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PJSC ALROSA-Nyurba

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$65,400.00
5Y Range595,375.06 – 1,266,313.37
5Y Selected930,844.21
(-) Safety Margin51.99%
5Y Buy Price$474,916.72
Upside (to Buy Price)626.17%
10Y Range638,894.99 – 1,297,232.18
10Y Selected968,063.58
(-) Safety Margin51.99%
10Y Buy Price$493,906.04
Upside (to Buy Price)655.21%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.1387
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6504
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1017
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8102
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0149
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7450
FCF R2 (5Y)0.6582
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7962
Safety Score0.5102

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2021202220232024202520262027202820292030
% Growth0.67%1.04%1.41%1.78%2.15%2.52%2.89%3.26%3.63%4.00%
Revenue35,784.3136,157.2536,667.7637,321.0438,123.9539,085.0940,214.9741,526.2043,033.7144,755.06
EBITDA22,220.3522,451.9322,768.9323,174.5923,673.1624,269.9824,971.5825,785.7926,721.8827,790.76
D&A-5.81-5.87-5.96-6.06-6.19-6.35-6.53-6.75-6.99-7.27
EBIT22,214.5422,446.0622,762.9723,168.5323,666.9624,263.6324,965.0525,779.0426,714.8927,783.49
Pro forma Taxes-4,493.17-4,540.00-4,604.10-4,686.13-4,786.95-4,907.63-5,049.50-5,214.14-5,403.43-5,619.57
NOPAT17,721.3717,906.0518,158.8718,482.4018,880.0219,356.0019,915.5520,564.9021,311.4722,163.92
Capital Expenditures0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NWC Investment-24.45-38.15-52.23-66.84-82.14-98.33-115.59-134.15-154.23-176.11
(+) D&A5.815.875.966.066.196.356.536.756.997.27
Free Cash Flow17,702.7217,873.7718,112.6018,421.6218,804.0719,264.0219,806.4920,437.5021,164.2321,995.09
Diluted Shares Outstanding746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75746,760.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-21Dec-22Dec-23Dec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30
Period Start6/30/211/1/221/1/231/1/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/30
Period End12/31/2112/31/2212/31/2312/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/30
Mid-Point9/30/217/2/227/2/237/1/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/30
Time (t)0.100.100.100.100.100.461.462.463.464.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.61%Terminal Growth: 2.91%
Metric2021202220232024202520262027202820292030TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.990.990.970.910.850.800.75
PV UFCF17,589.8317,759.7917,997.0918,304.1418,684.1518,705.3418,040.1717,461.2616,961.5116,534.93
Raw: 522,926.97
503,233.74
Raw: 611,666.82
445,347.39

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value593,568.73623,385.60
(-) Net Debt0.000.00
Equity Value593,568.73623,385.60
(/) Shares Out0.750.75
Fair Value$794,857.97$834,786.24
(-) Safety Margin51.99%51.99%
Buy Price$381,611.31$400,780.87
Current Price$65,400.00$65,400.00
Upside (to Buy Price)483.50%512.81%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.61%Terminal Growth: 2.41%
Metric2021202220232024202520262027202820292030TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.990.990.970.900.830.780.72
PV UFCF17,573.4117,743.2117,980.2918,287.0618,666.7118,625.1817,795.9317,064.7816,422.3415,860.54
Raw: 370,287.54
354,352.03
Raw: 433,124.73
301,082.25

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value444,602.72477,101.70
(-) Net Debt0.000.00
Equity Value444,602.72477,101.70
(/) Shares Out0.750.75
Fair Value$595,375.06$638,894.99
(-) Safety Margin51.99%51.99%
Buy Price$285,839.56$306,733.48
Current Price$65,400.00$65,400.00
Upside (to Buy Price)337.06%369.01%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.61%Terminal Growth: 3.41%
Metric2021202220232024202520262027202820292030TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.990.990.980.920.870.830.78
PV UFCF17,606.4117,776.5318,014.0618,321.4018,701.7618,786.6118,290.1217,870.8117,523.7317,244.77
Raw: 883,669.27
855,212.95
Raw: 1,033,626.49
788,585.88

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value945,633.12968,722.07
(-) Net Debt0.000.00
Equity Value945,633.12968,722.08
(/) Shares Out0.750.75
Fair Value$1,266,313.37$1,297,232.18
(-) Safety Margin51.99%51.99%
Buy Price$607,957.05$622,801.17
Current Price$65,400.00$65,400.00
Upside (to Buy Price)829.60%852.30%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$65,400.00
WACC Used6.6%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH105.86%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue54,734.16112,675.40231,952.87477,496.72982,971.762,023,539.534,165,645.838,575,372.4717,653,208.1836,340,784.02
Constant Implied Growth105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%105.86%
Implied Free Cash Flow5.4711.2723.2047.7598.30202.35416.56857.541,765.323,634.08
Discount Factor0.990.850.800.750.710.660.620.580.550.51
Present Value of Implied FCF5.449.6318.5935.9069.32133.85258.47499.10963.771,861.05

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20152015-12-31$100,500.00-3.60%$174,494.3573.63%
20142014-12-31$89,900.006.33%$209,794.63133.36%
20132013-12-31$64,000.008.15%$226,060.25253.22%
20122012-12-31$56,000.0013.18%$246,077.34339.42%
20112011-12-31$32,550.0016.94%$157,080.28382.58%
20102010-12-31$32,550.0012.05%$28.94-99.91%
20092009-12-31$32,550.0056.06%$8.38-99.97%
20082008-12-31$32,550.0092.20%$18.61-99.94%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$1,030,012.81
Median
$827,866.13
10th Percentile
$637,127.74
90th Percentile
$1,224,590.78

Fair Value Distribution

$445,338.75 - $6,363,960.38
999
$6,363,960.38 - $12,282,582.01
0
$12,282,582.01 - $18,201,203.64
0
$18,201,203.64 - $24,119,825.28
0
$24,119,825.28 - $30,038,446.91
0
$30,038,446.91 - $35,957,068.54
0
$35,957,068.54 - $41,875,690.17
0
$41,875,690.17 - $47,794,311.81
0
$47,794,311.81 - $53,712,933.44
0
$53,712,933.44 - $59,631,555.07
0
$59,631,555.07 - $65,550,176.70
0
$65,550,176.70 - $71,468,798.34
0
$71,468,798.34 - $77,387,419.97
0
$77,387,419.97 - $83,306,041.60
0
$83,306,041.60 - $89,224,663.23
0
$89,224,663.23 - $95,143,284.87
0
$95,143,284.87 - $101,061,906.50
0
$101,061,906.50 - $106,980,528.13
0
$106,980,528.13 - $112,899,149.76
0
$112,899,149.76 - $118,817,771.40
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