Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.50 |
| 5Y Range | 128.51 – 183.57 |
| 5Y Selected | 156.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.26% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 170.59% |
| 10Y Range | 125.86 – 172.89 |
| 10Y Selected | 149.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.26% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $22.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 159.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9167 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2731 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0405 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2953 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2660 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0986 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1731 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1371 |
| Safety Score | 0.1474 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -10.66% | -9.03% | -7.40% | -5.77% | -4.14% | -2.52% | -0.89% | 0.74% | 2.37% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 542.32 | 493.35 | 456.83 | 430.46 | 412.62 | 402.25 | 398.68 | 401.64 | 411.16 | 427.61 |
| EBITDA | 3,024.09 | 2,751.00 | 2,547.38 | 2,400.33 | 2,300.86 | 2,242.99 | 2,223.11 | 2,239.61 | 2,292.72 | 2,384.43 |
| D&A | -122.95 | -111.85 | -103.57 | -97.59 | -93.55 | -91.19 | -90.39 | -91.06 | -93.22 | -96.94 |
| EBIT | 2,901.14 | 2,639.15 | 2,443.82 | 2,302.74 | 2,207.32 | 2,151.80 | 2,132.72 | 2,148.56 | 2,199.50 | 2,287.48 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -609.24 | -554.22 | -513.20 | -483.58 | -463.54 | -451.88 | -447.87 | -451.20 | -461.90 | -480.37 |
| NOPAT | 2,291.90 | 2,084.93 | 1,930.61 | 1,819.16 | 1,743.78 | 1,699.92 | 1,684.85 | 1,697.36 | 1,737.61 | 1,807.11 |
| Capital Expenditures | -226.16 | -205.74 | -190.51 | -179.51 | -172.08 | -167.75 | -166.26 | -167.50 | -171.47 | -178.33 |
| NWC Investment | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| (+) D&A | 122.95 | 111.85 | 103.57 | 97.59 | 93.55 | 91.19 | 90.39 | 91.06 | 93.22 | 96.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,188.68 | 1,991.04 | 1,843.67 | 1,737.24 | 1,665.25 | 1,623.37 | 1,608.98 | 1,620.92 | 1,659.36 | 1,725.73 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 | 173,086,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,169.71 | 1,912.86 | 1,623.57 | 1,402.27 | 1,232.06 | 1,100.91 | 1,000.16 | 923.56 | 866.62 | 826.12 | Raw: 24,432.10 17,306.38 |
Raw: 25,319.47 11,604.23 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,646.86 | 24,662.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | -337.80 | -337.80 |
| Equity Value | 25,984.65 | 24,999.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 173.09 | 173.09 |
| Fair Value | $150.13 | $144.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.26% | 85.26% |
| Buy Price | $22.13 | $21.29 |
| Current Price | $8.50 | $8.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 160.33% | 150.47% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,167.73 | 1,904.85 | 1,602.08 | 1,371.14 | 1,193.78 | 1,057.01 | 951.56 | 870.70 | 809.59 | 764.75 | Raw: 20,002.51 13,665.89 |
Raw: 20,729.00 8,754.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,905.47 | 21,447.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | -337.80 | -337.80 |
| Equity Value | 22,243.27 | 21,785.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 173.09 | 173.09 |
| Fair Value | $128.51 | $125.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.26% | 85.26% |
| Buy Price | $18.94 | $18.55 |
| Current Price | $8.50 | $8.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 122.85% | 118.26% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,171.71 | 1,920.98 | 1,645.54 | 1,434.39 | 1,271.95 | 1,147.07 | 1,051.73 | 980.17 | 928.24 | 893.05 | Raw: 31,294.89 22,990.87 |
Raw: 32,431.52 16,142.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,435.45 | 29,586.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | -337.80 | -337.80 |
| Equity Value | 31,773.25 | 29,924.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 173.09 | 173.09 |
| Fair Value | $183.57 | $172.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.26% | 85.26% |
| Buy Price | $27.06 | $25.48 |
| Current Price | $8.50 | $8.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 218.33% | 199.81% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,339.88 | 2,957.48 | 6,527.97 | 14,409.03 | 31,804.70 | 70,201.74 | 154,954.56 | 342,027.40 | 754,948.65 | 1,666,379.59 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% | 120.73% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.65 | 1.44 | 3.18 | 7.02 | 15.50 | 34.20 | 75.49 | 166.64 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 0.98 | 1.98 | 4.00 | 8.09 | 16.37 | 33.13 | 67.02 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.50 | -16.11% | $-70.67 | -1,187.15% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6.50 | -1.91% | $-164.27 | -2,627.20% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $6.50 | 18.40% | $-6.48 | -199.74% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $6.50 | 30.08% | $66.98 | 930.49% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $6.50 | 30.86% | $28.12 | 332.67% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.50 | 24.48% | $20.19 | 210.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $6.50 | 12.02% | $385.96 | 5,837.87% |
| $105.42 - $113.23 | 10 |
| $113.23 - $121.05 | 46 |
| $121.05 - $128.87 | 107 |
| $128.87 - $136.69 | 150 |
| $136.69 - $144.50 | 184 |
| $144.50 - $152.32 | 154 |
| $152.32 - $160.14 | 133 |
| $160.14 - $167.95 | 72 |
| $167.95 - $175.77 | 57 |
| $175.77 - $183.59 | 42 |
| $183.59 - $191.41 | 20 |
| $191.41 - $199.22 | 11 |
| $199.22 - $207.04 | 6 |
| $207.04 - $214.86 | 0 |
| $214.86 - $222.68 | 3 |
| $222.68 - $230.49 | 1 |
| $230.49 - $238.31 | 0 |
| $238.31 - $246.13 | 1 |
| $246.13 - $253.94 | 2 |
| $253.94 - $261.76 | 1 |