Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $16.48 |
| 5Y Range | 5.61 – 9.27 |
| 5Y Selected | 7.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.60% |
| 10Y Range | 5.64 – 8.90 |
| 10Y Selected | 7.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.74% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0220 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2256 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0301 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0554 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0303 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0563 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7415 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0829 |
| Safety Score | 0.1418 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -6.73% | -5.53% | -4.34% | -3.15% | -1.96% | -0.77% | 0.42% | 1.62% | 2.81% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6.25 | 5.91 | 5.65 | 5.47 | 5.37 | 5.32 | 5.35 | 5.43 | 5.59 | 5.81 |
| EBITDA | 11.87 | 11.21 | 10.72 | 10.38 | 10.18 | 10.10 | 10.15 | 10.31 | 10.60 | 11.02 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 11.87 | 11.21 | 10.72 | 10.38 | 10.18 | 10.10 | 10.15 | 10.31 | 10.60 | 11.02 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 11.87 | 11.21 | 10.72 | 10.38 | 10.18 | 10.10 | 10.15 | 10.31 | 10.60 | 11.02 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 11.90 | 11.23 | 10.74 | 10.40 | 10.19 | 10.11 | 10.14 | 10.30 | 10.59 | 11.01 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 | 15,624,921.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 11.79 | 10.57 | 9.25 | 8.21 | 7.38 | 6.71 | 6.17 | 5.74 | 5.41 | 5.16 | Raw: 148.94 103.23 |
Raw: 160.91 72.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 150.43 | 148.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 40.30 | 40.30 |
| Equity Value | 110.13 | 108.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.62 | 15.62 |
| Fair Value | $7.05 | $6.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% | 85.82% |
| Buy Price | $1.00 | $0.98 |
| Current Price | $16.48 | $16.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.94% | -94.04% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 11.78 | 10.50 | 9.11 | 8.01 | 7.13 | 6.42 | 5.86 | 5.40 | 5.04 | 4.76 | Raw: 122.01 81.38 |
Raw: 131.82 54.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 127.91 | 128.37 |
| (-) Net Debt | 40.30 | 40.30 |
| Equity Value | 87.61 | 88.07 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.62 | 15.62 |
| Fair Value | $5.61 | $5.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% | 85.82% |
| Buy Price | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Current Price | $16.48 | $16.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.18% | -95.15% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 11.80 | 10.64 | 9.40 | 8.42 | 7.63 | 7.00 | 6.50 | 6.11 | 5.81 | 5.59 | Raw: 190.59 137.32 |
Raw: 205.92 100.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 185.21 | 179.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 40.30 | 40.30 |
| Equity Value | 144.92 | 139.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.62 | 15.62 |
| Fair Value | $9.27 | $8.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.82% | 85.82% |
| Buy Price | $1.32 | $1.26 |
| Current Price | $16.48 | $16.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.02% | -92.34% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 69.14 | 182.03 | 479.25 | 1,261.77 | 3,321.99 | 8,746.19 | 23,027.07 | 60,625.96 | 159,616.78 | 420,241.06 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% | 163.28% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.87 | 2.30 | 6.06 | 15.96 | 42.02 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.53 | 1.28 | 3.10 | 7.48 | 18.04 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $22.31 | 0.69% | $15.86 | -28.89% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $21.20 | -28.87% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $4.16 - $4.65 | 5 |
| $4.65 - $5.15 | 36 |
| $5.15 - $5.64 | 93 |
| $5.64 - $6.13 | 116 |
| $6.13 - $6.62 | 156 |
| $6.62 - $7.12 | 154 |
| $7.12 - $7.61 | 129 |
| $7.61 - $8.10 | 93 |
| $8.10 - $8.60 | 82 |
| $8.60 - $9.09 | 44 |
| $9.09 - $9.58 | 33 |
| $9.58 - $10.07 | 11 |
| $10.07 - $10.57 | 22 |
| $10.57 - $11.06 | 12 |
| $11.06 - $11.55 | 7 |
| $11.55 - $12.05 | 4 |
| $12.05 - $12.54 | 2 |
| $12.54 - $13.03 | 0 |
| $13.03 - $13.52 | 0 |
| $13.52 - $14.02 | 0 |