| Current Price | $366.91 |
| 5Y Range | 181.39 – 291.34 |
| 5Y Selected | 236.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.62% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $154.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.88% |
| 10Y Range | 202.76 – 314.89 |
| 10Y Selected | 258.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.62% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $169.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9991 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9467 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8436 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7108 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8193 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9189 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8804 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8726 |
| Safety Score | 0.6538 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.39% | 7.01% | 6.64% | 6.26% | 5.88% | 5.51% | 5.13% | 4.75% | 4.38% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 11,616.57 | 12,431.47 | 13,256.68 | 14,086.70 | 14,915.61 | 15,737.09 | 16,544.49 | 17,330.98 | 18,089.53 | 18,813.11 |
| EBITDA | 3,419.36 | 3,659.22 | 3,902.12 | 4,146.44 | 4,390.44 | 4,632.24 | 4,869.90 | 5,101.40 | 5,324.68 | 5,537.67 |
| D&A | -518.83 | -555.23 | -592.08 | -629.15 | -666.17 | -702.86 | -738.93 | -774.05 | -807.93 | -840.25 |
| EBIT | 2,900.53 | 3,104.00 | 3,310.04 | 3,517.29 | 3,724.26 | 3,929.37 | 4,130.97 | 4,327.35 | 4,516.75 | 4,697.42 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -771.86 | -826.01 | -880.84 | -935.99 | -991.06 | -1,045.65 | -1,099.29 | -1,151.55 | -1,201.95 | -1,250.03 |
| NOPAT | 2,128.67 | 2,277.99 | 2,429.21 | 2,581.30 | 2,733.20 | 2,883.73 | 3,031.68 | 3,175.80 | 3,314.80 | 3,447.39 |
| Capital Expenditures | -345.40 | -369.62 | -394.16 | -418.84 | -443.49 | -467.91 | -491.92 | -515.30 | -537.86 | -559.37 |
| NWC Investment | 5.17 | 5.27 | 5.34 | 5.37 | 5.36 | 5.31 | 5.22 | 5.09 | 4.91 | 4.68 |
| (+) D&A | 518.83 | 555.23 | 592.08 | 629.15 | 666.17 | 702.86 | 738.93 | 774.05 | 807.93 | 840.25 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,307.27 | 2,468.86 | 2,632.46 | 2,796.99 | 2,961.25 | 3,123.99 | 3,283.91 | 3,439.63 | 3,589.78 | 3,732.95 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 | 169,600,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/13/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,287.27 | 2,371.93 | 2,318.20 | 2,257.67 | 2,190.93 | 2,118.59 | 2,041.32 | 1,959.82 | 1,874.80 | 1,786.99 | Raw: 45,806.02 32,446.51 |
Raw: 57,743.07 26,464.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 43,872.51 | 47,671.87 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,894.50 | 5,894.50 |
| Equity Value | 37,978.01 | 41,777.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 169.60 | 169.60 |
| Fair Value | $223.93 | $246.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.62% | 34.62% |
| Buy Price | $146.40 | $161.05 |
| Current Price | $366.91 | $366.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -60.10% | -56.11% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,285.18 | 2,361.99 | 2,287.52 | 2,207.56 | 2,122.84 | 2,034.11 | 1,942.12 | 1,847.64 | 1,751.43 | 1,654.24 | Raw: 37,166.92 25,392.77 |
Raw: 46,852.62 19,787.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,657.86 | 40,282.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,894.50 | 5,894.50 |
| Equity Value | 30,763.36 | 34,387.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 169.60 | 169.60 |
| Fair Value | $181.39 | $202.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.62% | 34.62% |
| Buy Price | $118.59 | $132.56 |
| Current Price | $366.91 | $366.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -67.68% | -63.87% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,289.38 | 2,381.99 | 2,349.57 | 2,309.40 | 2,261.86 | 2,207.41 | 2,146.58 | 2,079.94 | 2,008.11 | 1,931.77 | Raw: 59,502.49 43,713.67 |
Raw: 75,008.85 37,334.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 55,305.86 | 59,300.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,894.50 | 5,894.50 |
| Equity Value | 49,411.36 | 53,405.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 169.60 | 169.60 |
| Fair Value | $291.34 | $314.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.62% | 34.62% |
| Buy Price | $190.48 | $205.88 |
| Current Price | $366.91 | $366.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.09% | -43.89% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 28,102.97 | 69,811.46 | 173,420.80 | 430,799.97 | 1,070,163.51 | 2,658,426.19 | 6,603,878.53 | 16,404,898.46 | 40,751,914.50 | 101,233,088.40 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.81 | 6.98 | 17.34 | 43.08 | 107.02 | 265.84 | 660.39 | 1,640.49 | 4,075.19 | 10,123.31 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.61 | 5.64 | 12.83 | 29.22 | 66.52 | 151.47 | 344.89 | 785.31 | 1,788.14 | 4,071.54 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $161.14 | 10.06% | $190.54 | 18.25% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $115.04 | 6.87% | $79.81 | -30.62% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $90.34 | 5.03% | $108.69 | 20.31% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $82.89 | 4.40% | $76.28 | -7.98% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $68.45 | 5.95% | $68.99 | 0.79% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $67.08 | 11.95% | $-76.40 | -213.90% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $67.50 | 14.73% | $82.21 | 21.79% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $55.68 | 14.25% | $81.75 | 46.82% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $46.29 | 12.10% | $52.97 | 14.42% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $36.28 | 4.09% | $92.34 | 154.52% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $31.04 | 0.46% | $13.43 | -56.72% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $17.72 | -17.83% | $-8.72 | -149.21% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $64.16 | -37.48% | $-3.47 | -105.40% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $82.24 | -44.18% | $9.80 | -88.09% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $90.36 | -40.56% | $21.08 | -76.68% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $68.80 | -14.57% | $74.15 | 7.77% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $51.78 | 2.09% | $106.36 | 105.41% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $32.00 | 12.50% | $50.57 | 58.04% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $55.56 | 11.16% | $40.37 | -27.34% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $74.90 | 1.14% | $-294.92 | -493.75% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $181.55 | -9.50% | $-37.02 | -120.39% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $75.29 | -15.65% | $-78.00 | -203.60% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $70.51 | -10.25% | $-17.98 | -125.50% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $75.52 | -3.84% | $53.64 | -28.97% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $70.28 | 2.71% | $-85.38 | -221.48% |
| 1994 | 1994-12-31 | $71.51 | 1.69% | $-54.36 | -176.02% |
| 1993 | 1993-12-31 | $56.87 | 6.02% | $5.81 | -89.79% |
| 1992 | 1992-12-31 | $32.21 | 13.14% | $58.82 | 82.62% |
| 1991 | 1991-12-31 | $20.11 | 19.00% | $-0.64 | -103.20% |
| 1990 | 1990-12-31 | $16.14 | 22.00% | $1.86 | -88.45% |
| 1989 | 1989-12-31 | $18.80 | 14.65% | $8.80 | -53.18% |
| 1988 | 1988-12-31 | $12.95 | 10.60% | $-4.75 | -136.67% |
| $157.20 - $173.26 | 10 |
| $173.26 - $189.32 | 33 |
| $189.32 - $205.37 | 99 |
| $205.37 - $221.43 | 134 |
| $221.43 - $237.49 | 174 |
| $237.49 - $253.55 | 112 |
| $253.55 - $269.60 | 143 |
| $269.60 - $285.66 | 85 |
| $285.66 - $301.72 | 72 |
| $301.72 - $317.77 | 41 |
| $317.77 - $333.83 | 35 |
| $333.83 - $349.89 | 19 |
| $349.89 - $365.94 | 13 |
| $365.94 - $382.00 | 10 |
| $382.00 - $398.06 | 6 |
| $398.06 - $414.11 | 4 |
| $414.11 - $430.17 | 5 |
| $430.17 - $446.23 | 3 |
| $446.23 - $462.28 | 0 |
| $462.28 - $478.34 | 1 |