Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $71.23 |
| 5Y Range | 121.18 – 188.97 |
| 5Y Selected | 155.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $31.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.26% |
| 10Y Range | 138.37 – 210.70 |
| 10Y Selected | 174.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $35.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.65% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7140 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9576 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0269 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0694 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0526 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4086 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1467 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2933 |
| Safety Score | 0.2055 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.54% | 9.81% | 9.08% | 8.36% | 7.63% | 6.91% | 6.18% | 5.45% | 4.73% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 18,017.59 | 19,785.30 | 21,582.72 | 23,386.66 | 25,171.50 | 26,909.72 | 28,572.51 | 30,130.50 | 31,554.58 | 32,816.76 |
| EBITDA | 5,402.87 | 5,932.95 | 6,471.93 | 7,012.88 | 7,548.09 | 8,069.32 | 8,567.94 | 9,035.13 | 9,462.16 | 9,840.65 |
| D&A | -408.49 | -448.57 | -489.32 | -530.22 | -570.69 | -610.09 | -647.79 | -683.12 | -715.40 | -744.02 |
| EBIT | 4,994.38 | 5,484.38 | 5,982.61 | 6,482.66 | 6,977.40 | 7,459.23 | 7,920.14 | 8,352.01 | 8,746.76 | 9,096.63 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,273.79 | -1,398.77 | -1,525.84 | -1,653.37 | -1,779.56 | -1,902.44 | -2,020.00 | -2,130.14 | -2,230.82 | -2,320.05 |
| NOPAT | 3,720.59 | 4,085.61 | 4,456.78 | 4,829.28 | 5,197.85 | 5,556.79 | 5,900.15 | 6,221.87 | 6,515.94 | 6,776.57 |
| Capital Expenditures | -423.37 | -464.91 | -507.14 | -549.53 | -591.47 | -632.31 | -671.39 | -708.00 | -741.46 | -771.12 |
| NWC Investment | -128.49 | -132.24 | -134.46 | -134.95 | -133.52 | -130.03 | -124.39 | -116.55 | -106.53 | -94.42 |
| (+) D&A | 408.49 | 448.57 | 489.32 | 530.22 | 570.69 | 610.09 | 647.79 | 683.12 | 715.40 | 744.02 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,577.22 | 3,937.04 | 4,304.49 | 4,675.02 | 5,043.54 | 5,404.53 | 5,752.16 | 6,080.44 | 6,383.35 | 6,655.05 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 | 458,750,000.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,546.20 | 3,624.46 | 3,632.28 | 3,612.82 | 3,572.57 | 3,509.03 | 3,423.29 | 3,316.88 | 3,191.74 | 3,050.09 | Raw: 78,084.39 52,954.32 |
Raw: 103,033.90 45,209.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 70,942.65 | 79,689.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,322.50 | 3,322.50 |
| Equity Value | 67,620.15 | 76,366.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 458.75 | 458.75 |
| Fair Value | $147.40 | $166.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% | 79.45% |
| Buy Price | $30.29 | $34.21 |
| Current Price | $71.23 | $71.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.47% | -51.97% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,542.97 | 3,593.18 | 3,568.22 | 3,516.55 | 3,445.79 | 3,353.76 | 3,242.10 | 3,112.79 | 2,968.14 | 2,810.66 | Raw: 63,347.92 41,247.36 |
Raw: 83,588.83 33,644.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 58,914.07 | 66,798.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,322.50 | 3,322.50 |
| Equity Value | 55,591.57 | 63,476.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 458.75 | 458.75 |
| Fair Value | $121.18 | $138.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% | 79.45% |
| Buy Price | $24.90 | $28.43 |
| Current Price | $71.23 | $71.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.04% | -60.08% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,549.47 | 3,656.31 | 3,698.09 | 3,712.65 | 3,705.25 | 3,673.01 | 3,616.41 | 3,536.42 | 3,434.47 | 3,312.42 | Raw: 101,456.86 71,689.36 |
Raw: 133,874.34 64,088.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 90,011.12 | 99,983.32 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,322.50 | 3,322.50 |
| Equity Value | 86,688.62 | 96,660.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 458.75 | 458.75 |
| Fair Value | $188.97 | $210.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% | 79.45% |
| Buy Price | $38.83 | $43.30 |
| Current Price | $71.23 | $71.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.48% | -39.21% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 36,784.96 | 82,137.52 | 183,405.69 | 409,528.43 | 914,440.19 | 2,041,862.80 | 4,559,296.18 | 10,180,498.73 | 22,732,139.02 | 50,758,824.09 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% | 123.29% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.68 | 8.21 | 18.34 | 40.95 | 91.44 | 204.19 | 455.93 | 1,018.05 | 2,273.21 | 5,075.88 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.50 | 6.93 | 14.17 | 29.01 | 59.37 | 121.52 | 248.71 | 509.03 | 1,041.84 | 2,132.34 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $26.82 | 11.33% | $73.55 | 174.25% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $35.92 | 10.08% | $79.80 | 122.17% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $50.86 | 10.67% | $46.26 | -9.05% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $50.86 | 9.96% | $54.50 | 7.16% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $50.86 | 8.26% | $34.31 | -32.53% |
| $111.13 - $124.44 | 24 |
| $124.44 - $137.76 | 97 |
| $137.76 - $151.07 | 152 |
| $151.07 - $164.38 | 192 |
| $164.38 - $177.69 | 163 |
| $177.69 - $191.00 | 146 |
| $191.00 - $204.32 | 81 |
| $204.32 - $217.63 | 49 |
| $217.63 - $230.94 | 29 |
| $230.94 - $244.25 | 30 |
| $244.25 - $257.57 | 16 |
| $257.57 - $270.88 | 7 |
| $270.88 - $284.19 | 5 |
| $284.19 - $297.50 | 3 |
| $297.50 - $310.82 | 4 |
| $310.82 - $324.13 | 1 |
| $324.13 - $337.44 | 0 |
| $337.44 - $350.75 | 0 |
| $350.75 - $364.07 | 0 |
| $364.07 - $377.38 | 1 |