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Vulcan Materials Company

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$292.01
5Y Range128.73 – 214.56
5Y Selected171.65
(-) Safety Margin36.86%
5Y Buy Price$108.38
Upside (to Buy Price)-62.89%
10Y Range152.25 – 244.55
10Y Selected198.40
(-) Safety Margin36.86%
10Y Buy Price$125.27
Upside (to Buy Price)-57.10%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8051
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9163
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6853
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7804
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8723
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9264
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1834
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7751
Safety Score0.6314

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.13%9.45%8.77%8.09%7.41%6.72%6.04%5.36%4.68%4.00%
Revenue8,169.168,941.109,725.0810,511.5511,290.0312,049.2512,777.4513,462.6214,092.8314,656.55
EBITDA2,466.362,699.422,936.113,173.563,408.593,637.813,857.664,064.524,254.794,424.98
D&A-631.32-690.98-751.57-812.35-872.51-931.18-987.46-1,040.41-1,089.11-1,132.68
EBIT1,835.042,008.442,184.542,361.212,536.082,706.622,870.203,024.113,165.673,292.30
Pro forma Taxes-327.55-358.50-389.93-421.47-452.68-483.12-512.32-539.79-565.06-587.66
NOPAT1,507.491,649.941,794.611,939.742,083.402,223.502,357.882,484.322,600.612,704.64
Capital Expenditures-746.24-816.76-888.37-960.22-1,031.33-1,100.68-1,167.20-1,229.79-1,287.36-1,338.86
NWC Investment-99.71-102.43-104.02-104.35-103.29-100.74-96.62-90.91-83.62-74.80
(+) D&A631.32690.98751.57812.35872.51931.18987.461,040.411,089.111,132.68
Free Cash Flow1,292.871,421.741,553.781,687.521,821.291,953.262,081.512,204.022,318.752,423.66
Diluted Shares Outstanding132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00132,975,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.46%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF1,281.661,365.921,368.291,362.131,347.511,324.641,293.901,255.801,210.991,160.23
Raw: 28,103.89
19,907.28
Raw: 37,399.04
17,140.44

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value26,632.7930,111.50
(-) Net Debt5,096.355,096.35
Equity Value21,536.4425,015.15
(/) Shares Out132.98132.98
Fair Value$161.96$188.12
(-) Safety Margin36.86%36.86%
Buy Price$102.26$118.78
Current Price$292.01$292.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-64.98%-59.32%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.96%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF1,280.491,360.191,350.181,331.901,305.631,271.821,231.021,183.921,131.301,074.03
Raw: 22,813.07
15,586.09
Raw: 30,358.32
12,821.36

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value22,214.4925,341.84
(-) Net Debt5,096.355,096.35
Equity Value17,118.1420,245.49
(/) Shares Out132.98132.98
Fair Value$128.73$152.25
(-) Safety Margin36.86%36.86%
Buy Price$81.28$96.13
Current Price$292.01$292.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-72.16%-67.08%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.96%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF1,282.841,371.711,386.811,393.341,391.131,380.171,360.611,332.771,297.101,254.22
Raw: 36,482.83
26,802.21
Raw: 48,549.25
24,164.42

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value33,628.0437,615.13
(-) Net Debt5,096.355,096.35
Equity Value28,531.6932,518.78
(/) Shares Out132.98132.98
Fair Value$214.56$244.55
(-) Safety Margin36.86%36.86%
Buy Price$135.48$154.41
Current Price$292.01$292.01
Upside (to Buy Price)-53.61%-47.12%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$292.01
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH146.62%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue19,417.5247,887.23118,098.83291,253.74718,286.051,771,427.384,368,670.3310,773,955.9026,570,584.8465,528,018.25
Constant Implied Growth146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%146.62%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.944.7911.8129.1371.83177.14436.871,077.402,657.066,552.80
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF1.813.878.7419.7544.65100.93228.16515.761,165.882,635.50

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$143.9911.87%$91.28-36.61%
20182018-12-31$98.8013.09%$50.36-49.02%
20172017-12-31$128.3711.31%$13.59-89.41%
20162016-12-31$125.158.08%$34.21-72.66%
20152015-12-31$94.978.51%$22.17-76.66%
20142014-12-31$65.739.48%$-7.92-112.05%
20132013-12-31$59.428.81%$-3.43-105.77%
20122012-12-31$52.058.14%$5.46-89.51%
20112011-12-31$39.357.87%$-9.09-123.11%
20102010-12-31$44.366.49%$-2.73-106.16%
20092009-12-31$52.673.32%$27.42-47.93%
20082008-12-31$69.58-1.23%$-21.59-131.03%
20072007-12-31$79.09-11.50%$-16.82-121.27%
20062006-12-31$89.87-16.06%$5.70-93.66%
20052005-12-31$67.75-14.94%$15.75-76.75%
20042004-12-31$54.61-4.79%$41.30-24.37%
20032003-12-31$47.578.47%$64.6035.81%
20022002-12-31$37.5011.85%$44.6218.99%
20012001-12-31$47.947.71%$37.80-21.16%
20002000-12-31$47.88-0.81%$-35.88-174.94%
19991999-12-31$39.94-2.80%$-98.52-346.68%
19981998-12-31$43.85-0.04%$24.68-43.72%
19971997-12-31$34.049.74%$39.2215.23%
19961996-12-31$20.2914.12%$49.81145.51%
19951995-12-31$19.1713.57%$38.2999.76%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$197.01
Median
$190.07
10th Percentile
$151.61
90th Percentile
$252.02

Fair Value Distribution

$112.07 - $139.10
33
$139.10 - $166.13
201
$166.13 - $193.15
301
$193.15 - $220.18
248
$220.18 - $247.21
110
$247.21 - $274.23
62
$274.23 - $301.26
25
$301.26 - $328.29
9
$328.29 - $355.31
1
$355.31 - $382.34
3
$382.34 - $409.37
4
$409.37 - $436.39
1
$436.39 - $463.42
1
$463.42 - $490.45
0
$490.45 - $517.47
0
$517.47 - $544.50
0
$544.50 - $571.52
0
$571.52 - $598.55
0
$598.55 - $625.58
0
$625.58 - $652.60
1