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Neutech Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.53
5Y Range-4.45 – -1.81
5Y Selected-3.13
(-) Safety Margin62.06%
5Y Buy Price$-1.29
Upside (to Buy Price)-151.01%
10Y Range-15.19 – -5.60
10Y Selected-10.40
(-) Safety Margin62.06%
10Y Buy Price$-4.29
Upside (to Buy Price)-269.57%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9978
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9784
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8713
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8209
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8809
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8687
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1326
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0000
Safety Score0.4127

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth14.06%12.94%11.82%10.71%9.59%8.47%7.35%6.24%5.12%4.00%
Revenue2,329.202,630.672,941.743,256.723,569.013,871.364,156.044,415.204,641.164,826.81
EBITDA796.05899.081,005.391,113.041,219.771,323.111,420.401,508.971,586.201,649.65
D&A-268.98-303.79-339.71-376.09-412.15-447.07-479.94-509.87-535.96-557.40
EBIT527.07595.29665.68736.96807.62876.04940.46999.111,050.241,092.25
Pro forma Taxes-116.07-131.10-146.60-162.30-177.86-192.93-207.11-220.03-231.29-240.54
NOPAT411.00464.19519.08574.66629.76683.11733.35779.08818.95851.71
Capital Expenditures-869.45-981.99-1,098.10-1,215.68-1,332.25-1,445.12-1,551.38-1,648.12-1,732.47-1,801.77
NWC Investment214.73225.45232.64235.55233.55226.11212.90193.81168.99138.83
(+) D&A268.98303.79339.71376.09412.15447.07479.94509.87535.96557.40
Free Cash Flow25.2511.44-6.68-29.38-56.79-88.83-125.20-165.37-208.57-253.83
Diluted Shares Outstanding641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50641,732,322.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.45%Terminal Growth: 3.11%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF25.0911.12-6.09-25.20-45.75-67.22-89.01-110.45-130.87-149.62
Raw: -1,755.42
-1,370.65
Raw: -7,845.78
-4,482.37

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-1,411.48-5,070.36
(-) Net Debt213.51213.51
Equity Value-1,625.00-5,283.88
(/) Shares Out641.73641.73
Fair Value$-2.53$-8.23
(-) Safety Margin62.06%62.06%
Buy Price$-0.96$-3.12
Current Price$2.53$2.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-137.97%-223.47%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.45%Terminal Growth: 2.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.54
PV UFCF25.0711.07-6.01-24.62-44.29-64.48-84.58-103.97-122.05-138.24
Raw: -1,205.05
-906.71
Raw: -5,385.91
-2,829.73

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-945.50-3,381.84
(-) Net Debt213.51213.51
Equity Value-1,159.02-3,595.35
(/) Shares Out641.73641.73
Fair Value$-1.81$-5.60
(-) Safety Margin62.06%62.06%
Buy Price$-0.69$-2.13
Current Price$2.53$2.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-127.08%-184.02%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.45%Terminal Growth: 3.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF25.1111.17-6.18-25.79-47.27-70.11-93.72-117.39-140.41-162.05
Raw: -3,205.17
-2,597.94
Raw: -14,325.36
-8,906.47

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-2,640.90-9,533.11
(-) Net Debt213.51213.51
Equity Value-2,854.41-9,746.62
(/) Shares Out641.73641.73
Fair Value$-4.45$-15.19
(-) Safety Margin62.06%62.06%
Buy Price$-1.69$-5.76
Current Price$2.53$2.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-166.70%-327.76%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.53
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH90.99%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue3,817.767,291.5813,926.2826,597.9750,799.7997,023.13185,305.65353,917.50675,951.321,291,007.61
Constant Implied Growth90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%90.99%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.380.731.392.665.089.7018.5335.3967.60129.10
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF0.370.631.122.013.616.4811.6320.8637.4367.16

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$5.5611.93%$-7.13-228.19%
20182018-12-31$5.4614.64%$10.8198.01%
20172017-12-31$5.1815.68%$9.2979.37%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-9.90
Median
$-8.19
10th Percentile
$-14.56
90th Percentile
$-5.64

Fair Value Distribution

$-78.89 - $-75.02
2
$-75.02 - $-71.14
0
$-71.14 - $-67.27
2
$-67.27 - $-63.40
0
$-63.40 - $-59.52
0
$-59.52 - $-55.65
0
$-55.65 - $-51.77
2
$-51.77 - $-47.90
0
$-47.90 - $-44.02
1
$-44.02 - $-40.15
2
$-40.15 - $-36.27
3
$-36.27 - $-32.40
2
$-32.40 - $-28.53
5
$-28.53 - $-24.65
6
$-24.65 - $-20.78
15
$-20.78 - $-16.90
28
$-16.90 - $-13.03
80
$-13.03 - $-9.15
243
$-9.15 - $-5.28
545
$-5.28 - $-1.40
62