Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $10.96 |
| 5Y Range | 2.94 – 5.39 |
| 5Y Selected | 4.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.64% |
| 10Y Range | 2.65 – 4.65 |
| 10Y Selected | 3.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.31% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0130 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0050 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0001 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0255 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1856 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1274 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0019 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0006 |
| Safety Score | 0.1410 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -13.98% | -11.98% | -9.98% | -7.98% | -5.99% | -3.99% | -1.99% | 0.01% | 2.00% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 11.83 | 10.41 | 9.37 | 8.63 | 8.11 | 7.79 | 7.63 | 7.63 | 7.78 | 8.10 |
| EBITDA | 9.53 | 8.39 | 7.55 | 6.95 | 6.53 | 6.27 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 6.27 | 6.52 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 9.53 | 8.39 | 7.55 | 6.95 | 6.53 | 6.27 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 6.27 | 6.52 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| NOPAT | 9.51 | 8.37 | 7.54 | 6.93 | 6.52 | 6.26 | 6.13 | 6.13 | 6.26 | 6.51 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 0.34 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.06 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9.85 | 8.62 | 7.72 | 7.07 | 6.61 | 6.32 | 6.16 | 6.13 | 6.23 | 6.45 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 | 14,832,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.77 | 8.29 | 6.80 | 5.70 | 4.89 | 4.28 | 3.83 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.09 | Raw: 95.04 67.32 |
Raw: 92.76 42.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 102.77 | 95.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 44.83 | 44.83 |
| Equity Value | 57.94 | 51.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.83 | 14.83 |
| Fair Value | $3.91 | $3.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $0.55 | $0.49 |
| Current Price | $10.96 | $10.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.97% | -95.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.76 | 8.25 | 6.71 | 5.58 | 4.74 | 4.11 | 3.64 | 3.30 | 3.04 | 2.86 | Raw: 78.07 53.34 |
Raw: 76.20 32.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 88.37 | 84.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 44.83 | 44.83 |
| Equity Value | 43.55 | 39.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.83 | 14.83 |
| Fair Value | $2.94 | $2.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $0.41 | $0.37 |
| Current Price | $10.96 | $10.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.22% | -96.59% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9.78 | 8.32 | 6.89 | 5.84 | 5.05 | 4.46 | 4.03 | 3.71 | 3.49 | 3.34 | Raw: 121.11 88.97 |
Raw: 118.20 58.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 124.84 | 113.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 44.83 | 44.83 |
| Equity Value | 80.02 | 68.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.83 | 14.83 |
| Fair Value | $5.39 | $4.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.90% | 85.90% |
| Buy Price | $0.76 | $0.66 |
| Current Price | $10.96 | $10.96 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.06% | -94.02% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 59.65 | 154.29 | 399.11 | 1,032.35 | 2,670.36 | 6,907.34 | 17,867.01 | 46,216.04 | 119,545.65 | 309,225.14 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% | 158.67% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 1.79 | 4.62 | 11.95 | 30.92 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.39 | 0.93 | 2.21 | 5.25 | 12.44 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $14.65 | 3.08% | $6.05 | -58.71% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $12.09 | -39.31% | $-3.92 | -132.41% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $15.54 | 1.46% | $0.08 | -99.50% |
| $1.67 - $1.95 | 7 |
| $1.95 - $2.23 | 13 |
| $2.23 - $2.50 | 41 |
| $2.50 - $2.78 | 107 |
| $2.78 - $3.06 | 111 |
| $3.06 - $3.33 | 145 |
| $3.33 - $3.61 | 141 |
| $3.61 - $3.89 | 121 |
| $3.89 - $4.16 | 98 |
| $4.16 - $4.44 | 68 |
| $4.44 - $4.72 | 49 |
| $4.72 - $4.99 | 30 |
| $4.99 - $5.27 | 21 |
| $5.27 - $5.54 | 17 |
| $5.54 - $5.82 | 11 |
| $5.82 - $6.10 | 6 |
| $6.10 - $6.37 | 6 |
| $6.37 - $6.65 | 2 |
| $6.65 - $6.93 | 1 |
| $6.93 - $7.20 | 5 |