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Crown Holdings, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$96.92
5Y Range118.46 – 201.08
5Y Selected159.77
(-) Safety Margin85.13%
5Y Buy Price$23.76
Upside (to Buy Price)-75.49%
10Y Range136.48 – 221.77
10Y Selected179.13
(-) Safety Margin85.13%
10Y Buy Price$26.64
Upside (to Buy Price)-72.52%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4287
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7040
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0474
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0025
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3318
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0849
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0797
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0620
Safety Score0.1487

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.92%7.48%7.05%6.61%6.18%5.74%5.31%4.87%4.44%4.00%
Revenue12,735.0813,687.6914,652.0115,620.5316,585.1217,537.1218,467.4819,366.8620,225.7821,034.81
EBITDA2,502.752,689.962,879.473,069.813,259.383,446.473,629.313,806.063,974.864,133.85
D&A-489.47-526.09-563.15-600.37-637.45-674.04-709.80-744.36-777.38-808.47
EBIT2,013.282,163.882,316.332,469.442,621.932,772.432,919.513,061.693,197.483,325.38
Pro forma Taxes-583.31-626.94-671.11-715.47-759.65-803.26-845.87-887.06-926.40-963.46
NOPAT1,429.971,536.941,645.221,753.971,862.281,969.182,073.642,174.632,271.072,361.92
Capital Expenditures-692.75-744.57-797.03-849.72-902.19-953.97-1,004.58-1,053.51-1,100.23-1,144.24
NWC Investment-8.95-9.13-9.24-9.28-9.24-9.12-8.92-8.62-8.23-7.75
(+) D&A489.47526.09563.15600.37637.45674.04709.80744.36777.38808.47
Free Cash Flow1,217.741,309.321,402.091,495.351,588.301,680.121,769.941,856.871,939.992,018.40
Diluted Shares Outstanding116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75116,775,267.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.35%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF1,207.181,257.911,234.711,207.011,175.131,139.401,100.221,058.001,013.18966.22
Raw: 24,098.03
17,069.74
Raw: 30,623.64
14,035.19

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value23,151.6925,394.15
(-) Net Debt5,566.505,566.50
Equity Value17,585.1919,827.65
(/) Shares Out116.78116.78
Fair Value$150.59$169.79
(-) Safety Margin85.13%85.13%
Buy Price$22.39$25.25
Current Price$96.92$96.92
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.90%-73.95%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF1,206.081,252.641,218.371,180.221,138.611,093.961,046.75997.44946.51894.44
Raw: 19,618.14
13,403.28
Raw: 24,930.61
10,529.05

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,399.2121,504.08
(-) Net Debt5,566.505,566.50
Equity Value13,832.7115,937.58
(/) Shares Out116.78116.78
Fair Value$118.46$136.48
(-) Safety Margin85.13%85.13%
Buy Price$17.61$20.29
Current Price$96.92$96.92
Upside (to Buy Price)-81.83%-79.06%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF1,208.291,263.251,251.421,234.671,213.171,187.171,156.951,122.841,085.231,044.50
Raw: 31,139.81
22,876.94
Raw: 39,572.29
19,696.31

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value29,047.7531,463.81
(-) Net Debt5,566.505,566.50
Equity Value23,481.2525,897.31
(/) Shares Out116.78116.78
Fair Value$201.08$221.77
(-) Safety Margin85.13%85.13%
Buy Price$29.90$32.98
Current Price$96.92$96.92
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.15%-65.97%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$96.92
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH114.32%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue26,020.4555,766.73119,518.62256,150.92548,979.701,176,566.972,521,604.775,404,274.2911,582,378.3824,823,219.88
Constant Implied Growth114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%114.32%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.605.5811.9525.6254.90117.66252.16540.431,158.242,482.32
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF2.424.508.8417.3734.1367.04131.69258.71508.22998.38

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$72.549.17%$65.74-9.38%
20182018-12-31$41.5710.97%$-40.48-197.38%
20172017-12-31$56.255.97%$-143.88-355.79%
20162016-12-31$52.572.53%$23.92-54.49%
20152015-12-31$50.704.44%$44.47-12.29%
20142014-12-31$50.905.92%$51.140.47%
20132013-12-31$44.574.92%$58.3830.98%
20122012-12-31$36.81-0.17%$7.56-79.47%
20112011-12-31$33.581.03%$-23.31-169.42%
20102010-12-31$33.383.38%$13.34-60.03%
20092009-12-31$25.586.31%$56.95122.62%
20082008-12-31$19.205.54%$12.59-34.44%
20072007-12-31$25.653.19%$19.39-24.39%
20062006-12-31$20.923.05%$-1.89-109.02%
20052005-12-31$19.533.71%$-51.00-361.14%
20042004-12-31$13.746.18%$11.16-18.75%
20032003-12-31$9.065.18%$12.7740.93%
20022002-12-31$7.953.13%$10.7535.17%
20012001-12-31$2.54-2.88%$-23.78-1,036.04%
20002000-12-31$7.44-8.02%$-38.85-622.18%
19991999-12-31$22.38-9.22%$0.62-97.24%
19981998-12-31$30.81-10.73%$-31.92-203.60%
19971997-12-31$50.13-7.26%$-47.49-194.73%
19961996-12-31$54.38-4.34%$-11.87-121.83%
19951995-12-31$42.13-3.65%$-60.55-243.71%
19941994-12-31$37.752.29%$-100.87-367.22%
19931993-12-31$41.887.52%$4.37-89.57%
19921992-12-31$39.889.56%$1.42-96.44%
19911991-12-31$29.9210.51%$14.09-52.91%
19901990-12-31$18.926.20%$-9.01-147.61%
19891989-12-31$17.717.64%$4.27-75.92%
19881988-12-31$15.4215.73%$0.06-99.64%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$176.78
Median
$172.00
10th Percentile
$136.32
90th Percentile
$220.13

Fair Value Distribution

$110.68 - $129.11
47
$129.11 - $147.53
153
$147.53 - $165.95
240
$165.95 - $184.37
219
$184.37 - $202.79
155
$202.79 - $221.21
88
$221.21 - $239.63
38
$239.63 - $258.05
28
$258.05 - $276.47
12
$276.47 - $294.89
7
$294.89 - $313.31
2
$313.31 - $331.73
7
$331.73 - $350.15
2
$350.15 - $368.57
0
$368.57 - $386.99
0
$386.99 - $405.41
0
$405.41 - $423.83
0
$423.83 - $442.25
1
$442.25 - $460.68
0
$460.68 - $479.10
1