Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.65 |
| 5Y Range | 10.66 – 23.74 |
| 5Y Selected | 17.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 35.84% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 333.30% |
| 10Y Range | 12.01 – 26.03 |
| 10Y Selected | 19.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 35.84% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $12.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 379.17% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9034 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9352 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7126 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8921 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.4885 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7679 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6104 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8238 |
| Safety Score | 0.6676 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.28% | 12.25% | 11.22% | 10.19% | 9.16% | 8.12% | 7.09% | 6.06% | 5.03% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,592.09 | 1,787.09 | 1,987.55 | 2,190.00 | 2,390.49 | 2,584.70 | 2,768.03 | 2,935.83 | 3,083.53 | 3,206.88 |
| EBITDA | 460.38 | 516.76 | 574.73 | 633.27 | 691.25 | 747.41 | 800.42 | 848.94 | 891.65 | 927.32 |
| D&A | -155.81 | -174.90 | -194.52 | -214.33 | -233.95 | -252.96 | -270.90 | -287.32 | -301.78 | -313.85 |
| EBIT | 304.56 | 341.87 | 380.21 | 418.94 | 457.30 | 494.45 | 529.52 | 561.62 | 589.87 | 613.47 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -79.22 | -88.92 | -98.90 | -108.97 | -118.95 | -128.61 | -137.73 | -146.08 | -153.43 | -159.57 |
| NOPAT | 225.34 | 252.94 | 281.31 | 309.97 | 338.35 | 365.84 | 391.78 | 415.53 | 436.44 | 453.90 |
| Capital Expenditures | -121.05 | -135.88 | -151.12 | -166.51 | -181.76 | -196.52 | -210.46 | -223.22 | -234.45 | -243.83 |
| NWC Investment | 11.74 | 12.27 | 12.61 | 12.74 | 12.62 | 12.22 | 11.54 | 10.56 | 9.29 | 7.76 |
| (+) D&A | 155.81 | 174.90 | 194.52 | 214.33 | 233.95 | 252.96 | 270.90 | 287.32 | 301.78 | 313.85 |
| Free Cash Flow | 271.85 | 304.23 | 337.33 | 370.53 | 403.16 | 434.49 | 463.76 | 490.20 | 513.06 | 531.68 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 | 691,749,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 270.06 | 295.32 | 306.51 | 314.94 | 320.77 | 323.59 | 323.31 | 319.89 | 313.40 | 304.01 | Raw: 11,093.90 8,539.81 |
Raw: 14,630.45 8,093.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,047.41 | 11,185.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | -38.00 | -38.00 |
| Equity Value | 10,085.40 | 11,223.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 691.75 | 691.75 |
| Fair Value | $14.58 | $16.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 35.84% | 35.84% |
| Buy Price | $9.35 | $10.41 |
| Current Price | $2.65 | $2.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 252.99% | 292.82% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 269.81 | 294.09 | 302.40 | 307.80 | 310.59 | 310.42 | 307.27 | 301.20 | 292.36 | 280.96 | Raw: 7,883.47 5,848.68 |
Raw: 10,396.59 5,290.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,333.37 | 8,267.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | -38.00 | -38.00 |
| Equity Value | 7,371.36 | 8,305.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 691.75 | 691.75 |
| Fair Value | $10.66 | $12.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 35.84% | 35.84% |
| Buy Price | $6.84 | $7.70 |
| Current Price | $2.65 | $2.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 158.00% | 190.70% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 270.31 | 296.57 | 310.72 | 322.31 | 331.38 | 337.45 | 340.34 | 339.92 | 336.18 | 329.18 | Raw: 18,592.19 14,854.87 |
Raw: 24,519.07 14,756.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,386.16 | 17,970.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | -38.00 | -38.00 |
| Equity Value | 16,424.16 | 18,008.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 691.75 | 691.75 |
| Fair Value | $23.74 | $26.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 35.84% | 35.84% |
| Buy Price | $15.23 | $16.70 |
| Current Price | $2.65 | $2.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 474.85% | 530.31% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,189.39 | 9,685.14 | 18,075.69 | 33,735.25 | 62,961.22 | 117,506.60 | 219,306.44 | 409,298.85 | 763,887.96 | 1,425,669.31 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% | 86.63% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.81 | 3.37 | 6.30 | 11.75 | 21.93 | 40.93 | 76.39 | 142.57 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.50 | 0.82 | 1.44 | 2.51 | 4.39 | 7.67 | 13.40 | 23.40 | 40.89 | 71.43 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $12.60 | 13.24% | $4.49 | -64.35% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $12.37 | 14.70% | $-0.58 | -104.70% |
| $8.83 - $15.22 | 434 |
| $15.22 - $21.61 | 383 |
| $21.61 - $28.01 | 118 |
| $28.01 - $34.40 | 36 |
| $34.40 - $40.79 | 15 |
| $40.79 - $47.19 | 6 |
| $47.19 - $53.58 | 2 |
| $53.58 - $59.97 | 1 |
| $59.97 - $66.36 | 1 |
| $66.36 - $72.76 | 2 |
| $72.76 - $79.15 | 1 |
| $79.15 - $85.54 | 0 |
| $85.54 - $91.94 | 0 |
| $91.94 - $98.33 | 0 |
| $98.33 - $104.72 | 0 |
| $104.72 - $111.11 | 0 |
| $111.11 - $117.51 | 0 |
| $117.51 - $123.90 | 0 |
| $123.90 - $130.29 | 0 |
| $130.29 - $136.69 | 1 |