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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$156.94
5Y Range75.83 – 114.72
5Y Selected95.28
(-) Safety Margin27.23%
5Y Buy Price$69.33
Upside (to Buy Price)-55.82%
10Y Range85.60 – 126.75
10Y Selected106.18
(-) Safety Margin27.23%
10Y Buy Price$77.26
Upside (to Buy Price)-50.77%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5793
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8949
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5223
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8882
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5757
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8984
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5319
FCF R2 (10Y)0.9258
Safety Score0.7277

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.43%9.72%9.00%8.29%7.57%6.86%6.14%5.43%4.71%4.00%
Revenue6,421.467,045.507,679.838,316.388,946.259,559.8710,147.2610,698.2111,202.6011,650.71
EBITDA2,221.082,436.932,656.332,876.513,094.373,306.613,509.783,700.343,874.804,029.80
D&A-360.86-395.93-431.58-467.35-502.75-537.23-570.24-601.20-629.55-654.73
EBIT1,860.222,041.002,224.752,409.152,591.622,769.382,939.543,099.143,245.263,375.07
Pro forma Taxes-481.74-528.56-576.14-623.90-671.15-717.18-761.25-802.58-840.42-874.04
NOPAT1,378.481,512.441,648.611,785.261,920.472,052.202,178.292,296.562,404.842,501.03
Capital Expenditures-777.21-852.74-929.52-1,006.56-1,082.80-1,157.07-1,228.16-1,294.84-1,355.89-1,410.13
NWC Investment-12.40-12.76-12.97-13.01-12.87-12.54-12.01-11.26-10.31-9.16
(+) D&A360.86395.93431.58467.35502.75537.23570.24601.20629.55654.73
Free Cash Flow949.731,042.881,137.711,233.041,327.551,419.821,508.361,591.661,668.181,736.47
Diluted Shares Outstanding213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00213,257,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF941.501,001.931,001.89995.28982.21962.87937.62906.89871.22831.26
Raw: 20,449.99
14,485.67
Raw: 26,749.23
12,259.50

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,408.4721,692.17
(-) Net Debt24.6124.61
Equity Value19,383.8621,667.56
(/) Shares Out213.26213.26
Fair Value$90.89$101.60
(-) Safety Margin27.23%27.23%
Buy Price$66.14$73.94
Current Price$156.94$156.94
Upside (to Buy Price)-57.85%-52.89%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF940.64997.73988.63973.19951.68924.48892.05854.98813.90769.51
Raw: 16,605.00
11,344.69
Raw: 21,719.87
9,173.04

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value16,196.5618,279.83
(-) Net Debt24.6124.61
Equity Value16,171.9518,255.22
(/) Shares Out213.26213.26
Fair Value$75.83$85.60
(-) Safety Margin27.23%27.23%
Buy Price$55.18$62.29
Current Price$156.94$156.94
Upside (to Buy Price)-64.84%-60.31%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF942.361,006.181,015.451,018.091,014.011,003.24985.96962.47933.18898.61
Raw: 26,534.54
19,493.67
Raw: 34,708.01
17,275.21

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value24,489.7527,054.76
(-) Net Debt24.6124.61
Equity Value24,465.1427,030.15
(/) Shares Out213.26213.26
Fair Value$114.72$126.75
(-) Safety Margin27.23%27.23%
Buy Price$83.48$92.24
Current Price$156.94$156.94
Upside (to Buy Price)-46.81%-41.23%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$156.94
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH148.41%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue13,848.8434,402.3285,459.87212,293.49527,364.811,310,043.193,254,318.728,084,153.5720,082,095.3549,886,552.78
Constant Implied Growth148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%148.41%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.383.448.5521.2352.74131.00325.43808.422,008.214,988.66
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF1.292.786.3214.4032.7874.64169.96386.99881.182,006.41

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$63.2610.96%$51.79-18.14%
20182018-12-31$41.1613.97%$35.04-14.87%
20172017-12-31$43.8513.31%$16.64-62.05%
20162016-12-31$28.6010.59%$13.64-52.30%
20152015-12-31$19.699.17%$7.53-61.78%
20142014-12-31$25.8810.82%$1.75-93.23%
20132013-12-31$17.6710.00%$4.30-75.67%
20122012-12-31$11.439.21%$-4.78-141.86%
20112011-12-31$9.019.97%$1.69-81.29%
20102010-12-31$7.1111.66%$2.36-66.83%
20092009-12-31$4.5514.12%$-9.91-317.76%
20082008-12-31$4.2215.45%$0.81-80.69%
20072007-12-31$3.4210.06%$-3.70-208.19%
20062006-12-31$3.575.32%$-4.43-224.22%
20052005-12-31$3.991.74%$-2.38-159.65%
20042004-12-31$3.445.02%$-0.61-117.75%
20032003-12-31$2.2414.89%$-3.50-256.33%
20022002-12-31$1.2518.41%$-4.61-468.68%
20012001-12-31$0.5615.66%$-2.26-506.05%
20002000-12-31$0.4210.74%$-3.07-836.23%
19991999-12-31$0.475.99%$0.07-84.40%
19981998-12-31$0.505.30%$-0.45-190.16%
19971997-12-31$0.678.72%$-0.99-248.01%
19961996-12-31$0.4710.63%$-1.93-512.78%
19951995-12-31$0.3512.27%$-2.12-704.41%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$104.69
Median
$102.02
10th Percentile
$85.18
90th Percentile
$127.68

Fair Value Distribution

$68.20 - $73.71
5
$73.71 - $79.22
18
$79.22 - $84.73
66
$84.73 - $90.24
108
$90.24 - $95.76
139
$95.76 - $101.27
147
$101.27 - $106.78
136
$106.78 - $112.29
103
$112.29 - $117.80
80
$117.80 - $123.31
57
$123.31 - $128.82
51
$128.82 - $134.33
25
$134.33 - $139.84
28
$139.84 - $145.35
12
$145.35 - $150.87
6
$150.87 - $156.38
5
$156.38 - $161.89
4
$161.89 - $167.40
5
$167.40 - $172.91
3
$172.91 - $178.42
2