Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.97 |
| 5Y Range | 10.99 – 29.44 |
| 5Y Selected | 20.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.50% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $4.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 50.49% |
| 10Y Range | 11.77 – 30.34 |
| 10Y Selected | 21.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.50% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 56.77% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6071 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8875 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8549 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0391 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7857 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4032 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0107 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1797 |
| Safety Score | 0.2211 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.33% | 4.29% | 4.25% | 4.22% | 4.18% | 4.14% | 4.11% | 4.07% | 4.04% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 8,117.37 | 8,465.60 | 8,825.70 | 9,197.92 | 9,582.50 | 9,979.69 | 10,389.73 | 10,812.85 | 11,249.28 | 11,699.25 |
| EBITDA | 1,215.26 | 1,267.39 | 1,321.30 | 1,377.02 | 1,434.60 | 1,494.06 | 1,555.45 | 1,618.80 | 1,684.13 | 1,751.50 |
| D&A | -370.18 | -386.06 | -402.48 | -419.46 | -437.00 | -455.11 | -473.81 | -493.10 | -513.01 | -533.53 |
| EBIT | 845.07 | 881.33 | 918.82 | 957.57 | 997.60 | 1,038.96 | 1,081.64 | 1,125.69 | 1,171.13 | 1,217.97 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -232.11 | -242.07 | -252.36 | -263.01 | -274.00 | -285.36 | -297.09 | -309.18 | -321.66 | -334.53 |
| NOPAT | 612.97 | 639.26 | 666.45 | 694.56 | 723.60 | 753.59 | 784.56 | 816.51 | 849.46 | 883.44 |
| Capital Expenditures | -439.63 | -458.49 | -477.99 | -498.15 | -518.97 | -540.49 | -562.69 | -585.61 | -609.25 | -633.62 |
| NWC Investment | -67.18 | -69.50 | -71.87 | -74.29 | -76.76 | -79.27 | -81.84 | -84.45 | -87.11 | -89.81 |
| (+) D&A | 370.18 | 386.06 | 402.48 | 419.46 | 437.00 | 455.11 | 473.81 | 493.10 | 513.01 | 533.53 |
| Free Cash Flow | 476.34 | 497.34 | 519.08 | 541.58 | 564.86 | 588.94 | 613.83 | 639.55 | 666.12 | 693.55 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 | 969,066,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 473.43 | 483.51 | 474.66 | 465.81 | 456.96 | 448.12 | 439.31 | 430.51 | 421.74 | 413.01 | Raw: 17,835.34 13,992.96 |
Raw: 21,898.42 12,647.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,347.33 | 17,154.31 |
| (-) Net Debt | 866.92 | 866.92 |
| Equity Value | 15,480.41 | 16,287.39 |
| (/) Shares Out | 969.07 | 969.07 |
| Fair Value | $15.97 | $16.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.50% | 81.50% |
| Buy Price | $2.96 | $3.11 |
| Current Price | $2.97 | $2.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -0.50% | 4.69% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 472.99 | 481.44 | 468.22 | 455.20 | 442.39 | 429.80 | 417.41 | 405.25 | 393.30 | 381.56 | Raw: 12,160.22 9,193.26 |
Raw: 14,930.45 7,929.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,513.49 | 12,276.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 866.92 | 866.92 |
| Equity Value | 10,646.57 | 11,409.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 969.07 | 969.07 |
| Fair Value | $10.99 | $11.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.50% | 81.50% |
| Buy Price | $2.03 | $2.18 |
| Current Price | $2.97 | $2.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -31.57% | -26.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 473.88 | 485.62 | 481.26 | 476.76 | 472.15 | 467.41 | 462.57 | 457.61 | 452.55 | 447.39 | Raw: 33,162.81 27,010.47 |
Raw: 40,717.65 25,594.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,400.13 | 30,271.26 |
| (-) Net Debt | 866.92 | 866.92 |
| Equity Value | 28,533.21 | 29,404.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 969.07 | 969.07 |
| Fair Value | $29.44 | $30.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.50% | 81.50% |
| Buy Price | $5.45 | $5.61 |
| Current Price | $2.97 | $2.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 83.41% | 89.00% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 26,155.81 | 43,350.89 | 71,850.19 | 119,085.19 | 197,372.95 | 327,127.83 | 542,184.83 | 898,622.38 | 1,489,385.43 | 2,468,521.81 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% | 65.74% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.62 | 4.34 | 7.19 | 11.91 | 19.74 | 32.71 | 54.22 | 89.86 | 148.94 | 246.85 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.51 | 3.73 | 5.81 | 9.06 | 14.13 | 22.02 | 34.33 | 53.51 | 83.42 | 130.05 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $6.23 | 4.85% | $14.44 | 131.84% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5.65 | 5.52% | $-1.63 | -128.77% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $5.12 | 9.38% | $0.05 | -99.04% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.40 | 20.00% | $6.04 | -5.59% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $5.72 | 24.86% | $-3.47 | -160.67% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6.47 | 27.13% | $-2.60 | -140.24% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5.74 | 26.02% | $-0.56 | -109.68% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.25 | 26.02% | $-0.35 | -110.78% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.61 | 30.31% | $-8.42 | -623.01% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $1.54 | 35.61% | $6.22 | 303.77% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.89 | 35.10% | $3.66 | 93.81% |
| $8.24 - $30.44 | 903 |
| $30.44 - $52.63 | 80 |
| $52.63 - $74.83 | 8 |
| $74.83 - $97.02 | 4 |
| $97.02 - $119.22 | 0 |
| $119.22 - $141.41 | 0 |
| $141.41 - $163.61 | 1 |
| $163.61 - $185.80 | 0 |
| $185.80 - $208.00 | 1 |
| $208.00 - $230.19 | 0 |
| $230.19 - $252.39 | 0 |
| $252.39 - $274.58 | 1 |
| $274.58 - $296.78 | 0 |
| $296.78 - $318.97 | 0 |
| $318.97 - $341.16 | 0 |
| $341.16 - $363.36 | 0 |
| $363.36 - $385.55 | 0 |
| $385.55 - $407.75 | 0 |
| $407.75 - $429.94 | 0 |
| $429.94 - $452.14 | 2 |