Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $37.46 |
| 5Y Range | 455.97 – 746.18 |
| 5Y Selected | 601.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.55% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $140.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 276.32% |
| 10Y Range | 660.73 – 1,058.21 |
| 10Y Selected | 859.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.55% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $201.55 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 438.10% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9046 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9226 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5807 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1070 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5561 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4926 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.7787 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4341 |
| Safety Score | 0.2345 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 38.45% | 34.62% | 30.80% | 26.97% | 23.14% | 19.31% | 15.48% | 11.66% | 7.83% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 713.80 | 960.95 | 1,256.89 | 1,595.84 | 1,965.12 | 2,344.63 | 2,707.67 | 3,023.28 | 3,259.94 | 3,390.33 |
| EBITDA | 590.60 | 795.09 | 1,039.94 | 1,320.40 | 1,625.93 | 1,939.94 | 2,240.31 | 2,501.45 | 2,697.26 | 2,805.15 |
| D&A | -240.92 | -324.34 | -424.22 | -538.63 | -663.26 | -791.35 | -913.89 | -1,020.41 | -1,100.29 | -1,144.30 |
| EBIT | 349.68 | 470.75 | 615.72 | 781.77 | 962.67 | 1,148.58 | 1,326.43 | 1,481.04 | 1,596.97 | 1,660.85 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -73.43 | -98.86 | -129.30 | -164.17 | -202.16 | -241.20 | -278.55 | -311.02 | -335.36 | -348.78 |
| NOPAT | 276.25 | 371.89 | 486.42 | 617.60 | 760.51 | 907.38 | 1,047.88 | 1,170.02 | 1,261.61 | 1,312.07 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4.61 | -6.21 | -8.12 | -10.31 | -12.70 | -15.15 | -17.50 | -19.54 | -21.06 | -21.91 |
| NWC Investment | 12.22 | 15.23 | 18.24 | 20.89 | 22.76 | 23.39 | 22.37 | 19.45 | 14.58 | 8.04 |
| (+) D&A | 240.92 | 324.34 | 424.22 | 538.63 | 663.26 | 791.35 | 913.89 | 1,020.41 | 1,100.29 | 1,144.30 |
| Free Cash Flow | 524.77 | 705.25 | 920.76 | 1,166.80 | 1,433.83 | 1,706.97 | 1,966.64 | 2,190.34 | 2,355.41 | 2,442.50 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 | 30,931,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 520.22 | 677.56 | 810.83 | 941.82 | 1,060.85 | 1,157.61 | 1,222.49 | 1,248.00 | 1,230.14 | 1,169.24 | Raw: 22,136.35 15,680.20 |
Raw: 37,708.74 17,282.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,691.48 | 27,321.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,115.09 | 2,115.09 |
| Equity Value | 17,576.39 | 25,206.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.93 | 30.93 |
| Fair Value | $568.24 | $814.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.55% | 76.55% |
| Buy Price | $133.25 | $191.09 |
| Current Price | $37.46 | $37.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 255.76% | 410.20% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 519.75 | 674.72 | 800.11 | 920.91 | 1,027.88 | 1,111.45 | 1,163.08 | 1,176.57 | 1,149.19 | 1,082.38 | Raw: 17,967.41 12,275.49 |
Raw: 30,607.04 12,926.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,218.86 | 22,552.44 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,115.09 | 2,115.09 |
| Equity Value | 14,103.77 | 20,437.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.93 | 30.93 |
| Fair Value | $455.97 | $660.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.55% | 76.55% |
| Buy Price | $106.92 | $154.94 |
| Current Price | $37.46 | $37.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 185.47% | 313.67% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 520.70 | 680.44 | 821.81 | 963.40 | 1,095.19 | 1,206.14 | 1,285.53 | 1,324.49 | 1,317.61 | 1,263.97 | Raw: 28,740.09 21,113.98 |
Raw: 48,958.05 24,367.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,195.52 | 34,847.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,115.09 | 2,115.09 |
| Equity Value | 23,080.43 | 32,732.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.93 | 30.93 |
| Fair Value | $746.18 | $1,058.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 76.55% | 76.55% |
| Buy Price | $174.98 | $248.15 |
| Current Price | $37.46 | $37.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 367.17% | 562.53% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,373.90 | 3,409.43 | 8,460.73 | 20,995.88 | 52,102.69 | 129,296.34 | 320,857.59 | 796,229.73 | 1,975,897.73 | 4,903,323.37 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.85 | 2.10 | 5.21 | 12.93 | 32.09 | 79.62 | 197.59 | 490.33 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.13 | 0.28 | 0.63 | 1.42 | 3.24 | 7.37 | 16.76 | 38.12 | 86.70 | 197.21 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $30.00 | 47.75% | $128.22 | 327.41% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $30.00 | 44.04% | $107.66 | 258.85% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $30.00 | 24.01% | $84.64 | 182.13% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $30.00 | -12.81% | $21.18 | -29.40% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $30.00 | -13.39% | $-3.51 | -111.69% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $30.00 | -8.58% | $-14.94 | -149.81% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $30.00 | -5.82% | $-4.54 | -115.14% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $30.00 | -3.37% | $-9.73 | -132.42% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $30.00 | -2.28% | $-9.29 | -130.95% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $30.00 | -3.73% | $39.90 | 32.99% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $30.00 | -5.67% | $-30.25 | -200.84% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $30.00 | -11.17% | $-94.12 | -413.73% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $30.00 | -22.48% | $-98.45 | -428.18% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $30.00 | -23.89% | $-75.75 | -352.49% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $30.00 | -18.53% | $-108.59 | -461.95% |
| $510.78 - $582.48 | 14 |
| $582.48 - $654.17 | 94 |
| $654.17 - $725.86 | 161 |
| $725.86 - $797.56 | 202 |
| $797.56 - $869.25 | 185 |
| $869.25 - $940.95 | 134 |
| $940.95 - $1,012.64 | 86 |
| $1,012.64 - $1,084.34 | 44 |
| $1,084.34 - $1,156.03 | 34 |
| $1,156.03 - $1,227.73 | 14 |
| $1,227.73 - $1,299.42 | 16 |
| $1,299.42 - $1,371.12 | 5 |
| $1,371.12 - $1,442.81 | 4 |
| $1,442.81 - $1,514.50 | 2 |
| $1,514.50 - $1,586.20 | 1 |
| $1,586.20 - $1,657.89 | 0 |
| $1,657.89 - $1,729.59 | 1 |
| $1,729.59 - $1,801.28 | 0 |
| $1,801.28 - $1,872.98 | 1 |
| $1,872.98 - $1,944.67 | 2 |