Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $7.29 |
| 5Y Range | 3.12 – 6.42 |
| 5Y Selected | 4.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.87% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.99 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.43% |
| 10Y Range | 4.16 – 8.31 |
| 10Y Selected | 6.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.87% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.26% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3730 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1791 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5643 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1984 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5925 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3246 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4031 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7628 |
| Safety Score | 0.2074 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -18.71% | -16.19% | -13.67% | -11.14% | -8.62% | -6.10% | -3.57% | -1.05% | 1.48% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10.88 | 9.12 | 7.87 | 7.00 | 6.39 | 6.00 | 5.79 | 5.73 | 5.81 | 6.05 |
| EBITDA | 12.27 | 10.28 | 8.88 | 7.89 | 7.21 | 6.77 | 6.53 | 6.46 | 6.55 | 6.82 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 12.27 | 10.28 | 8.88 | 7.89 | 7.21 | 6.77 | 6.53 | 6.46 | 6.55 | 6.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2.58 | -2.16 | -1.86 | -1.66 | -1.51 | -1.42 | -1.37 | -1.36 | -1.38 | -1.43 |
| NOPAT | 9.69 | 8.12 | 7.01 | 6.23 | 5.70 | 5.35 | 5.16 | 5.10 | 5.18 | 5.39 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -6.98 | -4.91 | -3.47 | -2.44 | -1.68 | -1.09 | -0.60 | -0.17 | 0.24 | 0.65 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.71 | 3.22 | 3.54 | 3.79 | 4.02 | 4.26 | 4.56 | 4.93 | 5.41 | 6.03 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 | 16,295,859.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.70 | 3.12 | 3.22 | 3.22 | 3.20 | 3.18 | 3.18 | 3.22 | 3.31 | 3.45 | Raw: 86.61 66.69 |
Raw: 130.13 72.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 82.14 | 103.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | 12.91 | 12.91 |
| Equity Value | 69.23 | 90.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.30 | 16.30 |
| Fair Value | $4.25 | $5.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.87% | 81.87% |
| Buy Price | $0.77 | $1.01 |
| Current Price | $7.29 | $7.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.43% | -86.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.69 | 3.11 | 3.17 | 3.15 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 3.02 | 3.03 | 3.09 | 3.19 | Raw: 65.44 48.57 |
Raw: 98.33 50.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 63.78 | 80.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 12.91 | 12.91 |
| Equity Value | 50.87 | 67.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.30 | 16.30 |
| Fair Value | $3.12 | $4.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.87% | 81.87% |
| Buy Price | $0.57 | $0.75 |
| Current Price | $7.29 | $7.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.24% | -89.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.70 | 3.13 | 3.26 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.31 | 3.35 | 3.42 | 3.55 | 3.74 | Raw: 127.41 101.83 |
Raw: 191.44 115.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 117.52 | 148.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 12.91 | 12.91 |
| Equity Value | 104.61 | 135.45 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.30 | 16.30 |
| Fair Value | $6.42 | $8.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.87% | 81.87% |
| Buy Price | $1.16 | $1.51 |
| Current Price | $7.29 | $7.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.03% | -79.33% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 57.37 | 132.37 | 305.41 | 704.65 | 1,625.80 | 3,751.14 | 8,654.82 | 19,968.83 | 46,073.11 | 106,302.23 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% | 130.73% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.87 | 2.00 | 4.61 | 10.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.53 | 1.14 | 2.47 | 5.33 |
| $3.13 - $3.78 | 34 |
| $3.78 - $4.42 | 110 |
| $4.42 - $5.06 | 185 |
| $5.06 - $5.70 | 212 |
| $5.70 - $6.34 | 156 |
| $6.34 - $6.99 | 99 |
| $6.99 - $7.63 | 59 |
| $7.63 - $8.27 | 47 |
| $8.27 - $8.91 | 21 |
| $8.91 - $9.56 | 25 |
| $9.56 - $10.20 | 16 |
| $10.20 - $10.84 | 11 |
| $10.84 - $11.48 | 7 |
| $11.48 - $12.13 | 3 |
| $12.13 - $12.77 | 3 |
| $12.77 - $13.41 | 3 |
| $13.41 - $14.05 | 0 |
| $14.05 - $14.69 | 3 |
| $14.69 - $15.34 | 3 |
| $15.34 - $15.98 | 3 |