Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $410.66 |
| 5Y Range | 218.23 – 346.68 |
| 5Y Selected | 282.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.92% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $76.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.37% |
| 10Y Range | 263.26 – 408.17 |
| 10Y Selected | 335.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.92% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $90.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.86% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6472 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8117 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4384 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5713 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6461 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6323 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4673 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1668 |
| Safety Score | 0.2708 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.87% | 9.22% | 8.56% | 7.91% | 7.26% | 6.61% | 5.96% | 5.30% | 4.65% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,477.18 | 4,889.83 | 5,308.61 | 5,728.65 | 6,144.57 | 6,550.63 | 6,940.79 | 7,308.94 | 7,648.96 | 7,954.92 |
| EBITDA | 617.19 | 674.07 | 731.81 | 789.71 | 847.04 | 903.02 | 956.80 | 1,007.56 | 1,054.43 | 1,096.60 |
| D&A | -123.02 | -134.36 | -145.87 | -157.41 | -168.84 | -180.00 | -190.72 | -200.83 | -210.18 | -218.58 |
| EBIT | 494.17 | 539.71 | 585.94 | 632.30 | 678.20 | 723.02 | 766.09 | 806.72 | 844.25 | 878.02 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -146.31 | -159.80 | -173.48 | -187.21 | -200.80 | -214.07 | -226.82 | -238.85 | -249.96 | -259.96 |
| NOPAT | 347.86 | 379.92 | 412.45 | 445.09 | 477.40 | 508.95 | 539.27 | 567.87 | 594.29 | 618.06 |
| Capital Expenditures | -112.21 | -122.55 | -133.04 | -143.57 | -153.99 | -164.17 | -173.95 | -183.18 | -191.70 | -199.36 |
| NWC Investment | -73.11 | -75.02 | -76.14 | -76.37 | -75.62 | -73.82 | -70.94 | -66.93 | -61.82 | -55.63 |
| (+) D&A | 123.02 | 134.36 | 145.87 | 157.41 | 168.84 | 180.00 | 190.72 | 200.83 | 210.18 | 218.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | 285.56 | 316.71 | 349.14 | 382.56 | 416.63 | 450.96 | 485.10 | 518.60 | 550.95 | 581.65 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 | 20,019,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/27/25 | 12/29/25 | 12/29/26 | 12/29/27 | 12/29/28 | 12/29/29 | 12/29/30 | 12/29/31 | 12/29/32 | 12/29/33 |
| Period End | 12/28/25 | 12/28/26 | 12/28/27 | 12/28/28 | 12/28/29 | 12/28/30 | 12/28/31 | 12/28/32 | 12/28/33 | 12/28/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/12/25 | 6/29/26 | 6/29/27 | 6/28/28 | 6/29/29 | 6/29/30 | 6/29/31 | 6/28/32 | 6/29/33 | 6/29/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.45 | 3.45 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 6.45 | 7.45 | 8.45 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 283.08 | 304.54 | 307.73 | 309.07 | 308.52 | 306.09 | 301.81 | 295.74 | 287.99 | 278.68 | Raw: 6,375.46 4,519.97 |
Raw: 8,900.67 4,082.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,032.90 | 7,066.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | 666.41 | 666.41 |
| Equity Value | 5,366.49 | 6,399.67 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.02 | 20.02 |
| Fair Value | $268.06 | $319.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.92% | 72.92% |
| Buy Price | $72.59 | $86.57 |
| Current Price | $410.66 | $410.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.32% | -78.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 282.82 | 303.29 | 303.68 | 302.23 | 298.96 | 293.91 | 287.17 | 278.84 | 269.06 | 258.00 | Raw: 5,182.67 3,544.25 |
Raw: 7,235.44 3,058.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,035.25 | 5,936.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 666.41 | 666.41 |
| Equity Value | 4,368.84 | 5,270.28 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.02 | 20.02 |
| Fair Value | $218.23 | $263.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.92% | 72.92% |
| Buy Price | $59.10 | $71.29 |
| Current Price | $410.66 | $410.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -85.61% | -82.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 283.34 | 305.80 | 311.86 | 316.12 | 318.48 | 318.89 | 317.34 | 313.84 | 308.44 | 301.23 | Raw: 8,257.44 6,071.07 |
Raw: 11,528.06 5,742.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,606.68 | 8,837.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | 666.41 | 666.41 |
| Equity Value | 6,940.27 | 8,171.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.02 | 20.02 |
| Fair Value | $346.68 | $408.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 72.92% | 72.92% |
| Buy Price | $93.88 | $110.53 |
| Current Price | $410.66 | $410.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.14% | -73.08% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 9,193.49 | 20,598.94 | 46,153.99 | 103,412.66 | 231,706.46 | 519,161.63 | 1,163,233.84 | 2,606,342.43 | 5,839,772.37 | 13,084,597.39 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.92 | 2.06 | 4.62 | 10.34 | 23.17 | 51.92 | 116.32 | 260.63 | 583.98 | 1,308.46 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.86 | 1.66 | 3.42 | 7.02 | 14.42 | 29.61 | 60.80 | 124.88 | 256.46 | 526.26 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $149.78 | 9.86% | $198.94 | 32.82% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $110.95 | 12.95% | $75.00 | -32.41% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $165.85 | 12.58% | $91.56 | -44.80% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $140.90 | 7.02% | $129.98 | -7.75% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $106.02 | 4.37% | $159.77 | 50.70% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $127.00 | 3.56% | $53.16 | -58.14% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $149.12 | 1.16% | $176.89 | 18.62% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $136.55 | -1.17% | $51.25 | -62.47% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $90.79 | -1.45% | $31.00 | -65.86% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $88.73 | 2.72% | $70.46 | -20.59% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $78.45 | 11.50% | $289.61 | 269.16% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $61.36 | 15.91% | $-9.27 | -115.10% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $89.12 | 12.59% | $48.85 | -45.18% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $55.49 | 11.10% | $23.17 | -58.25% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $33.46 | 9.56% | $84.34 | 152.05% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $25.11 | 11.97% | $-24.12 | -196.07% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $23.15 | 13.19% | $41.01 | 77.16% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $19.40 | 11.85% | $51.38 | 164.84% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $14.46 | 9.72% | $71.63 | 395.34% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $18.38 | 6.74% | $-40.54 | -320.57% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $16.06 | 3.25% | $12.04 | -25.02% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $13.88 | 6.30% | $-17.05 | -222.80% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $19.50 | 12.36% | $-15.86 | -181.34% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $20.63 | 13.98% | $-18.16 | -188.02% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $12.38 | 10.39% | $-6.15 | -149.64% |
| $198.74 - $231.06 | 11 |
| $231.06 - $263.38 | 80 |
| $263.38 - $295.71 | 207 |
| $295.71 - $328.03 | 236 |
| $328.03 - $360.35 | 207 |
| $360.35 - $392.68 | 140 |
| $392.68 - $425.00 | 57 |
| $425.00 - $457.32 | 32 |
| $457.32 - $489.65 | 14 |
| $489.65 - $521.97 | 9 |
| $521.97 - $554.29 | 2 |
| $554.29 - $586.62 | 1 |
| $586.62 - $618.94 | 1 |
| $618.94 - $651.26 | 2 |
| $651.26 - $683.59 | 0 |
| $683.59 - $715.91 | 0 |
| $715.91 - $748.23 | 0 |
| $748.23 - $780.56 | 0 |
| $780.56 - $812.88 | 0 |
| $812.88 - $845.20 | 1 |