Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $218.53 |
| 5Y Range | 156.38 – 255.60 |
| 5Y Selected | 205.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $36.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.48% |
| 10Y Range | 176.93 – 279.01 |
| 10Y Selected | 227.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $39.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.71% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9055 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9563 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0026 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0733 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6322 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3679 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0149 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0045 |
| Safety Score | 0.1753 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.04% | 7.59% | 7.14% | 6.69% | 6.24% | 5.79% | 5.35% | 4.90% | 4.45% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,137.70 | 6,603.47 | 7,074.96 | 7,548.38 | 8,019.62 | 8,484.31 | 8,937.86 | 9,375.56 | 9,792.64 | 10,184.34 |
| EBITDA | 2,586.94 | 2,783.25 | 2,981.98 | 3,181.52 | 3,380.13 | 3,575.99 | 3,767.15 | 3,951.64 | 4,127.43 | 4,292.53 |
| D&A | -621.17 | -668.31 | -716.02 | -763.94 | -811.63 | -858.66 | -904.56 | -948.86 | -991.07 | -1,030.71 |
| EBIT | 1,965.77 | 2,114.95 | 2,265.95 | 2,417.58 | 2,568.51 | 2,717.33 | 2,862.60 | 3,002.78 | 3,136.36 | 3,261.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -497.72 | -535.49 | -573.73 | -612.12 | -650.33 | -688.01 | -724.79 | -760.29 | -794.11 | -825.87 |
| NOPAT | 1,468.05 | 1,579.45 | 1,692.23 | 1,805.46 | 1,918.18 | 2,029.32 | 2,137.80 | 2,242.50 | 2,342.26 | 2,435.95 |
| Capital Expenditures | -577.95 | -621.81 | -666.20 | -710.78 | -755.15 | -798.91 | -841.62 | -882.83 | -922.11 | -958.99 |
| NWC Investment | -10.26 | -10.47 | -10.59 | -10.64 | -10.59 | -10.44 | -10.19 | -9.84 | -9.37 | -8.80 |
| (+) D&A | 621.17 | 668.31 | 716.02 | 763.94 | 811.63 | 858.66 | 904.56 | 948.86 | 991.07 | 1,030.71 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,501.01 | 1,615.49 | 1,731.46 | 1,847.98 | 1,964.06 | 2,078.63 | 2,190.55 | 2,298.68 | 2,401.84 | 2,498.86 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 | 124,825,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,488.00 | 1,552.06 | 1,524.75 | 1,491.65 | 1,453.15 | 1,409.66 | 1,361.68 | 1,309.73 | 1,254.39 | 1,196.22 | Raw: 30,404.53 21,536.93 |
Raw: 38,683.46 17,729.11 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,046.53 | 31,770.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,735.65 | 4,735.65 |
| Equity Value | 24,310.88 | 27,034.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 124.83 | 124.83 |
| Fair Value | $194.76 | $216.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.47% | 82.47% |
| Buy Price | $34.14 | $37.97 |
| Current Price | $218.53 | $218.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.38% | -82.63% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,486.64 | 1,545.56 | 1,504.57 | 1,458.55 | 1,407.99 | 1,353.44 | 1,295.50 | 1,234.76 | 1,171.84 | 1,107.36 | Raw: 24,666.88 16,852.63 |
Raw: 31,383.50 13,254.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,255.93 | 26,820.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,735.65 | 4,735.65 |
| Equity Value | 19,520.28 | 22,084.89 |
| (/) Shares Out | 124.83 | 124.83 |
| Fair Value | $156.38 | $176.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.47% | 82.47% |
| Buy Price | $27.41 | $31.02 |
| Current Price | $218.53 | $218.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.46% | -85.81% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,489.37 | 1,558.65 | 1,545.39 | 1,525.83 | 1,500.19 | 1,468.76 | 1,431.89 | 1,390.01 | 1,343.58 | 1,293.14 | Raw: 39,504.17 29,021.85 |
Raw: 50,260.88 25,016.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,641.27 | 39,563.14 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,735.65 | 4,735.65 |
| Equity Value | 31,905.62 | 34,827.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 124.83 | 124.83 |
| Fair Value | $255.60 | $279.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.47% | 82.47% |
| Buy Price | $44.81 | $48.91 |
| Current Price | $218.53 | $218.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.50% | -77.62% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 14,611.58 | 35,922.51 | 88,315.36 | 217,122.96 | 533,795.94 | 1,312,335.23 | 3,226,371.04 | 7,932,020.60 | 19,500,841.66 | 47,942,743.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% | 145.85% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.46 | 3.59 | 8.83 | 21.71 | 53.38 | 131.23 | 322.64 | 793.20 | 1,950.08 | 4,794.27 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.36 | 2.90 | 6.53 | 14.72 | 33.18 | 74.77 | 168.50 | 379.71 | 855.67 | 1,928.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $140.12 | 6.60% | $-38.88 | -127.75% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $93.13 | 9.88% | $46.87 | -49.67% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $117.92 | 11.10% | $100.67 | -14.63% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $118.23 | 9.15% | $94.12 | -20.40% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $111.37 | 5.43% | $86.42 | -22.41% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $80.87 | 5.86% | $73.35 | -9.30% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $69.09 | 9.08% | $78.68 | 13.89% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $54.12 | 10.45% | $71.29 | 31.72% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $38.74 | 10.10% | $56.24 | 45.18% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $35.60 | 8.87% | $37.60 | 5.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $30.89 | 8.01% | $50.07 | 62.08% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $26.52 | 8.20% | $46.87 | 76.74% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $36.36 | 4.03% | $35.18 | -3.26% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $40.60 | 1.99% | $38.22 | -5.86% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $38.02 | 3.78% | $39.90 | 4.94% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $28.10 | 6.16% | $39.48 | 40.49% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $24.50 | 11.15% | $44.46 | 81.48% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $23.14 | 11.05% | $35.15 | 51.89% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $24.15 | 10.43% | $30.52 | 26.37% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $19.13 | 7.66% | $31.39 | 64.09% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $15.72 | 2.59% | $25.94 | 65.04% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $22.80 | -8.16% | $-23.03 | -201.01% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $23.64 | -11.48% | $13.78 | -41.72% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $20.43 | -5.15% | $18.54 | -9.27% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $14.26 | 4.12% | $13.36 | -6.31% |
| $135.77 - $158.74 | 27 |
| $158.74 - $181.72 | 102 |
| $181.72 - $204.69 | 224 |
| $204.69 - $227.67 | 221 |
| $227.67 - $250.64 | 204 |
| $250.64 - $273.62 | 97 |
| $273.62 - $296.59 | 60 |
| $296.59 - $319.57 | 34 |
| $319.57 - $342.54 | 16 |
| $342.54 - $365.52 | 3 |
| $365.52 - $388.49 | 8 |
| $388.49 - $411.47 | 2 |
| $411.47 - $434.44 | 0 |
| $434.44 - $457.41 | 1 |
| $457.41 - $480.39 | 0 |
| $480.39 - $503.36 | 0 |
| $503.36 - $526.34 | 0 |
| $526.34 - $549.31 | 0 |
| $549.31 - $572.29 | 0 |
| $572.29 - $595.26 | 1 |