Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.05 |
| 5Y Range | 376.58 – 551.78 |
| 5Y Selected | 464.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.45% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $67.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 738.98% |
| 10Y Range | 423.92 – 608.09 |
| 10Y Selected | 516.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.45% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $75.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 832.66% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0094 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0080 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0003 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0179 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0002 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0029 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6871 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6871 |
| Safety Score | 0.1455 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.88% | 10.11% | 9.35% | 8.59% | 7.82% | 7.06% | 6.29% | 5.53% | 4.76% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 21.68 | 23.87 | 26.10 | 28.35 | 30.56 | 32.72 | 34.78 | 36.70 | 38.45 | 39.99 |
| EBITDA | 297.72 | 327.83 | 358.49 | 389.27 | 419.71 | 449.34 | 477.61 | 504.02 | 528.03 | 549.15 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 297.72 | 327.83 | 358.49 | 389.27 | 419.71 | 449.34 | 477.61 | 504.02 | 528.03 | 549.15 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 297.72 | 327.83 | 358.49 | 389.27 | 419.71 | 449.34 | 477.61 | 504.02 | 528.03 | 549.15 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 19.98 | 20.60 | 20.97 | 21.05 | 20.82 | 20.26 | 19.34 | 18.06 | 16.42 | 14.45 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 317.70 | 348.43 | 379.45 | 410.32 | 440.54 | 469.60 | 496.95 | 522.08 | 544.46 | 563.60 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 | 13,928,819.75 |
| Metric | Oct-25 | Oct-26 | Oct-27 | Oct-28 | Oct-29 | Oct-30 | Oct-31 | Oct-32 | Oct-33 | Oct-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 4/30/25 | 11/1/25 | 11/1/26 | 11/1/27 | 11/1/28 | 11/1/29 | 11/1/30 | 11/1/31 | 11/1/32 | 11/1/33 |
| Period End | 10/31/25 | 10/31/26 | 10/31/27 | 10/31/28 | 10/31/29 | 10/31/30 | 10/31/31 | 10/31/32 | 10/31/33 | 10/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/31/25 | 5/2/26 | 5/2/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/2/29 | 5/2/30 | 5/2/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/2/33 | 5/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.29 | 1.29 | 2.29 | 3.29 | 4.29 | 5.29 | 6.29 | 7.30 | 8.30 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 314.94 | 339.74 | 339.14 | 336.14 | 330.80 | 323.21 | 313.52 | 301.90 | 288.34 | 273.58 | Raw: 6,334.48 4,553.92 |
Raw: 8,103.95 3,766.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,214.68 | 6,927.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| Equity Value | 6,207.58 | 6,920.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.93 | 13.93 |
| Fair Value | $445.66 | $496.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.45% | 85.45% |
| Buy Price | $64.84 | $72.29 |
| Current Price | $8.05 | $8.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 705.52% | 798.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 314.66 | 338.84 | 335.17 | 329.19 | 321.02 | 310.81 | 298.75 | 285.07 | 269.76 | 253.63 | Raw: 5,203.23 3,613.51 |
Raw: 6,656.70 2,854.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,252.38 | 5,911.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| Equity Value | 5,245.28 | 5,904.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.93 | 13.93 |
| Fair Value | $376.58 | $423.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.45% | 85.45% |
| Buy Price | $54.79 | $61.68 |
| Current Price | $8.05 | $8.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 580.65% | 666.22% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 315.23 | 340.65 | 343.19 | 343.30 | 340.98 | 336.24 | 329.17 | 319.91 | 308.39 | 295.31 | Raw: 8,072.41 6,009.45 |
Raw: 10,327.36 5,204.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,692.80 | 8,477.04 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| Equity Value | 7,685.70 | 8,469.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 13.93 | 13.93 |
| Fair Value | $551.78 | $608.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.45% | 85.45% |
| Buy Price | $80.28 | $88.48 |
| Current Price | $8.05 | $8.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 897.32% | 999.09% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 48.57 | 120.66 | 299.72 | 744.55 | 1,849.56 | 4,594.55 | 11,413.48 | 28,352.57 | 70,431.48 | 174,961.02 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% | 148.41% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 0.46 | 1.14 | 2.84 | 7.04 | 17.50 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 1.38 | 3.13 | 7.14 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012-10-31 | $5.01 | 44.69% | $0.07 | -98.66% |
| $336.03 - $377.69 | 14 |
| $377.69 - $419.35 | 87 |
| $419.35 - $461.00 | 192 |
| $461.00 - $502.66 | 228 |
| $502.66 - $544.31 | 205 |
| $544.31 - $585.97 | 109 |
| $585.97 - $627.63 | 77 |
| $627.63 - $669.28 | 41 |
| $669.28 - $710.94 | 26 |
| $710.94 - $752.59 | 8 |
| $752.59 - $794.25 | 4 |
| $794.25 - $835.91 | 2 |
| $835.91 - $877.56 | 0 |
| $877.56 - $919.22 | 5 |
| $919.22 - $960.87 | 1 |
| $960.87 - $1,002.53 | 0 |
| $1,002.53 - $1,044.19 | 0 |
| $1,044.19 - $1,085.84 | 0 |
| $1,085.84 - $1,127.50 | 0 |
| $1,127.50 - $1,169.15 | 1 |