Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $13.56 |
| 5Y Range | -0.94 – 2.48 |
| 5Y Selected | 0.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.20% |
| 10Y Range | -2.40 – -0.33 |
| 10Y Selected | -1.36 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-0.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -101.42% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0030 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0128 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0245 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0002 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0008 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0414 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3485 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1089 |
| Safety Score | 0.1410 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -16.60% | -14.31% | -12.02% | -9.73% | -7.44% | -5.15% | -2.87% | -0.58% | 1.71% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 11.79 | 10.10 | 8.89 | 8.02 | 7.42 | 7.04 | 6.84 | 6.80 | 6.92 | 7.19 |
| EBITDA | 9.65 | 8.27 | 7.28 | 6.57 | 6.08 | 5.77 | 5.60 | 5.57 | 5.67 | 5.89 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 9.65 | 8.27 | 7.28 | 6.57 | 6.08 | 5.77 | 5.60 | 5.57 | 5.67 | 5.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2.63 | -2.25 | -1.98 | -1.79 | -1.65 | -1.57 | -1.52 | -1.52 | -1.54 | -1.60 |
| NOPAT | 7.03 | 6.02 | 5.30 | 4.78 | 4.43 | 4.20 | 4.08 | 4.06 | 4.12 | 4.29 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 3.70 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 1.37 | 0.94 | 0.60 | 0.32 | 0.06 | -0.18 | -0.44 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 10.73 | 8.69 | 7.22 | 6.15 | 5.37 | 4.80 | 4.40 | 4.12 | 3.94 | 3.85 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 | 8,744,547.00 |
| Metric | Oct-25 | Oct-26 | Oct-27 | Oct-28 | Oct-29 | Oct-30 | Oct-31 | Oct-32 | Oct-33 | Oct-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 4/30/25 | 11/1/25 | 11/1/26 | 11/1/27 | 11/1/28 | 11/1/29 | 11/1/30 | 11/1/31 | 11/1/32 | 11/1/33 |
| Period End | 10/31/25 | 10/31/26 | 10/31/27 | 10/31/28 | 10/31/29 | 10/31/30 | 10/31/31 | 10/31/32 | 10/31/33 | 10/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/31/25 | 5/2/26 | 5/2/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/2/29 | 5/2/30 | 5/2/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/2/33 | 5/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.29 | 1.29 | 2.29 | 3.29 | 4.29 | 5.29 | 6.29 | 7.30 | 8.30 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10.64 | 8.47 | 6.45 | 5.04 | 4.03 | 3.31 | 2.77 | 2.38 | 2.09 | 1.87 | Raw: 77.24 55.53 |
Raw: 55.42 25.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 90.16 | 72.80 |
| (-) Net Debt | 86.54 | 86.54 |
| Equity Value | 3.61 | -13.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8.74 | 8.74 |
| Fair Value | $0.41 | $-1.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $0.06 | $-0.22 |
| Current Price | $13.56 | $13.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.57% | -101.63% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10.63 | 8.45 | 6.37 | 4.93 | 3.91 | 3.18 | 2.64 | 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.73 | Raw: 63.44 44.06 |
Raw: 45.52 19.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 78.35 | 65.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | 86.54 | 86.54 |
| Equity Value | -8.19 | -20.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8.74 | 8.74 |
| Fair Value | $-0.94 | $-2.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $-0.13 | $-0.34 |
| Current Price | $13.56 | $13.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -100.97% | -102.49% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10.65 | 8.49 | 6.53 | 5.14 | 4.16 | 3.44 | 2.91 | 2.52 | 2.23 | 2.02 | Raw: 98.44 73.28 |
Raw: 70.63 35.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 108.25 | 83.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 86.54 | 86.54 |
| Equity Value | 21.71 | -2.86 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8.74 | 8.74 |
| Fair Value | $2.48 | $-0.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $0.35 | $-0.05 |
| Current Price | $13.56 | $13.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.42% | -100.34% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 72.64 | 183.43 | 463.19 | 1,169.62 | 2,953.47 | 7,457.93 | 18,832.38 | 47,554.51 | 120,082.09 | 303,224.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% | 152.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.75 | 1.88 | 4.76 | 12.01 | 30.32 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 2.31 | 5.34 | 12.37 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-10-31 | $17.14 | -8.28% | $2.29 | -86.63% |
| 2018 | 2018-10-31 | $15.51 | -48.44% | $-8.57 | -155.26% |
| 2012 | 2012-10-31 | $22.24 | -2.80% | $19.75 | -11.20% |
| $-3.21 - $-2.90 | 7 |
| $-2.90 - $-2.58 | 50 |
| $-2.58 - $-2.27 | 90 |
| $-2.27 - $-1.96 | 169 |
| $-1.96 - $-1.64 | 153 |
| $-1.64 - $-1.33 | 137 |
| $-1.33 - $-1.01 | 117 |
| $-1.01 - $-0.70 | 85 |
| $-0.70 - $-0.38 | 77 |
| $-0.38 - $-0.07 | 41 |
| $-0.07 - $0.25 | 32 |
| $0.25 - $0.56 | 11 |
| $0.56 - $0.88 | 10 |
| $0.88 - $1.19 | 8 |
| $1.19 - $1.51 | 5 |
| $1.51 - $1.82 | 1 |
| $1.82 - $2.14 | 1 |
| $2.14 - $2.45 | 4 |
| $2.45 - $2.77 | 1 |
| $2.77 - $3.08 | 1 |