Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $25.19 |
| 5Y Range | 318.44 – 463.03 |
| 5Y Selected | 390.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $55.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 118.56% |
| 10Y Range | 277.59 – 375.58 |
| 10Y Selected | 326.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $46.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 82.67% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.80% | 11.82% | 10.84% | 9.87% | 8.89% | 7.91% | 6.93% | 5.96% | 4.98% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 150.40 | 168.18 | 186.42 | 204.81 | 223.01 | 240.66 | 257.34 | 272.67 | 286.24 | 297.69 |
| EBITDA | 74.81 | 83.66 | 92.73 | 101.88 | 110.93 | 119.71 | 128.01 | 135.63 | 142.39 | 148.08 |
| D&A | -4.98 | -5.57 | -6.18 | -6.78 | -7.39 | -7.97 | -8.52 | -9.03 | -9.48 | -9.86 |
| EBIT | 69.83 | 78.09 | 86.55 | 95.09 | 103.55 | 111.74 | 119.49 | 126.60 | 132.90 | 138.22 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -15.11 | -16.90 | -18.73 | -20.57 | -22.40 | -24.18 | -25.85 | -27.39 | -28.76 | -29.91 |
| NOPAT | 54.72 | 61.19 | 67.83 | 74.52 | 81.14 | 87.56 | 93.63 | 99.21 | 104.15 | 108.31 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3.80 | -4.25 | -4.71 | -5.18 | -5.64 | -6.08 | -6.51 | -6.89 | -7.24 | -7.53 |
| NWC Investment | 238.69 | 248.67 | 255.07 | 257.24 | 254.61 | 246.75 | 233.36 | 214.35 | 189.83 | 160.13 |
| (+) D&A | 4.98 | 5.57 | 6.18 | 6.78 | 7.39 | 7.97 | 8.52 | 9.03 | 9.48 | 9.86 |
| Free Cash Flow | 294.59 | 311.18 | 324.36 | 333.36 | 337.51 | 336.20 | 329.01 | 315.70 | 296.22 | 270.78 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 | 12,839,795.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 292.03 | 298.96 | 285.64 | 269.09 | 249.71 | 228.00 | 204.52 | 179.88 | 154.70 | 129.62 | Raw: 4,850.03 3,435.50 |
Raw: 3,891.18 1,783.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,830.93 | 4,075.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9.84 | 9.84 |
| Equity Value | 4,821.08 | 4,065.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.84 | 12.84 |
| Fair Value | $375.48 | $316.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $52.91 | $44.62 |
| Current Price | $25.19 | $25.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 110.02% | 77.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 291.77 | 297.71 | 281.86 | 263.11 | 241.95 | 218.91 | 194.58 | 169.58 | 144.52 | 120.00 | Raw: 3,984.27 2,722.09 |
Raw: 3,196.58 1,350.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,098.48 | 3,574.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9.84 | 9.84 |
| Equity Value | 4,088.64 | 3,564.16 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.84 | 12.84 |
| Fair Value | $318.44 | $277.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $44.87 | $39.11 |
| Current Price | $25.19 | $25.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 78.12% | 55.27% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 292.30 | 300.23 | 289.50 | 275.25 | 257.79 | 237.56 | 215.06 | 190.90 | 165.70 | 140.13 | Raw: 6,179.75 4,539.97 |
Raw: 4,958.02 2,467.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,955.05 | 4,832.19 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9.84 | 9.84 |
| Equity Value | 5,945.21 | 4,822.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.84 | 12.84 |
| Fair Value | $463.03 | $375.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $65.24 | $52.92 |
| Current Price | $25.19 | $25.19 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 159.00% | 110.08% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 302.20 | 687.18 | 1,562.60 | 3,553.24 | 8,079.81 | 18,372.90 | 41,778.61 | 95,001.45 | 216,026.25 | 491,227.67 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 1.84 | 4.18 | 9.50 | 21.60 | 49.12 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.50 | 1.05 | 2.18 | 4.55 | 9.48 | 19.76 |
| $239.05 - $251.72 | 6 |
| $251.72 - $264.39 | 26 |
| $264.39 - $277.06 | 81 |
| $277.06 - $289.73 | 106 |
| $289.73 - $302.40 | 137 |
| $302.40 - $315.07 | 148 |
| $315.07 - $327.74 | 115 |
| $327.74 - $340.40 | 100 |
| $340.40 - $353.07 | 75 |
| $353.07 - $365.74 | 59 |
| $365.74 - $378.41 | 41 |
| $378.41 - $391.08 | 30 |
| $391.08 - $403.75 | 29 |
| $403.75 - $416.42 | 14 |
| $416.42 - $429.09 | 9 |
| $429.09 - $441.76 | 10 |
| $441.76 - $454.43 | 3 |
| $454.43 - $467.10 | 4 |
| $467.10 - $479.77 | 2 |
| $479.77 - $492.43 | 5 |