Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $14.50 |
| 5Y Range | 42.13 – 90.62 |
| 5Y Selected | 66.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.21% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $29.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 103.05% |
| 10Y Range | 48.99 – 101.06 |
| 10Y Selected | 75.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.21% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $33.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 129.52% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9083 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9286 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5954 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5483 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6825 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6510 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7283 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7106 |
| Safety Score | 0.4436 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.55% | 11.60% | 10.65% | 9.70% | 8.75% | 7.80% | 6.85% | 5.90% | 4.95% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 73.15 | 81.64 | 90.34 | 99.10 | 107.78 | 116.18 | 124.14 | 131.47 | 137.98 | 143.50 |
| EBITDA | 72.72 | 81.16 | 89.80 | 98.52 | 107.14 | 115.50 | 123.41 | 130.69 | 137.16 | 142.65 |
| D&A | -16.97 | -18.94 | -20.95 | -22.99 | -25.00 | -26.95 | -28.79 | -30.49 | -32.00 | -33.28 |
| EBIT | 55.75 | 62.22 | 68.85 | 75.53 | 82.14 | 88.55 | 94.62 | 100.20 | 105.16 | 109.37 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1.84 | -2.05 | -2.27 | -2.49 | -2.71 | -2.92 | -3.12 | -3.30 | -3.46 | -3.60 |
| NOPAT | 53.92 | 60.17 | 66.58 | 73.04 | 79.44 | 85.63 | 91.50 | 96.90 | 101.70 | 105.76 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.51 | -0.57 | -0.63 | -0.70 | -0.76 | -0.82 | -0.87 | -0.92 | -0.97 | -1.01 |
| NWC Investment | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.15 | -0.14 | -0.13 | -0.11 |
| (+) D&A | 16.97 | 18.94 | 20.95 | 22.99 | 25.00 | 26.95 | 28.79 | 30.49 | 32.00 | 33.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | 70.21 | 78.37 | 86.73 | 95.16 | 103.51 | 111.60 | 119.27 | 126.33 | 132.60 | 137.93 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 | 32,281,856.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 69.71 | 75.80 | 78.03 | 79.63 | 80.56 | 80.79 | 80.31 | 79.12 | 77.25 | 74.74 | Raw: 2,407.84 1,807.45 |
Raw: 3,208.58 1,676.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,191.18 | 2,452.72 |
| (-) Net Debt | 313.51 | 313.51 |
| Equity Value | 1,877.67 | 2,139.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 32.28 | 32.28 |
| Fair Value | $58.16 | $66.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.21% | 57.21% |
| Buy Price | $24.89 | $28.36 |
| Current Price | $14.50 | $14.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 71.65% | 95.56% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 69.64 | 75.48 | 76.98 | 77.84 | 78.02 | 77.53 | 76.35 | 74.53 | 72.09 | 69.11 | Raw: 1,790.18 1,295.42 |
Raw: 2,385.51 1,147.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,673.39 | 1,894.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 313.51 | 313.51 |
| Equity Value | 1,359.88 | 1,581.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 32.28 | 32.28 |
| Fair Value | $42.13 | $48.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.21% | 57.21% |
| Buy Price | $18.03 | $20.96 |
| Current Price | $14.50 | $14.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 24.31% | 44.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 69.77 | 76.13 | 79.10 | 81.48 | 83.21 | 84.23 | 84.52 | 84.04 | 82.83 | 80.89 | Raw: 3,657.67 2,849.13 |
Raw: 4,874.04 2,769.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,238.83 | 3,575.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 313.51 | 313.51 |
| Equity Value | 2,925.32 | 3,262.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 32.28 | 32.28 |
| Fair Value | $90.62 | $101.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 57.21% | 57.21% |
| Buy Price | $38.78 | $43.24 |
| Current Price | $14.50 | $14.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 167.42% | 198.22% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 295.20 | 707.58 | 1,696.06 | 4,065.40 | 9,744.65 | 23,357.67 | 55,987.69 | 134,200.97 | 321,676.06 | 771,048.73 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% | 139.70% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.41 | 0.97 | 2.34 | 5.60 | 13.42 | 32.17 | 77.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 0.66 | 1.46 | 3.26 | 7.27 | 16.21 | 36.15 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.75 | 14.68% | $8.26 | -15.30% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.75 | 11.04% | $1.48 | -84.82% |
| $36.72 - $47.40 | 66 |
| $47.40 - $58.09 | 226 |
| $58.09 - $68.78 | 248 |
| $68.78 - $79.47 | 168 |
| $79.47 - $90.16 | 132 |
| $90.16 - $100.85 | 56 |
| $100.85 - $111.53 | 47 |
| $111.53 - $122.22 | 12 |
| $122.22 - $132.91 | 15 |
| $132.91 - $143.60 | 10 |
| $143.60 - $154.29 | 7 |
| $154.29 - $164.98 | 3 |
| $164.98 - $175.67 | 2 |
| $175.67 - $186.35 | 4 |
| $186.35 - $197.04 | 0 |
| $197.04 - $207.73 | 1 |
| $207.73 - $218.42 | 0 |
| $218.42 - $229.11 | 0 |
| $229.11 - $239.80 | 0 |
| $239.80 - $250.48 | 2 |