Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $183.53 |
| 5Y Range | 92.18 – 136.09 |
| 5Y Selected | 114.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.21% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $65.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.06% |
| 10Y Range | 108.49 – 158.55 |
| 10Y Selected | 133.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.21% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $77.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.96% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9762 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7806 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9142 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8281 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9123 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7910 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6626 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8700 |
| Safety Score | 0.5779 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.45% | 12.40% | 11.35% | 10.30% | 9.25% | 8.20% | 7.15% | 6.10% | 5.05% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 937.71 | 1,053.96 | 1,173.56 | 1,294.42 | 1,414.13 | 1,530.08 | 1,639.46 | 1,739.46 | 1,827.30 | 1,900.39 |
| EBITDA | 217.51 | 244.47 | 272.21 | 300.25 | 328.02 | 354.91 | 380.28 | 403.48 | 423.85 | 440.81 |
| D&A | -47.36 | -53.24 | -59.28 | -65.38 | -71.43 | -77.28 | -82.81 | -87.86 | -92.30 | -95.99 |
| EBIT | 170.14 | 191.24 | 212.94 | 234.87 | 256.59 | 277.63 | 297.47 | 315.62 | 331.56 | 344.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -44.83 | -50.38 | -56.10 | -61.88 | -67.60 | -73.14 | -78.37 | -83.15 | -87.35 | -90.85 |
| NOPAT | 125.32 | 140.85 | 156.84 | 172.99 | 188.99 | 204.48 | 219.10 | 232.46 | 244.20 | 253.97 |
| Capital Expenditures | -20.04 | -22.52 | -25.07 | -27.66 | -30.22 | -32.69 | -35.03 | -37.17 | -39.04 | -40.60 |
| NWC Investment | -17.68 | -18.50 | -19.03 | -19.23 | -19.05 | -18.45 | -17.40 | -15.91 | -13.98 | -11.63 |
| (+) D&A | 47.36 | 53.24 | 59.28 | 65.38 | 71.43 | 77.28 | 82.81 | 87.86 | 92.30 | 95.99 |
| Free Cash Flow | 134.96 | 153.07 | 172.01 | 191.48 | 211.15 | 230.63 | 249.48 | 267.25 | 283.48 | 297.73 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 | 29,523,059.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 133.79 | 147.06 | 151.47 | 154.56 | 156.22 | 156.40 | 155.08 | 152.27 | 148.05 | 142.52 | Raw: 3,223.16 2,283.11 |
Raw: 4,544.66 2,082.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,026.23 | 3,580.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | -198.39 | -198.39 |
| Equity Value | 3,224.62 | 3,778.70 |
| (/) Shares Out | 29.52 | 29.52 |
| Fair Value | $109.22 | $127.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.21% | 42.21% |
| Buy Price | $63.12 | $73.97 |
| Current Price | $183.53 | $183.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.61% | -59.70% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 133.67 | 146.45 | 149.47 | 151.13 | 151.37 | 150.17 | 147.54 | 143.56 | 138.31 | 131.94 | Raw: 2,621.25 1,790.86 |
Raw: 3,695.96 1,560.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,522.94 | 3,004.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | -198.39 | -198.39 |
| Equity Value | 2,721.33 | 3,202.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 29.52 | 29.52 |
| Fair Value | $92.18 | $108.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.21% | 42.21% |
| Buy Price | $53.27 | $62.70 |
| Current Price | $183.53 | $183.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.98% | -65.84% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 133.91 | 147.69 | 153.52 | 158.10 | 161.28 | 162.96 | 163.07 | 161.60 | 158.58 | 154.07 | Raw: 4,171.81 3,064.83 |
Raw: 5,882.26 2,927.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,819.34 | 4,482.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | -198.39 | -198.39 |
| Equity Value | 4,017.74 | 4,680.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 29.52 | 29.52 |
| Fair Value | $136.09 | $158.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.21% | 42.21% |
| Buy Price | $78.65 | $91.63 |
| Current Price | $183.53 | $183.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.15% | -50.07% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,231.62 | 5,526.47 | 13,685.97 | 33,892.48 | 83,932.70 | 207,854.34 | 514,738.89 | 1,274,720.21 | 3,156,768.66 | 7,817,549.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% | 147.64% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.22 | 0.55 | 1.37 | 3.39 | 8.39 | 20.79 | 51.47 | 127.47 | 315.68 | 781.75 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.21 | 0.45 | 1.01 | 2.30 | 5.22 | 11.84 | 26.88 | 61.02 | 138.51 | 314.42 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $64.93 | 16.33% | $76.89 | 18.42% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $49.21 | 12.71% | $45.89 | -6.74% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $47.80 | 6.85% | $23.13 | -51.62% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $36.95 | 4.19% | $27.46 | -25.68% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $29.30 | 1.94% | $6.96 | -76.25% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $29.68 | 3.09% | $11.67 | -60.67% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $27.25 | 3.78% | $10.49 | -61.51% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $23.71 | 4.25% | $14.72 | -37.93% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $14.71 | 5.23% | $16.51 | 12.21% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $22.11 | 9.39% | $0.53 | -97.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $19.91 | 9.16% | $21.92 | 10.07% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $14.51 | 8.22% | $-9.37 | -164.60% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $22.48 | 3.37% | $7.27 | -67.66% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $13.85 | 0.88% | $2.49 | -82.03% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.81 | 2.50% | $4.87 | -50.32% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $7.49 | 2.50% | $-1.37 | -118.27% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $4.77 | 4.52% | $3.79 | -20.53% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $4.01 | 3.50% | $2.97 | -25.88% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.80 | 5.66% | $1.72 | -38.50% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $2.88 | 9.28% | $4.87 | 69.06% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $3.77 | 9.48% | $3.50 | -7.05% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $4.45 | 7.41% | $-2.81 | -163.15% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $5.09 | 5.71% | $-2.49 | -148.96% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $2.40 | 4.48% | $2.85 | 18.94% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $1.66 | 7.35% | $5.37 | 223.22% |
| $90.74 - $100.93 | 24 |
| $100.93 - $111.12 | 117 |
| $111.12 - $121.31 | 204 |
| $121.31 - $131.50 | 202 |
| $131.50 - $141.69 | 181 |
| $141.69 - $151.88 | 134 |
| $151.88 - $162.07 | 50 |
| $162.07 - $172.26 | 42 |
| $172.26 - $182.45 | 21 |
| $182.45 - $192.64 | 9 |
| $192.64 - $202.83 | 8 |
| $202.83 - $213.02 | 1 |
| $213.02 - $223.21 | 1 |
| $223.21 - $233.40 | 2 |
| $233.40 - $243.59 | 0 |
| $243.59 - $253.78 | 3 |
| $253.78 - $263.97 | 0 |
| $263.97 - $274.16 | 0 |
| $274.16 - $284.35 | 0 |
| $284.35 - $294.54 | 1 |