Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $341.30 |
| 5Y Range | 143.35 – 227.05 |
| 5Y Selected | 185.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.38% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $106.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.73% |
| 10Y Range | 170.39 – 263.93 |
| 10Y Selected | 217.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.38% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $125.13 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.34% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9279 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8645 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3828 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5288 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8712 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9118 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8842 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9604 |
| Safety Score | 0.5762 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 16.35% | 14.98% | 13.61% | 12.23% | 10.86% | 9.49% | 8.12% | 6.74% | 5.37% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 74,334.07 | 85,469.26 | 97,099.43 | 108,979.50 | 120,817.34 | 132,282.86 | 143,020.89 | 152,667.62 | 160,869.68 | 167,304.46 |
| EBITDA | 42,911.94 | 49,340.11 | 56,054.04 | 62,912.22 | 69,746.03 | 76,364.90 | 82,563.80 | 88,132.71 | 92,867.63 | 96,582.34 |
| D&A | -13,953.55 | -16,043.78 | -18,226.92 | -20,456.98 | -22,679.11 | -24,831.35 | -26,847.03 | -28,657.85 | -30,197.49 | -31,405.39 |
| EBIT | 28,958.39 | 33,296.33 | 37,827.11 | 42,455.24 | 47,066.92 | 51,533.55 | 55,716.77 | 59,474.86 | 62,670.14 | 65,176.95 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 28,958.39 | 33,296.33 | 37,827.11 | 42,455.24 | 47,066.92 | 51,533.55 | 55,716.77 | 59,474.86 | 62,670.14 | 65,176.95 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,393.01 | -1,601.68 | -1,819.62 | -2,042.25 | -2,264.09 | -2,478.95 | -2,680.18 | -2,860.96 | -3,014.67 | -3,135.25 |
| NWC Investment | 323.26 | 344.55 | 359.87 | 367.60 | 366.29 | 354.77 | 332.26 | 298.50 | 253.79 | 199.11 |
| (+) D&A | 13,953.55 | 16,043.78 | 18,226.92 | 20,456.98 | 22,679.11 | 24,831.35 | 26,847.03 | 28,657.85 | 30,197.49 | 31,405.39 |
| Free Cash Flow | 41,842.19 | 48,082.99 | 54,594.28 | 61,237.56 | 67,848.23 | 74,240.72 | 80,215.88 | 85,570.25 | 90,106.76 | 93,646.20 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 | 4,852,750,000.00 |
| Metric | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 | Nov-30 | Nov-31 | Nov-32 | Nov-33 | Nov-34 | Nov-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 11/2/25 | 11/3/26 | 11/3/27 | 11/3/28 | 11/3/29 | 11/3/30 | 11/3/31 | 11/3/32 | 11/3/33 | 11/3/34 |
| Period End | 11/2/26 | 11/2/27 | 11/2/28 | 11/2/29 | 11/2/30 | 11/2/31 | 11/2/32 | 11/2/33 | 11/2/34 | 11/2/35 |
| Mid-Point | 5/3/26 | 5/4/27 | 5/3/28 | 5/4/29 | 5/4/30 | 5/4/31 | 5/3/32 | 5/4/33 | 5/4/34 | 5/4/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.29 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 4.30 | 5.30 | 6.30 | 7.30 | 8.30 | 9.30 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 40,798.81 | 42,936.79 | 44,685.70 | 45,943.33 | 46,658.02 | 46,796.48 | 46,346.25 | 45,316.90 | 43,739.92 | 41,667.17 | Raw: 1,042,620.35 686,444.79 |
Raw: 1,439,056.45 613,018.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 907,467.44 | 1,057,907.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 54,387.75 | 54,387.75 |
| Equity Value | 853,079.69 | 1,003,519.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,852.75 | 4,852.75 |
| Fair Value | $175.79 | $206.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.38% | 42.38% |
| Buy Price | $101.29 | $119.15 |
| Current Price | $341.30 | $341.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.32% | -65.09% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 40,691.00 | 42,430.50 | 43,757.70 | 44,580.59 | 44,862.86 | 44,587.30 | 43,757.24 | 42,396.79 | 40,549.74 | 38,277.31 | Raw: 846,942.72 533,719.14 |
Raw: 1,168,976.21 455,372.98 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 750,041.78 | 881,264.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 54,387.75 | 54,387.75 |
| Equity Value | 695,654.03 | 826,876.26 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,852.75 | 4,852.75 |
| Fair Value | $143.35 | $170.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.38% | 42.38% |
| Buy Price | $82.60 | $98.18 |
| Current Price | $341.30 | $341.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.80% | -71.23% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 40,907.91 | 43,453.87 | 45,642.20 | 47,360.86 | 48,542.55 | 49,136.99 | 49,114.43 | 48,467.86 | 47,214.00 | 45,392.69 | Raw: 1,351,937.42 930,318.86 |
Raw: 1,865,985.32 869,951.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,156,226.25 | 1,335,185.11 |
| (-) Net Debt | 54,387.75 | 54,387.75 |
| Equity Value | 1,101,838.50 | 1,280,797.36 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,852.75 | 4,852.75 |
| Fair Value | $227.05 | $263.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 42.38% | 42.38% |
| Buy Price | $130.83 | $152.08 |
| Current Price | $341.30 | $341.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.67% | -55.44% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 184,252.23 | 531,389.55 | 1,532,545.10 | 4,419,910.95 | 12,747,169.92 | 36,763,261.30 | 106,026,466.24 | 305,783,849.04 | 881,890,773.60 | 2,543,402,272.60 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% | 188.40% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 18.43 | 53.14 | 153.25 | 441.99 | 1,274.72 | 3,676.33 | 10,602.65 | 30,578.38 | 88,189.08 | 254,340.23 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 17.20 | 43.49 | 114.98 | 303.95 | 803.50 | 2,124.07 | 5,615.03 | 14,843.46 | 39,239.07 | 103,729.46 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-11-01 | $35.13 | 17.29% | $81.04 | 130.70% |
| 2019 | 2019-11-03 | $30.50 | 15.13% | $59.33 | 94.53% |
| 2018 | 2018-11-04 | $22.01 | 11.50% | $45.32 | 105.92% |
| 2017 | 2017-10-31 | $26.39 | 11.39% | $31.56 | 19.59% |
| 2016 | 2016-10-31 | $17.03 | 10.35% | $14.34 | -15.79% |
| 2015 | 2015-10-31 | $12.31 | 12.58% | $16.01 | 30.06% |
| 2014 | 2014-10-31 | $8.63 | 18.95% | $8.55 | -0.92% |
| 2013 | 2013-10-31 | $4.54 | 26.73% | $8.97 | 97.68% |
| 2012 | 2012-10-31 | $3.30 | 36.97% | $12.29 | 272.49% |
| 2011 | 2011-10-31 | $3.38 | 35.93% | $15.86 | 369.24% |
| 2010 | 2010-10-31 | $2.38 | 25.61% | $7.87 | 230.65% |
| 2009 | 2009-10-31 | $1.50 | 13.67% | $0.94 | -37.66% |
| 2008 | 2008-10-31 | $1.62 | 8.71% | $1.17 | -27.79% |
| 2007 | 2007-10-31 | $1.62 | 7.32% | $0.77 | -52.37% |
| 2006 | 2006-10-31 | $1.62 | 6.82% | $2.26 | 39.23% |
| $132.16 - $148.90 | 13 |
| $148.90 - $165.65 | 56 |
| $165.65 - $182.39 | 141 |
| $182.39 - $199.13 | 189 |
| $199.13 - $215.88 | 189 |
| $215.88 - $232.62 | 160 |
| $232.62 - $249.36 | 111 |
| $249.36 - $266.11 | 55 |
| $266.11 - $282.85 | 30 |
| $282.85 - $299.59 | 20 |
| $299.59 - $316.34 | 14 |
| $316.34 - $333.08 | 8 |
| $333.08 - $349.82 | 5 |
| $349.82 - $366.57 | 5 |
| $366.57 - $383.31 | 1 |
| $383.31 - $400.05 | 0 |
| $400.05 - $416.80 | 0 |
| $416.80 - $433.54 | 2 |
| $433.54 - $450.28 | 0 |
| $450.28 - $467.03 | 1 |