Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1,223.37 |
| 5Y Range | 686.85 – 1,075.22 |
| 5Y Selected | 881.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.24% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $658.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.16% |
| 10Y Range | 838.32 – 1,290.49 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,064.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.24% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $795.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -34.95% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8372 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9558 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5246 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8640 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7191 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9101 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7401 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9178 |
| Safety Score | 0.7476 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.38% | 15.90% | 14.41% | 12.92% | 11.43% | 9.95% | 8.46% | 6.97% | 5.49% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 14,269.22 | 16,537.40 | 18,920.22 | 21,365.04 | 23,808.08 | 26,176.47 | 28,391.22 | 30,371.20 | 32,037.65 | 33,319.16 |
| EBITDA | 6,470.86 | 7,499.44 | 8,580.01 | 9,688.69 | 10,796.57 | 11,870.60 | 12,874.95 | 13,772.84 | 14,528.55 | 15,109.69 |
| D&A | -549.71 | -637.09 | -728.89 | -823.07 | -917.19 | -1,008.43 | -1,093.75 | -1,170.02 | -1,234.22 | -1,283.59 |
| EBIT | 5,921.15 | 6,862.35 | 7,851.12 | 8,865.62 | 9,879.39 | 10,862.17 | 11,781.20 | 12,602.81 | 13,294.33 | 13,826.10 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -788.84 | -914.23 | -1,045.95 | -1,181.11 | -1,316.17 | -1,447.10 | -1,569.53 | -1,678.99 | -1,771.11 | -1,841.96 |
| NOPAT | 5,132.31 | 5,948.12 | 6,805.17 | 7,684.52 | 8,563.22 | 9,415.08 | 10,211.67 | 10,923.83 | 11,523.21 | 11,984.14 |
| Capital Expenditures | -394.07 | -456.71 | -522.52 | -590.03 | -657.50 | -722.91 | -784.08 | -838.76 | -884.78 | -920.17 |
| NWC Investment | -365.62 | -392.46 | -412.30 | -423.03 | -422.72 | -409.80 | -383.22 | -342.59 | -288.35 | -221.74 |
| (+) D&A | 549.71 | 637.09 | 728.89 | 823.07 | 917.19 | 1,008.43 | 1,093.75 | 1,170.02 | 1,234.22 | 1,283.59 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,922.33 | 5,736.04 | 6,599.24 | 7,494.53 | 8,400.19 | 9,290.79 | 10,138.13 | 10,912.50 | 11,584.31 | 12,125.82 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 | 133,208,250.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,879.65 | 5,280.64 | 5,568.67 | 5,791.71 | 5,950.24 | 6,032.28 | 6,033.50 | 5,952.77 | 5,792.27 | 5,557.41 | Raw: 130,033.30 88,184.39 |
Raw: 187,705.46 82,362.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 115,655.29 | 139,201.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,154.19 | 4,154.19 |
| Equity Value | 111,501.10 | 135,047.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 133.21 | 133.21 |
| Fair Value | $837.04 | $1,013.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.24% | 25.24% |
| Buy Price | $625.77 | $757.92 |
| Current Price | $1,223.37 | $1,223.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.85% | -38.05% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,875.20 | 5,235.06 | 5,470.46 | 5,637.38 | 5,739.08 | 5,765.36 | 5,714.16 | 5,586.49 | 5,386.49 | 5,121.15 | Raw: 105,495.42 68,690.61 |
Raw: 152,284.58 61,294.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 95,647.79 | 115,825.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,154.19 | 4,154.19 |
| Equity Value | 91,493.60 | 111,671.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 133.21 | 133.21 |
| Fair Value | $686.85 | $838.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.24% | 25.24% |
| Buy Price | $513.49 | $626.73 |
| Current Price | $1,223.37 | $1,223.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.03% | -48.77% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,884.15 | 5,327.03 | 5,669.56 | 5,951.74 | 6,171.22 | 6,314.18 | 6,373.89 | 6,346.78 | 6,232.78 | 6,035.39 | Raw: 168,948.57 119,378.95 |
Raw: 243,880.35 116,751.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 147,382.65 | 176,058.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,154.19 | 4,154.19 |
| Equity Value | 143,228.46 | 171,903.83 |
| (/) Shares Out | 133.21 | 133.21 |
| Fair Value | $1,075.22 | $1,290.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 25.24% | 25.24% |
| Buy Price | $803.84 | $964.77 |
| Current Price | $1,223.37 | $1,223.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -34.29% | -21.14% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 33,584.19 | 90,056.62 | 241,488.51 | 647,555.92 | 1,736,433.21 | 4,656,277.87 | 12,485,895.51 | 33,481,160.48 | 89,780,353.07 | 240,747,682.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% | 168.15% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.36 | 9.01 | 24.15 | 64.76 | 173.64 | 465.63 | 1,248.59 | 3,348.12 | 8,978.04 | 24,074.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.19 | 7.60 | 18.66 | 45.87 | 112.74 | 277.11 | 681.11 | 1,674.09 | 4,114.74 | 10,113.63 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $194.48 | 15.90% | $289.71 | 48.97% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $121.72 | 18.60% | $198.53 | 63.11% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $102.53 | 23.91% | $292.37 | 185.16% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $91.51 | 21.54% | $232.20 | 153.74% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $73.25 | 17.66% | $134.52 | 83.65% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $56.21 | 15.94% | $87.03 | 54.83% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $72.64 | 13.47% | $113.43 | 56.16% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $55.28 | 10.10% | $118.60 | 114.55% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $49.25 | 6.06% | $103.80 | 110.75% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $40.48 | 0.27% | $70.07 | 73.09% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $27.88 | -2.56% | $31.57 | 13.24% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $25.25 | 9.03% | $21.02 | -16.74% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $40.71 | 18.79% | $113.46 | 178.70% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $54.95 | 13.72% | $75.59 | 37.56% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $41.57 | 3.61% | $27.10 | -34.80% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $43.68 | -3.93% | $32.09 | -26.54% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $49.38 | -0.55% | $25.23 | -48.90% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $46.46 | 14.62% | $19.76 | -57.46% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $41.32 | 16.77% | $34.93 | -15.47% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $58.47 | 7.76% | $30.77 | -47.37% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $58.56 | -2.62% | $15.39 | -73.72% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $32.44 | -6.25% | $5.32 | -83.59% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $13.84 | 8.50% | $-0.01 | -100.04% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $24.38 | 13.65% | $25.14 | 3.12% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $11.50 | 18.78% | $16.10 | 39.96% |
| $681.48 - $785.53 | 38 |
| $785.53 - $889.58 | 164 |
| $889.58 - $993.63 | 257 |
| $993.63 - $1,097.68 | 210 |
| $1,097.68 - $1,201.73 | 129 |
| $1,201.73 - $1,305.78 | 93 |
| $1,305.78 - $1,409.83 | 53 |
| $1,409.83 - $1,513.88 | 27 |
| $1,513.88 - $1,617.93 | 15 |
| $1,617.93 - $1,721.98 | 7 |
| $1,721.98 - $1,826.03 | 4 |
| $1,826.03 - $1,930.08 | 1 |
| $1,930.08 - $2,034.13 | 1 |
| $2,034.13 - $2,138.18 | 0 |
| $2,138.18 - $2,242.23 | 0 |
| $2,242.23 - $2,346.28 | 0 |
| $2,346.28 - $2,450.33 | 0 |
| $2,450.33 - $2,554.38 | 0 |
| $2,554.38 - $2,658.43 | 0 |
| $2,658.43 - $2,762.48 | 1 |