Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $230.59 |
| 5Y Range | 60.68 – 108.56 |
| 5Y Selected | 84.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.39% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $13.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.27% |
| 10Y Range | 70.99 – 120.11 |
| 10Y Selected | 95.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.39% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $14.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.53% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6897 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0268 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0413 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2006 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1330 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7319 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0875 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1077 |
| Safety Score | 0.1561 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.96% | 4.85% | 4.74% | 4.64% | 4.53% | 4.43% | 4.32% | 4.21% | 4.11% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 829.27 | 869.50 | 910.75 | 952.99 | 996.18 | 1,040.26 | 1,085.19 | 1,130.91 | 1,177.35 | 1,224.44 |
| EBITDA | 158.08 | 165.75 | 173.62 | 181.67 | 189.90 | 198.31 | 206.87 | 215.59 | 224.44 | 233.42 |
| D&A | -31.94 | -33.49 | -35.08 | -36.71 | -38.37 | -40.07 | -41.80 | -43.56 | -45.35 | -47.16 |
| EBIT | 126.14 | 132.26 | 138.54 | 144.96 | 151.53 | 158.24 | 165.07 | 172.03 | 179.09 | 186.25 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -31.19 | -32.70 | -34.25 | -35.84 | -37.46 | -39.12 | -40.81 | -42.53 | -44.28 | -46.05 |
| NOPAT | 94.96 | 99.56 | 104.29 | 109.12 | 114.07 | 119.12 | 124.26 | 129.50 | 134.81 | 140.21 |
| Capital Expenditures | -27.43 | -28.76 | -30.13 | -31.53 | -32.95 | -34.41 | -35.90 | -37.41 | -38.95 | -40.50 |
| NWC Investment | -11.56 | -11.87 | -12.17 | -12.47 | -12.74 | -13.01 | -13.26 | -13.49 | -13.70 | -13.90 |
| (+) D&A | 31.94 | 33.49 | 35.08 | 36.71 | 38.37 | 40.07 | 41.80 | 43.56 | 45.35 | 47.16 |
| Free Cash Flow | 87.91 | 92.42 | 97.06 | 101.84 | 106.74 | 111.76 | 116.90 | 122.15 | 127.51 | 132.97 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 | 12,051,750.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 87.15 | 85.08 | 81.91 | 78.70 | 75.61 | 72.57 | 69.57 | 66.64 | 63.76 | 60.94 | Raw: 1,536.99 1,042.34 |
Raw: 1,914.62 840.11 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,450.78 | 1,582.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 491.94 | 491.94 |
| Equity Value | 958.84 | 1,090.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.05 | 12.05 |
| Fair Value | $79.56 | $90.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.39% | 84.39% |
| Buy Price | $12.42 | $14.12 |
| Current Price | $230.59 | $230.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.61% | -93.88% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 87.07 | 84.35 | 80.46 | 76.60 | 72.93 | 69.35 | 65.89 | 62.54 | 59.29 | 56.16 | Raw: 1,262.21 821.86 |
Raw: 1,572.33 632.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,223.26 | 1,347.50 |
| (-) Net Debt | 491.94 | 491.94 |
| Equity Value | 731.32 | 855.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.05 | 12.05 |
| Fair Value | $60.68 | $70.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.39% | 84.39% |
| Buy Price | $9.47 | $11.08 |
| Current Price | $230.59 | $230.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.89% | -95.19% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 87.23 | 85.83 | 83.39 | 80.88 | 78.42 | 75.96 | 73.50 | 71.05 | 68.61 | 66.18 | Raw: 1,959.38 1,384.50 |
Raw: 2,440.79 1,168.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,800.23 | 1,939.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | 491.94 | 491.94 |
| Equity Value | 1,308.29 | 1,447.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.05 | 12.05 |
| Fair Value | $108.56 | $120.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.39% | 84.39% |
| Buy Price | $16.95 | $18.75 |
| Current Price | $230.59 | $230.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.65% | -91.87% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,982.84 | 4,696.90 | 11,125.90 | 26,354.74 | 62,428.42 | 147,878.85 | 350,291.64 | 829,761.88 | 1,965,518.72 | 4,655,870.45 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% | 136.88% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1.11 | 2.64 | 6.24 | 14.79 | 35.03 | 82.98 | 196.55 | 465.59 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.86 | 1.87 | 4.05 | 8.80 | 19.11 | 41.49 | 90.08 | 195.59 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $57.55 | 4.07% | $28.07 | -51.23% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $73.77 | 5.95% | $52.11 | -29.36% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $102.20 | 2.18% | $43.45 | -57.49% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $90.70 | -3.69% | $29.07 | -67.95% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $82.63 | -5.31% | $60.66 | -26.59% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $79.93 | -3.24% | $42.10 | -47.33% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $74.48 | 2.06% | $69.37 | -6.87% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $54.39 | 3.54% | $64.48 | 18.56% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $42.57 | 1.77% | $44.22 | 3.88% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $30.67 | 4.01% | $30.33 | -1.11% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $25.35 | 4.77% | $20.13 | -20.60% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $11.60 | 4.89% | $43.72 | 276.87% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $20.74 | 3.37% | $40.77 | 96.57% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $28.44 | -1.94% | $5.31 | -81.34% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $30.35 | -2.03% | $11.60 | -61.79% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $28.41 | -1.04% | $7.05 | -75.17% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $27.20 | -0.34% | $18.85 | -30.69% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $21.00 | 2.95% | $53.31 | 153.86% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $24.29 | 1.54% | $35.36 | 45.57% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $23.60 | 1.71% | $25.70 | 8.88% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $15.88 | 1.93% | $16.25 | 2.33% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $27.38 | -1.62% | $9.78 | -64.27% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $29.63 | -1.44% | $-51.93 | -275.25% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $30.00 | 0.03% | $19.82 | -33.93% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $28.50 | 3.71% | $15.75 | -44.73% |
| $45.50 - $53.42 | 3 |
| $53.42 - $61.34 | 22 |
| $61.34 - $69.26 | 73 |
| $69.26 - $77.18 | 114 |
| $77.18 - $85.10 | 174 |
| $85.10 - $93.02 | 187 |
| $93.02 - $100.94 | 143 |
| $100.94 - $108.86 | 87 |
| $108.86 - $116.78 | 81 |
| $116.78 - $124.70 | 45 |
| $124.70 - $132.62 | 29 |
| $132.62 - $140.54 | 14 |
| $140.54 - $148.46 | 11 |
| $148.46 - $156.38 | 10 |
| $156.38 - $164.30 | 4 |
| $164.30 - $172.22 | 1 |
| $172.22 - $180.14 | 0 |
| $180.14 - $188.06 | 1 |
| $188.06 - $195.98 | 0 |
| $195.98 - $203.90 | 1 |