| Current Price | $96.92 |
| 5Y Range | 118.46 – 201.08 |
| 5Y Selected | 159.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.49% |
| 10Y Range | 136.48 – 221.77 |
| 10Y Selected | 179.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $26.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.52% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4287 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7040 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0474 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0025 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3318 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0849 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0797 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0620 |
| Safety Score | 0.1487 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.92% | 7.48% | 7.05% | 6.61% | 6.18% | 5.74% | 5.31% | 4.87% | 4.44% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 12,735.08 | 13,687.69 | 14,652.01 | 15,620.53 | 16,585.12 | 17,537.12 | 18,467.48 | 19,366.86 | 20,225.78 | 21,034.81 |
| EBITDA | 2,502.75 | 2,689.96 | 2,879.47 | 3,069.81 | 3,259.38 | 3,446.47 | 3,629.31 | 3,806.06 | 3,974.86 | 4,133.85 |
| D&A | -489.47 | -526.09 | -563.15 | -600.37 | -637.45 | -674.04 | -709.80 | -744.36 | -777.38 | -808.47 |
| EBIT | 2,013.28 | 2,163.88 | 2,316.33 | 2,469.44 | 2,621.93 | 2,772.43 | 2,919.51 | 3,061.69 | 3,197.48 | 3,325.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -583.31 | -626.94 | -671.11 | -715.47 | -759.65 | -803.26 | -845.87 | -887.06 | -926.40 | -963.46 |
| NOPAT | 1,429.97 | 1,536.94 | 1,645.22 | 1,753.97 | 1,862.28 | 1,969.18 | 2,073.64 | 2,174.63 | 2,271.07 | 2,361.92 |
| Capital Expenditures | -692.75 | -744.57 | -797.03 | -849.72 | -902.19 | -953.97 | -1,004.58 | -1,053.51 | -1,100.23 | -1,144.24 |
| NWC Investment | -8.95 | -9.13 | -9.24 | -9.28 | -9.24 | -9.12 | -8.92 | -8.62 | -8.23 | -7.75 |
| (+) D&A | 489.47 | 526.09 | 563.15 | 600.37 | 637.45 | 674.04 | 709.80 | 744.36 | 777.38 | 808.47 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,217.74 | 1,309.32 | 1,402.09 | 1,495.35 | 1,588.30 | 1,680.12 | 1,769.94 | 1,856.87 | 1,939.99 | 2,018.40 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 | 116,775,267.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,207.18 | 1,257.91 | 1,234.71 | 1,207.01 | 1,175.13 | 1,139.40 | 1,100.22 | 1,058.00 | 1,013.18 | 966.22 | Raw: 24,098.03 17,069.74 |
Raw: 30,623.64 14,035.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,151.69 | 25,394.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,566.50 | 5,566.50 |
| Equity Value | 17,585.19 | 19,827.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 116.78 | 116.78 |
| Fair Value | $150.59 | $169.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $22.39 | $25.25 |
| Current Price | $96.92 | $96.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.90% | -73.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,206.08 | 1,252.64 | 1,218.37 | 1,180.22 | 1,138.61 | 1,093.96 | 1,046.75 | 997.44 | 946.51 | 894.44 | Raw: 19,618.14 13,403.28 |
Raw: 24,930.61 10,529.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,399.21 | 21,504.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,566.50 | 5,566.50 |
| Equity Value | 13,832.71 | 15,937.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 116.78 | 116.78 |
| Fair Value | $118.46 | $136.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $17.61 | $20.29 |
| Current Price | $96.92 | $96.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.83% | -79.06% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,208.29 | 1,263.25 | 1,251.42 | 1,234.67 | 1,213.17 | 1,187.17 | 1,156.95 | 1,122.84 | 1,085.23 | 1,044.50 | Raw: 31,139.81 22,876.94 |
Raw: 39,572.29 19,696.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,047.75 | 31,463.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,566.50 | 5,566.50 |
| Equity Value | 23,481.25 | 25,897.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 116.78 | 116.78 |
| Fair Value | $201.08 | $221.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $29.90 | $32.98 |
| Current Price | $96.92 | $96.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.15% | -65.97% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 26,020.45 | 55,766.73 | 119,518.62 | 256,150.92 | 548,979.70 | 1,176,566.97 | 2,521,604.77 | 5,404,274.29 | 11,582,378.38 | 24,823,219.88 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% | 114.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.60 | 5.58 | 11.95 | 25.62 | 54.90 | 117.66 | 252.16 | 540.43 | 1,158.24 | 2,482.32 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.42 | 4.50 | 8.84 | 17.37 | 34.13 | 67.04 | 131.69 | 258.71 | 508.22 | 998.38 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $72.54 | 9.17% | $65.74 | -9.38% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $41.57 | 10.97% | $-40.48 | -197.38% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $56.25 | 5.97% | $-143.88 | -355.79% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $52.57 | 2.53% | $23.92 | -54.49% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $50.70 | 4.44% | $44.47 | -12.29% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $50.90 | 5.92% | $51.14 | 0.47% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $44.57 | 4.92% | $58.38 | 30.98% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $36.81 | -0.17% | $7.56 | -79.47% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $33.58 | 1.03% | $-23.31 | -169.42% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $33.38 | 3.38% | $13.34 | -60.03% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.58 | 6.31% | $56.95 | 122.62% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $19.20 | 5.54% | $12.59 | -34.44% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $25.65 | 3.19% | $19.39 | -24.39% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $20.92 | 3.05% | $-1.89 | -109.02% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $19.53 | 3.71% | $-51.00 | -361.14% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $13.74 | 6.18% | $11.16 | -18.75% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $9.06 | 5.18% | $12.77 | 40.93% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $7.95 | 3.13% | $10.75 | 35.17% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.54 | -2.88% | $-23.78 | -1,036.04% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $7.44 | -8.02% | $-38.85 | -622.18% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $22.38 | -9.22% | $0.62 | -97.24% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $30.81 | -10.73% | $-31.92 | -203.60% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $50.13 | -7.26% | $-47.49 | -194.73% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $54.38 | -4.34% | $-11.87 | -121.83% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $42.13 | -3.65% | $-60.55 | -243.71% |
| 1994 | 1994-12-31 | $37.75 | 2.29% | $-100.87 | -367.22% |
| 1993 | 1993-12-31 | $41.88 | 7.52% | $4.37 | -89.57% |
| 1992 | 1992-12-31 | $39.88 | 9.56% | $1.42 | -96.44% |
| 1991 | 1991-12-31 | $29.92 | 10.51% | $14.09 | -52.91% |
| 1990 | 1990-12-31 | $18.92 | 6.20% | $-9.01 | -147.61% |
| 1989 | 1989-12-31 | $17.71 | 7.64% | $4.27 | -75.92% |
| 1988 | 1988-12-31 | $15.42 | 15.73% | $0.06 | -99.64% |
| $110.68 - $129.11 | 47 |
| $129.11 - $147.53 | 153 |
| $147.53 - $165.95 | 240 |
| $165.95 - $184.37 | 219 |
| $184.37 - $202.79 | 155 |
| $202.79 - $221.21 | 88 |
| $221.21 - $239.63 | 38 |
| $239.63 - $258.05 | 28 |
| $258.05 - $276.47 | 12 |
| $276.47 - $294.89 | 7 |
| $294.89 - $313.31 | 2 |
| $313.31 - $331.73 | 7 |
| $331.73 - $350.15 | 2 |
| $350.15 - $368.57 | 0 |
| $368.57 - $386.99 | 0 |
| $386.99 - $405.41 | 0 |
| $405.41 - $423.83 | 0 |
| $423.83 - $442.25 | 1 |
| $442.25 - $460.68 | 0 |
| $460.68 - $479.10 | 1 |