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Invesco High Income 2024 Target Term Fund

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$7.54
5Y Range-0.70 – -0.67
5Y Selected-0.69
(-) Safety Margin84.88%
5Y Buy Price$-0.10
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.38%
10Y Range-0.73 – -0.72
10Y Selected-0.72
(-) Safety Margin84.88%
10Y Buy Price$-0.11
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.45%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3202
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.1832
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3260
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1910
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3472
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1963
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1658
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3663
Safety Score0.1512

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-63.75%-56.22%-48.69%-41.17%-33.64%-26.11%-18.58%-11.06%-3.53%4.00%
Revenue0.080.030.020.010.010.000.000.000.000.00
EBITDA0.400.180.090.050.040.030.020.020.020.02
D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
EBIT0.400.180.090.050.040.030.020.020.020.02
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT0.400.180.090.050.040.030.020.020.020.02
Capital Expenditures0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NWC Investment0.340.110.040.020.010.000.000.000.000.00
(+) D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Free Cash Flow0.740.280.130.070.040.030.020.020.020.02
Diluted Shares Outstanding8,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.008,786,390.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-25Mar-26Mar-27Feb-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Feb-32Mar-33Mar-34
Period Start8/31/243/2/253/2/263/2/273/1/283/2/293/2/303/2/313/1/323/2/33
Period End3/1/253/1/263/1/272/29/283/1/293/1/303/1/312/29/323/1/333/1/34
Mid-Point11/30/248/31/258/31/268/31/278/30/288/31/298/31/308/31/318/30/328/31/33
Time (t)0.100.100.621.622.623.624.625.626.637.63
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.950.870.800.730.670.610.560.51
PV UFCF0.730.280.120.060.030.020.020.010.010.01
Raw: 0.64
0.49
Raw: 0.27
0.13

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1.721.44
(-) Net Debt7.807.80
Equity Value-6.07-6.36
(/) Shares Out8.798.79
Fair Value$-0.69$-0.72
(-) Safety Margin84.88%84.88%
Buy Price$-0.10$-0.11
Current Price$7.54$7.54
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.39%-101.45%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.940.860.780.710.640.580.530.48
PV UFCF0.730.280.120.060.030.020.020.010.010.01
Raw: 0.52
0.39
Raw: 0.22
0.10

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1.621.40
(-) Net Debt7.807.80
Equity Value-6.18-6.40
(/) Shares Out8.798.79
Fair Value$-0.70$-0.73
(-) Safety Margin84.88%84.88%
Buy Price$-0.11$-0.11
Current Price$7.54$7.54
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.41%-101.46%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.950.880.820.750.700.650.600.55
PV UFCF0.730.280.130.060.040.020.020.010.010.01
Raw: 0.81
0.64
Raw: 0.35
0.18

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1.881.50
(-) Net Debt7.807.80
Equity Value-5.92-6.30
(/) Shares Out8.798.79
Fair Value$-0.67$-0.72
(-) Safety Margin84.88%84.88%
Buy Price$-0.10$-0.11
Current Price$7.54$7.54
Upside (to Buy Price)-101.35%-101.44%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$7.54
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH271.97%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue0.772.8710.6939.75147.86550.022,045.917,610.2228,307.93105,297.75
Constant Implied Growth271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%271.97%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.000.000.000.000.010.060.200.762.8310.53
Discount Factor0.990.870.800.730.670.610.560.510.470.43
Present Value of Implied FCF0.000.000.000.000.010.030.110.391.344.55

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
Error: Rolling DCF Data Not Available
Debug Info: Read Error

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-0.72
Median
$-0.72
10th Percentile
$-0.73
90th Percentile
$-0.72

Fair Value Distribution

$-0.73 - $-0.73
9
$-0.73 - $-0.73
32
$-0.73 - $-0.73
69
$-0.73 - $-0.73
112
$-0.73 - $-0.72
144
$-0.72 - $-0.72
158
$-0.72 - $-0.72
132
$-0.72 - $-0.72
109
$-0.72 - $-0.72
68
$-0.72 - $-0.72
58
$-0.72 - $-0.72
34
$-0.72 - $-0.71
23
$-0.71 - $-0.71
21
$-0.71 - $-0.71
13
$-0.71 - $-0.71
5
$-0.71 - $-0.71
6
$-0.71 - $-0.71
3
$-0.71 - $-0.70
1
$-0.70 - $-0.70
2
$-0.70 - $-0.70
1