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ArcBest Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$79.09
5Y Range825.85 – 1,249.34
5Y Selected1,037.60
(-) Safety Margin74.46%
5Y Buy Price$265.00
Upside (to Buy Price)235.06%
10Y Range935.06 – 1,383.56
10Y Selected1,159.31
(-) Safety Margin74.46%
10Y Buy Price$296.09
Upside (to Buy Price)274.37%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4058
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7263
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1319
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6233
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.1161
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6388
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2811
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1037
Safety Score0.2554

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.83%10.07%9.31%8.55%7.79%7.03%6.28%5.52%4.76%4.00%
Revenue4,631.545,097.935,572.606,049.196,520.646,979.367,417.407,826.658,199.108,527.06
EBITDA1,634.961,799.591,967.152,135.392,301.812,463.742,618.372,762.842,894.323,010.09
D&A-160.25-176.38-192.81-209.30-225.61-241.48-256.63-270.79-283.68-295.03
EBIT1,474.711,623.211,774.351,926.092,076.212,222.272,361.742,492.052,610.642,715.06
Pro forma Taxes-331.77-365.18-399.18-433.32-467.10-499.96-531.33-560.65-587.33-610.82
NOPAT1,142.931,258.031,375.161,492.771,609.111,722.311,830.401,931.402,023.312,104.24
Capital Expenditures-156.71-172.49-188.55-204.67-220.63-236.15-250.97-264.82-277.42-288.51
NWC Investment6.396.596.716.736.666.486.195.785.264.63
(+) D&A160.25176.38192.81209.30225.61241.48256.63270.79283.68295.03
Free Cash Flow1,152.871,268.511,386.131,504.121,620.751,734.121,842.261,943.162,034.832,115.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding23,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.0023,319,297.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.36%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF1,142.871,218.701,220.651,214.101,199.141,176.031,145.171,107.161,062.711,012.65
Raw: 24,633.86
17,449.30
Raw: 32,151.80
14,735.57

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value23,444.7726,234.76
(-) Net Debt347.83347.83
Equity Value23,096.9325,886.92
(/) Shares Out23.3223.32
Fair Value$990.46$1,110.11
(-) Safety Margin74.46%74.46%
Buy Price$252.96$283.52
Current Price$79.09$79.09
Upside (to Buy Price)219.84%258.48%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.86%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF1,141.831,213.601,204.491,187.151,161.881,129.131,089.521,043.79992.78937.42
Raw: 20,048.33
13,697.20
Raw: 26,166.82
11,051.15

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,606.1522,152.74
(-) Net Debt347.83347.83
Equity Value19,258.3121,804.91
(/) Shares Out23.3223.32
Fair Value$825.85$935.06
(-) Safety Margin74.46%74.46%
Buy Price$210.92$238.81
Current Price$79.09$79.09
Upside (to Buy Price)166.69%201.95%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.86%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF1,143.921,223.881,237.171,241.921,237.961,225.331,204.221,175.021,138.281,094.69
Raw: 31,847.28
23,396.69
Raw: 41,566.67
20,688.97

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value29,481.5432,611.37
(-) Net Debt347.83347.83
Equity Value29,133.7132,263.53
(/) Shares Out23.3223.32
Fair Value$1,249.34$1,383.56
(-) Safety Margin74.46%74.46%
Buy Price$319.08$353.36
Current Price$79.09$79.09
Upside (to Buy Price)303.44%346.78%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$79.09
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH94.84%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,869.6715,332.9829,874.2358,205.88113,406.25220,956.68430,504.10838,778.811,634,246.653,184,107.77
Constant Implied Growth94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%94.84%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.791.532.995.8211.3422.1043.0583.88163.42318.41
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.731.242.213.957.0512.5922.4840.1571.71128.06

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$27.6010.75%$55.82102.25%
20182018-12-31$34.2614.78%$216.17530.96%
20172017-12-31$35.7512.93%$71.63100.37%
20162016-12-31$27.655.50%$18.38-33.53%
20152015-12-31$21.392.58%$36.4670.46%
20142014-12-31$46.374.04%$70.1151.19%
20132013-12-31$33.684.33%$41.2422.43%
20122012-12-31$9.554.57%$25.83170.52%
20112011-12-31$19.276.46%$35.1482.37%
20102010-12-31$27.428.35%$10.31-62.41%
20092009-12-31$29.4310.21%$-38.54-230.95%
20082008-12-31$30.1110.50%$47.9959.38%
20072007-12-31$21.944.49%$34.5957.66%
20062006-12-31$36.00-0.80%$9.89-72.52%
20052005-12-31$43.68-4.87%$12.22-72.03%
20042004-12-31$44.89-4.64%$22.87-49.05%
20032003-12-31$31.461.56%$4.12-86.91%
20022002-12-31$25.985.82%$22.94-11.69%
20012001-12-31$28.828.97%$-15.89-155.15%
20002000-12-31$18.312.17%$18.330.10%
19991999-12-31$12.00-8.56%$22.2985.78%
19981998-12-31$5.84-13.62%$-6.00-202.71%
19971997-12-31$9.75-10.01%$20.25107.71%
19961996-12-31$4.38-0.39%$-18.16-514.59%
19951995-12-31$7.880.92%$-128.92-1,736.07%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$1,134.63
Median
$1,104.49
10th Percentile
$928.59
90th Percentile
$1,375.77

Fair Value Distribution

$704.62 - $786.95
6
$786.95 - $869.28
34
$869.28 - $951.61
103
$951.61 - $1,033.93
178
$1,033.93 - $1,116.26
195
$1,116.26 - $1,198.59
173
$1,198.59 - $1,280.92
134
$1,280.92 - $1,363.24
71
$1,363.24 - $1,445.57
46
$1,445.57 - $1,527.90
20
$1,527.90 - $1,610.23
18
$1,610.23 - $1,692.55
8
$1,692.55 - $1,774.88
4
$1,774.88 - $1,857.21
4
$1,857.21 - $1,939.54
2
$1,939.54 - $2,021.86
1
$2,021.86 - $2,104.19
0
$2,104.19 - $2,186.52
0
$2,186.52 - $2,268.85
1
$2,268.85 - $2,351.17
2