50
Equity Value37,978.0141,777.37
(/) Shares Out169.60169.60
Fair Value$223.93$246.33
(-) Safety Margin34.62%34.62%
Buy Price$146.40$161.05
Current Price$366.91$366.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-60.10%-56.11%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF2,285.182,361.992,287.522,207.562,122.842,034.111,942.121,847.641,751.431,654.24
Raw: 37,166.92
25,392.77
Raw: 46,852.62
19,787.47

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value36,657.8640,282.09
(-) Net Debt5,894.505,894.50
Equity Value30,763.3634,387.59
(/) Shares Out169.60169.60
Fair Value$181.39$202.76
(-) Safety Margin34.62%34.62%
Buy Price$118.59$132.56
Current Price$366.91$366.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-67.68%-63.87%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF2,289.382,381.992,349.572,309.402,261.862,207.412,146.582,079.942,008.111,931.77
Raw: 59,502.49
43,713.67
Raw: 75,008.85
37,334.15

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value55,305.8659,300.15
(-) Net Debt5,894.505,894.50
Equity Value49,411.3653,405.65
(/) Shares Out169.60169.60
Fair Value$291.34$314.89
(-) Safety Margin34.62%34.62%
Buy Price$190.48$205.88
Current Price$366.91$366.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-48.09%-43.89%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$366.91
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH148.41%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue28,102.9769,811.46173,420.80430,799.971,070,163.512,658,426.196,603,878.5316,404,898.4640,751,914.50101,233,088.40
Constant Implied Growth148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.816.9817.3443.08107.02265.84660.391,640.494,075.1910,123.31
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF2.615.6412.8329.2266.52151.47344.89785.311,788.144,071.54

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$161.1410.06%$190.5418.25%
20182018-12-31$115.046.87%$79.81-30.62%
20172017-12-31$90.345.03%$108.6920.31%
20162016-12-31$82.894.40%$76.28-7.98%
20152015-12-31$68.455.95%$68.990.79%
20142014-12-31$67.0811.95%$-76.40-213.90%
20132013-12-31$67.5014.73%$82.2121.79%
20122012-12-31$55.6814.25%$81.7546.82%
20112011-12-31$46.2912.10%$52.9714.42%
20102010-12-31$36.284.09%$92.34154.52%
20092009-12-31$31.040.46%$13.43-56.72%
20082008-12-31$17.72-17.83%$-8.72-149.21%
20072007-12-31$64.16-37.48%$-3.47-105.40%
20062006-12-31$82.24-44.18%$9.80-88.09%
20052005-12-31$90.36-40.56%$21.08-76.68%
20042004-12-31$68.80-14.57%$74.157.77%
20032003-12-31$51.782.09%$106.36105.41%
20022002-12-31$32.0012.50%$50.5758.04%
20012001-12-31$55.5611.16%$40.37-27.34%
20002000-12-31$74.901.14%$-294.92-493.75%
19991999-12-31$181.55-9.50%$-37.02-120.39%
19981998-12-31$75.29-15.65%$-78.00-203.60%
19971997-12-31$70.51-10.25%$-17.98-125.50%
19961996-12-31$75.52-3.84%$53.64-28.97%
19951995-12-31$70.282.71%$-85.38-221.48%
19941994-12-31$71.511.69%$-54.36-176.02%
19931993-12-31$56.876.02%$5.81-89.79%
19921992-12-31$32.2113.14%$58.8282.62%
19911991-12-31$20.1119.00%$-0.64-103.20%
19901990-12-31$16.1422.00%$1.86-88.45%
19891989-12-31$18.8014.65%$8.80-53.18%
19881988-12-31$12.9510.60%$-4.75-136.67%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$252.78
Median
$244.34
10th Percentile
$197.92
90th Percentile
$316.22

Fair Value Distribution

$157.20 - $173.26
10
$173.26 - $189.32
33
$189.32 - $205.37
99
$205.37 - $221.43
134
$221.43 - $237.49
174
$237.49 - $253.55
112
$253.55 - $269.60
143
$269.60 - $285.66
85
$285.66 - $301.72
72
$301.72 - $317.77
41
$317.77 - $333.83
35
$333.83 - $349.89
19
$349.89 - $365.94
13
$365.94 - $382.00
10
$382.00 - $398.06
6
$398.06 - $414.11
4
$414.11 - $430.17
5
$430.17 - $446.23
3
$446.23 - $462.28
0
$462.28 - $478.34
1