Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.16 |
| 5Y Range | 39.41 – 75.68 |
| 5Y Selected | 57.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $10.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 25.95% |
| 10Y Range | 44.10 – 82.65 |
| 10Y Selected | 63.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 38.71% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6297 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4025 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1893 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1405 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0033 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6593 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2154 |
| Safety Score | 0.1786 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.77% | 8.24% | 7.71% | 7.18% | 6.65% | 6.12% | 5.59% | 5.06% | 4.53% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,332.75 | 1,442.53 | 1,553.72 | 1,665.24 | 1,775.95 | 1,884.61 | 1,989.94 | 2,090.62 | 2,185.31 | 2,272.73 |
| EBITDA | 751.18 | 813.06 | 875.72 | 938.58 | 1,000.98 | 1,062.23 | 1,121.59 | 1,178.34 | 1,231.71 | 1,280.98 |
| D&A | -136.84 | -148.11 | -159.52 | -170.97 | -182.34 | -193.50 | -204.31 | -214.65 | -224.37 | -233.34 |
| EBIT | 614.35 | 664.95 | 716.20 | 767.61 | 818.64 | 868.73 | 917.28 | 963.69 | 1,007.34 | 1,047.64 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -47.53 | -51.44 | -55.41 | -59.39 | -63.34 | -67.21 | -70.97 | -74.56 | -77.93 | -81.05 |
| NOPAT | 566.82 | 613.51 | 660.79 | 708.22 | 755.31 | 801.52 | 846.32 | 889.14 | 929.41 | 966.59 |
| Capital Expenditures | -76.80 | -83.13 | -89.54 | -95.96 | -102.34 | -108.61 | -114.68 | -120.48 | -125.94 | -130.97 |
| NWC Investment | 26.49 | 27.07 | 27.42 | 27.50 | 27.30 | 26.80 | 25.98 | 24.83 | 23.35 | 21.56 |
| (+) D&A | 136.84 | 148.11 | 159.52 | 170.97 | 182.34 | 193.50 | 204.31 | 214.65 | 224.37 | 233.34 |
| Free Cash Flow | 653.34 | 705.56 | 758.20 | 810.73 | 862.60 | 913.21 | 961.93 | 1,008.13 | 1,051.20 | 1,090.52 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 | 372,688,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 649.17 | 685.08 | 690.53 | 692.58 | 691.19 | 686.35 | 678.13 | 666.62 | 651.98 | 634.42 | Raw: 19,985.16 15,509.14 |
Raw: 25,265.48 14,235.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 18,917.69 | 20,961.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | -230.79 | -230.79 |
| Equity Value | 19,148.48 | 21,192.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 372.69 | 372.69 |
| Fair Value | $51.38 | $56.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $7.64 | $8.46 |
| Current Price | $8.16 | $8.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.37% | 3.62% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 648.56 | 682.14 | 681.18 | 676.86 | 669.22 | 658.36 | 644.42 | 627.60 | 608.12 | 586.24 | Raw: 14,840.88 11,098.99 |
Raw: 18,762.02 9,722.77 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,456.95 | 16,205.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | -230.79 | -230.79 |
| Equity Value | 14,687.74 | 16,436.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 372.69 | 372.69 |
| Fair Value | $39.41 | $44.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $5.86 | $6.56 |
| Current Price | $8.16 | $8.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -28.18% | -19.63% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 649.78 | 688.05 | 700.10 | 708.83 | 714.10 | 715.81 | 713.93 | 708.46 | 699.47 | 687.07 | Raw: 30,430.57 24,513.06 |
Raw: 38,470.69 23,585.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,973.92 | 30,570.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | -230.79 | -230.79 |
| Equity Value | 28,204.71 | 30,801.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 372.69 | 372.69 |
| Fair Value | $75.68 | $82.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $11.25 | $12.29 |
| Current Price | $8.16 | $8.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 37.91% | 50.61% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,923.16 | 9,642.59 | 18,886.16 | 36,990.77 | 72,450.80 | 141,903.44 | 277,934.66 | 544,367.88 | 1,066,208.81 | 2,088,295.94 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% | 95.86% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.49 | 0.96 | 1.89 | 3.70 | 7.25 | 14.19 | 27.79 | 54.44 | 106.62 | 208.83 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.47 | 0.82 | 1.51 | 2.78 | 5.11 | 9.38 | 17.24 | 31.67 | 58.18 | 106.89 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $12.12 | 11.78% | $74.78 | 517.02% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $11.64 | 3.78% | $1.90 | -83.68% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $12.68 | 20.77% | $10.94 | -13.76% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $11.20 | 2.72% | $10.52 | -6.04% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $10.36 | 19.56% | $8.59 | -17.10% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $7.41 | 9.73% | $7.95 | 7.34% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $6.34 | 4.55% | $6.15 | -2.93% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $6.45 | 23.15% | $-3.81 | -158.99% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $6.30 | 0.13% | $2.99 | -52.49% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.83 | 12.16% | $-4.03 | -159.02% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $7.42 | 6.44% | $3.19 | -57.04% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $6.40 | 6.43% | $1.92 | -70.07% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $8.54 | 2.88% | $4.43 | -48.11% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $6.65 | -4.67% | $2.57 | -61.29% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $5.75 | -6.79% | $2.06 | -64.25% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $5.65 | -5.19% | $2.69 | -52.44% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $4.10 | -3.58% | $2.86 | -30.16% |
| $31.86 - $41.18 | 48 |
| $41.18 - $50.50 | 229 |
| $50.50 - $59.83 | 296 |
| $59.83 - $69.15 | 202 |
| $69.15 - $78.47 | 119 |
| $78.47 - $87.80 | 44 |
| $87.80 - $97.12 | 23 |
| $97.12 - $106.44 | 18 |
| $106.44 - $115.77 | 6 |
| $115.77 - $125.09 | 6 |
| $125.09 - $134.41 | 3 |
| $134.41 - $143.74 | 2 |
| $143.74 - $153.06 | 0 |
| $153.06 - $162.38 | 2 |
| $162.38 - $171.71 | 0 |
| $171.71 - $181.03 | 1 |
| $181.03 - $190.35 | 0 |
| $190.35 - $199.68 | 0 |
| $199.68 - $209.00 | 0 |
| $209.00 - $218.32 | 1 |