Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $31.21 |
| 5Y Range | 21.70 – 29.61 |
| 5Y Selected | 25.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.68% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.59% |
| 10Y Range | 22.13 – 29.40 |
| 10Y Selected | 25.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.68% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.53% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1176 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3269 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2047 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3814 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3259 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1417 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0087 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3634 |
| Safety Score | 0.1632 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.85% | -0.32% | 0.22% | 0.76% | 1.30% | 1.84% | 2.38% | 2.92% | 3.46% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 100.81 | 100.49 | 100.72 | 101.49 | 102.81 | 104.70 | 107.20 | 110.33 | 114.15 | 118.71 |
| EBITDA | 20.24 | 20.18 | 20.22 | 20.38 | 20.64 | 21.02 | 21.52 | 22.15 | 22.92 | 23.84 |
| D&A | -0.75 | -0.74 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.76 | -0.78 | -0.79 | -0.82 | -0.85 | -0.88 |
| EBIT | 19.49 | 19.43 | 19.48 | 19.63 | 19.88 | 20.25 | 20.73 | 21.34 | 22.07 | 22.96 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -5.21 | -5.19 | -5.20 | -5.24 | -5.31 | -5.41 | -5.54 | -5.70 | -5.90 | -6.13 |
| NOPAT | 14.29 | 14.24 | 14.27 | 14.38 | 14.57 | 14.84 | 15.19 | 15.63 | 16.17 | 16.82 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1.23 | -1.23 | -1.23 | -1.24 | -1.25 | -1.28 | -1.31 | -1.35 | -1.39 | -1.45 |
| NWC Investment | 0.14 | 0.05 | -0.04 | -0.13 | -0.22 | -0.31 | -0.41 | -0.51 | -0.63 | -0.75 |
| (+) D&A | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13.94 | 13.81 | 13.75 | 13.77 | 13.86 | 14.02 | 14.27 | 14.59 | 15.00 | 15.50 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 | 10,094,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.82 | 13.27 | 12.11 | 11.11 | 10.25 | 9.51 | 8.87 | 8.31 | 7.83 | 7.42 | Raw: 204.16 144.62 |
Raw: 228.39 104.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 205.19 | 207.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | -45.13 | -45.13 |
| Equity Value | 250.31 | 252.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.09 | 10.09 |
| Fair Value | $24.80 | $25.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.68% | 83.68% |
| Buy Price | $4.05 | $4.08 |
| Current Price | $31.21 | $31.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.03% | -86.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.81 | 13.21 | 11.95 | 10.87 | 9.93 | 9.13 | 8.44 | 7.84 | 7.32 | 6.87 | Raw: 167.03 114.12 |
Raw: 186.86 78.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 173.89 | 178.28 |
| (-) Net Debt | -45.13 | -45.13 |
| Equity Value | 219.02 | 223.41 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.09 | 10.09 |
| Fair Value | $21.70 | $22.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.68% | 83.68% |
| Buy Price | $3.54 | $3.61 |
| Current Price | $31.21 | $31.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.65% | -88.43% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.84 | 13.32 | 12.27 | 11.37 | 10.58 | 9.91 | 9.33 | 8.82 | 8.39 | 8.02 | Raw: 261.79 192.32 |
Raw: 292.86 145.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 253.71 | 251.62 |
| (-) Net Debt | -45.13 | -45.13 |
| Equity Value | 298.84 | 296.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.09 | 10.09 |
| Fair Value | $29.61 | $29.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.68% | 83.68% |
| Buy Price | $4.83 | $4.80 |
| Current Price | $31.21 | $31.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.52% | -84.63% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 229.31 | 525.55 | 1,204.49 | 2,760.54 | 6,326.81 | 14,500.22 | 33,232.61 | 76,164.83 | 174,559.90 | 400,068.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% | 129.19% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.63 | 1.45 | 3.32 | 7.62 | 17.46 | 40.01 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 1.74 | 3.65 | 7.66 | 16.09 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $107.29 | -2.33% | $21.42 | -80.04% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $54.07 | 1.72% | $33.99 | -37.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $71.41 | 4.49% | $30.89 | -56.74% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $55.76 | 4.65% | $30.04 | -46.13% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $33.01 | 3.25% | $24.70 | -25.17% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $37.81 | 4.95% | $29.31 | -22.49% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $20.46 | 5.67% | $23.53 | 15.02% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $12.36 | 6.54% | $14.26 | 15.34% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $14.13 | 9.60% | $3.25 | -76.99% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $16.54 | 13.72% | $12.53 | -24.26% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $14.00 | 15.48% | $22.07 | 57.62% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $20.94 | 14.28% | $19.46 | -7.08% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $16.38 | 2.23% | $2.24 | -86.36% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $20.68 | -9.27% | $11.79 | -42.99% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $17.39 | -14.07% | $8.32 | -52.16% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $12.15 | -9.23% | $4.34 | -64.31% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $12.15 | 4.56% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $12.15 | 14.12% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $12.15 | 15.99% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $18.56 - $19.83 | 7 |
| $19.83 - $21.09 | 34 |
| $21.09 - $22.36 | 98 |
| $22.36 - $23.62 | 184 |
| $23.62 - $24.89 | 182 |
| $24.89 - $26.15 | 152 |
| $26.15 - $27.42 | 107 |
| $27.42 - $28.68 | 92 |
| $28.68 - $29.95 | 70 |
| $29.95 - $31.21 | 29 |
| $31.21 - $32.48 | 22 |
| $32.48 - $33.74 | 11 |
| $33.74 - $35.01 | 5 |
| $35.01 - $36.27 | 3 |
| $36.27 - $37.54 | 2 |
| $37.54 - $38.80 | 1 |
| $38.80 - $40.07 | 0 |
| $40.07 - $41.33 | 0 |
| $41.33 - $42.60 | 0 |
| $42.60 - $43.86 | 1 |