Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.76 |
| 5Y Range | 3.32 – 19.79 |
| 5Y Selected | 11.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.37% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.56% |
| 10Y Range | 3.65 – 19.09 |
| 10Y Selected | 11.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.37% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.89% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2148 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0034 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3040 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0075 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0423 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0095 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8154 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6776 |
| Safety Score | 0.1726 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -3.19% | -2.39% | -1.59% | -0.79% | 0.00% | 0.80% | 1.60% | 2.40% | 3.20% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 13.39 | 13.07 | 12.86 | 12.76 | 12.76 | 12.86 | 13.07 | 13.38 | 13.81 | 14.36 |
| EBITDA | 8.97 | 8.75 | 8.61 | 8.54 | 8.54 | 8.61 | 8.75 | 8.96 | 9.25 | 9.62 |
| D&A | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| EBIT | 8.94 | 8.73 | 8.59 | 8.52 | 8.52 | 8.59 | 8.73 | 8.94 | 9.22 | 9.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.69 | -0.67 | -0.66 | -0.66 | -0.66 | -0.66 | -0.67 | -0.69 | -0.71 | -0.74 |
| NOPAT | 8.25 | 8.05 | 7.93 | 7.86 | 7.86 | 7.93 | 8.05 | 8.25 | 8.51 | 8.85 |
| Capital Expenditures | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| NWC Investment | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| (+) D&A | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8.19 | 7.99 | 7.87 | 7.81 | 7.82 | 7.88 | 8.01 | 8.21 | 8.48 | 8.82 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 | 7,798,886.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8.13 | 7.76 | 7.15 | 6.64 | 6.22 | 5.88 | 5.59 | 5.36 | 5.19 | 5.05 | Raw: 186.04 143.32 |
Raw: 209.92 116.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 179.23 | 179.32 |
| (-) Net Debt | 111.45 | 111.45 |
| Equity Value | 67.78 | 67.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| Fair Value | $8.69 | $8.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.37% | 85.37% |
| Buy Price | $1.27 | $1.27 |
| Current Price | $9.76 | $9.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.97% | -86.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8.12 | 7.72 | 7.05 | 6.49 | 6.03 | 5.64 | 5.32 | 5.05 | 4.84 | 4.67 | Raw: 137.31 101.95 |
Raw: 154.94 78.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 137.37 | 139.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | 111.45 | 111.45 |
| Equity Value | 25.92 | 28.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| Fair Value | $3.32 | $3.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.37% | 85.37% |
| Buy Price | $0.49 | $0.53 |
| Current Price | $9.76 | $9.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.02% | -94.53% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8.14 | 7.79 | 7.25 | 6.80 | 6.43 | 6.13 | 5.89 | 5.70 | 5.56 | 5.47 | Raw: 286.84 229.36 |
Raw: 323.67 195.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 265.77 | 260.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 111.45 | 111.45 |
| Equity Value | 154.32 | 148.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| Fair Value | $19.79 | $19.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.37% | 85.37% |
| Buy Price | $2.89 | $2.79 |
| Current Price | $9.76 | $9.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.34% | -71.39% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 76.00 | 176.71 | 410.89 | 955.40 | 2,221.50 | 5,165.41 | 12,010.60 | 27,926.98 | 64,935.69 | 150,988.15 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% | 132.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.52 | 1.20 | 2.79 | 6.49 | 15.10 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 3.48 | 7.58 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $16.25 | -0.17% | $2.13 | -86.89% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $13.80 | -4.24% | $-8.16 | -159.10% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $24.40 | -13.06% | $-26.43 | -208.30% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $26.90 | -16.25% | $-16.45 | -161.14% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $26.92 | -12.43% | $-23.55 | -187.50% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $26.00 | -5.71% | $-25.35 | -197.50% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $24.95 | 2.45% | $11.50 | -53.91% |
| $-0.20 - $5.01 | 222 |
| $5.01 - $10.21 | 436 |
| $10.21 - $15.42 | 190 |
| $15.42 - $20.62 | 83 |
| $20.62 - $25.83 | 34 |
| $25.83 - $31.04 | 16 |
| $31.04 - $36.24 | 10 |
| $36.24 - $41.45 | 3 |
| $41.45 - $46.65 | 2 |
| $46.65 - $51.86 | 1 |
| $51.86 - $57.06 | 0 |
| $57.06 - $62.27 | 1 |
| $62.27 - $67.48 | 0 |
| $67.48 - $72.68 | 1 |
| $72.68 - $77.89 | 0 |
| $77.89 - $83.09 | 0 |
| $83.09 - $88.30 | 0 |
| $88.30 - $93.50 | 0 |
| $93.50 - $98.71 | 0 |
| $98.71 - $103.92 | 1 |