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First Trust Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$10.02
5Y Range2.20 – 3.66
5Y Selected2.93
(-) Safety Margin85.25%
5Y Buy Price$0.43
Upside (to Buy Price)-95.69%
10Y Range2.20 – 3.49
10Y Selected2.84
(-) Safety Margin85.25%
10Y Buy Price$0.42
Upside (to Buy Price)-95.81%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0058
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0007
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0016
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0096
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8452
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6965
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0305
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1004
Safety Score0.1475

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth-8.04%-6.70%-5.37%-4.03%-2.69%-1.35%-0.01%1.32%2.66%4.00%
Revenue19.8418.5117.5116.8116.3616.1416.1316.3516.7817.45
EBITDA17.6416.4615.5714.9514.5414.3514.3514.5414.9215.52
D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
EBIT17.6416.4615.5714.9514.5414.3514.3514.5414.9215.52
Pro forma Taxes-7.03-6.55-6.20-5.95-5.79-5.72-5.71-5.79-5.94-6.18
NOPAT10.619.909.378.998.758.638.638.758.989.34
Capital Expenditures0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NWC Investment-0.01-0.01-0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
(+) D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Free Cash Flow10.609.899.368.998.758.638.638.758.989.34
Diluted Shares Outstanding32,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.0032,479,235.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMay-26May-27May-28May-29May-30May-31May-32May-33May-34May-35
Period Start11/30/246/1/266/1/276/1/286/1/296/1/306/1/316/1/326/1/336/1/34
Period End5/31/265/31/275/31/285/31/295/31/305/31/315/31/325/31/335/31/345/31/35
Mid-Point8/30/2511/30/2611/30/2711/30/2811/30/2911/30/3011/30/3111/30/3211/30/3311/30/34
Time (t)0.100.871.872.873.874.875.876.877.878.87
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.00%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.930.850.780.710.650.600.550.500.46
PV UFCF10.519.177.967.006.255.655.184.814.534.31
Raw: 125.72
85.93
Raw: 134.24
59.36

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value126.82124.73
(-) Net Debt36.6836.68
Equity Value90.1488.05
(/) Shares Out32.4832.48
Fair Value$2.78$2.71
(-) Safety Margin85.25%85.25%
Buy Price$0.41$0.40
Current Price$10.02$10.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-95.91%-96.01%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.50%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.920.840.760.690.630.570.520.470.43
PV UFCF10.509.107.826.826.035.404.914.524.213.98
Raw: 103.28
67.83
Raw: 110.27
44.77

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value108.10108.06
(-) Net Debt36.6836.68
Equity Value71.4271.38
(/) Shares Out32.4832.48
Fair Value$2.20$2.20
(-) Safety Margin85.25%85.25%
Buy Price$0.32$0.32
Current Price$10.02$10.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-96.76%-96.76%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.50%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.930.860.800.740.680.630.590.540.50
PV UFCF10.529.258.107.196.475.915.465.124.874.68
Raw: 160.19
113.99
Raw: 171.04
82.46

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value155.51150.02
(-) Net Debt36.6836.68
Equity Value118.83113.34
(/) Shares Out32.4832.48
Fair Value$3.66$3.49
(-) Safety Margin85.25%85.25%
Buy Price$0.54$0.51
Current Price$10.02$10.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.61%-94.86%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$10.02
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH148.67%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue141.64352.22875.872,178.025,416.0713,468.1233,491.1083,282.13207,097.21514,987.45
Constant Implied Growth148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%148.67%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.010.040.090.220.541.353.358.3320.7151.50
Discount Factor0.990.850.780.710.650.600.550.500.460.42
Present Value of Implied FCF0.010.030.070.160.350.811.844.209.5721.79

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20142014-05-31$14.00-40.52%$-5.17-136.95%
20132013-05-31$15.37-16.21%$-6.77-144.06%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$2.79
Median
$2.70
10th Percentile
$2.16
90th Percentile
$3.51

Fair Value Distribution

$1.70 - $1.87
9
$1.87 - $2.04
40
$2.04 - $2.21
72
$2.21 - $2.38
114
$2.38 - $2.55
142
$2.55 - $2.72
145
$2.72 - $2.89
124
$2.89 - $3.06
102
$3.06 - $3.23
63
$3.23 - $3.40
60
$3.40 - $3.57
40
$3.57 - $3.75
33
$3.75 - $3.92
16
$3.92 - $4.09
15
$4.09 - $4.26
7
$4.26 - $4.43
5
$4.43 - $4.60
5
$4.60 - $4.77
4
$4.77 - $4.94
0
$4.94 - $5.11
4