Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.00 |
| 5Y Range | 0.89 – 2.09 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.07% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.70% |
| 10Y Range | 0.91 – 2.05 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.07% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.95% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9985 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8901 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0330 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0515 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3389 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4603 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4208 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0383 |
| Safety Score | 0.2096 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.98% | 3.09% | 3.20% | 3.32% | 3.43% | 3.55% | 3.66% | 3.77% | 3.89% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,610.69 | 1,660.47 | 1,713.67 | 1,770.52 | 1,831.28 | 1,896.20 | 1,965.58 | 2,039.73 | 2,119.00 | 2,203.76 |
| EBITDA | 196.47 | 202.54 | 209.03 | 215.96 | 223.37 | 231.29 | 239.75 | 248.80 | 258.47 | 268.81 |
| D&A | -66.85 | -68.91 | -71.12 | -73.48 | -76.00 | -78.69 | -81.57 | -84.65 | -87.94 | -91.46 |
| EBIT | 129.62 | 133.63 | 137.91 | 142.48 | 147.37 | 152.60 | 158.18 | 164.15 | 170.53 | 177.35 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -16.42 | -16.93 | -17.47 | -18.05 | -18.67 | -19.34 | -20.04 | -20.80 | -21.61 | -22.47 |
| NOPAT | 113.20 | 116.70 | 120.43 | 124.43 | 128.70 | 133.26 | 138.14 | 143.35 | 148.92 | 154.88 |
| Capital Expenditures | -147.07 | -151.61 | -156.47 | -161.66 | -167.21 | -173.14 | -179.47 | -186.24 | -193.48 | -201.22 |
| NWC Investment | -5.31 | -5.68 | -6.07 | -6.49 | -6.93 | -7.41 | -7.92 | -8.46 | -9.04 | -9.67 |
| (+) D&A | 66.85 | 68.91 | 71.12 | 73.48 | 76.00 | 78.69 | 81.57 | 84.65 | 87.94 | 91.46 |
| Free Cash Flow | 27.66 | 28.32 | 29.01 | 29.76 | 30.56 | 31.41 | 32.32 | 33.30 | 34.34 | 35.45 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 | 656,806,278.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 27.49 | 27.50 | 26.43 | 25.43 | 24.50 | 23.63 | 22.81 | 22.04 | 21.32 | 20.65 | Raw: 889.72 690.88 |
Raw: 1,032.00 582.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 822.22 | 824.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8.64 | 8.64 |
| Equity Value | 813.58 | 815.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 656.81 | 656.81 |
| Fair Value | $1.24 | $1.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.07% | 82.07% |
| Buy Price | $0.22 | $0.22 |
| Current Price | $1.00 | $1.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.79% | -77.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 27.46 | 27.38 | 26.07 | 24.86 | 23.72 | 22.66 | 21.67 | 20.75 | 19.89 | 19.08 | Raw: 621.88 465.36 |
Raw: 721.32 374.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 594.85 | 607.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8.64 | 8.64 |
| Equity Value | 586.21 | 599.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 656.81 | 656.81 |
| Fair Value | $0.89 | $0.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.07% | 82.07% |
| Buy Price | $0.16 | $0.16 |
| Current Price | $1.00 | $1.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.00% | -83.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 27.51 | 27.61 | 26.80 | 26.03 | 25.31 | 24.64 | 24.01 | 23.42 | 22.87 | 22.36 | Raw: 1,551.52 1,250.59 |
Raw: 1,799.63 1,104.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,383.85 | 1,355.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8.64 | 8.64 |
| Equity Value | 1,375.22 | 1,346.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 656.81 | 656.81 |
| Fair Value | $2.09 | $2.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.07% | 82.07% |
| Buy Price | $0.38 | $0.37 |
| Current Price | $1.00 | $1.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.46% | -63.23% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,938.00 | 5,182.03 | 9,140.03 | 16,121.13 | 28,434.35 | 50,152.33 | 88,458.38 | 156,022.35 | 275,191.27 | 485,380.70 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% | 76.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.29 | 0.52 | 0.91 | 1.61 | 2.84 | 5.02 | 8.85 | 15.60 | 27.52 | 48.54 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.73 | 1.21 | 2.01 | 3.32 | 5.49 | 9.09 | 15.04 | 24.88 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.89 | 5.39% | $1.75 | -7.31% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.94 | 11.15% | $-0.30 | -110.19% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.32 | 5.96% | $-3.14 | -194.48% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $3.56 | 4.14% | $-3.32 | -193.19% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.90 | -0.69% | $3.10 | -20.42% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.90 | -5.58% | $-1.21 | -130.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.90 | -13.31% | $-3.33 | -185.32% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.90 | -21.03% | $0.75 | -80.65% |
| $0.63 - $1.04 | 247 |
| $1.04 - $1.44 | 435 |
| $1.44 - $1.84 | 180 |
| $1.84 - $2.25 | 67 |
| $2.25 - $2.65 | 34 |
| $2.65 - $3.05 | 9 |
| $3.05 - $3.46 | 12 |
| $3.46 - $3.86 | 4 |
| $3.86 - $4.26 | 3 |
| $4.26 - $4.67 | 3 |
| $4.67 - $5.07 | 2 |
| $5.07 - $5.47 | 1 |
| $5.47 - $5.88 | 1 |
| $5.88 - $6.28 | 0 |
| $6.28 - $6.68 | 0 |
| $6.68 - $7.09 | 1 |
| $7.09 - $7.49 | 0 |
| $7.49 - $7.89 | 0 |
| $7.89 - $8.30 | 0 |
| $8.30 - $8.70 | 1 |