Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$949.92
5Y Range272.94 – 411.35
5Y Selected342.15
(-) Safety Margin51.64%
5Y Buy Price$165.46
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.58%
10Y Range358.22 – 540.11
10Y Selected449.16
(-) Safety Margin51.64%
10Y Buy Price$217.21
Upside (to Buy Price)-77.13%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9473
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9074
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6603
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5180
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8075
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8550
FCF R2 (5Y)0.7481
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7348
Safety Score0.4836

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth24.88%22.56%20.24%17.92%15.60%13.28%10.96%8.64%6.32%4.00%
Revenue2,756.153,377.844,061.424,789.135,536.146,271.256,958.507,559.668,037.408,358.90
EBITDA766.80939.761,129.951,332.411,540.231,744.751,935.962,103.212,236.122,325.57
D&A-62.57-76.69-92.21-108.73-125.69-142.38-157.98-171.63-182.47-189.77
EBIT704.23863.081,037.741,223.681,414.551,602.371,777.981,931.582,053.652,135.79
Pro forma Taxes0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
NOPAT704.23863.081,037.741,223.681,414.551,602.371,777.981,931.582,053.652,135.79
Capital Expenditures-174.75-214.17-257.51-303.65-351.01-397.62-441.20-479.31-509.60-529.99
NWC Investment-90.49-102.46-112.66-119.93-123.11-121.15-113.26-99.07-78.73-52.98
(+) D&A62.5776.6992.21108.73125.69142.38157.98171.63182.47189.77
Free Cash Flow501.56623.14759.78908.821,066.111,225.981,381.491,524.821,647.781,742.59
Diluted Shares Outstanding48,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.0048,141,500.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF497.21598.67669.07733.59788.78831.42858.76868.80860.57834.19
Raw: 16,439.17
11,644.62
Raw: 26,870.42
12,315.04

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,931.9419,856.11
(-) Net Debt-786.79-786.79
Equity Value15,718.7420,642.90
(/) Shares Out48.1448.14
Fair Value$326.51$428.80
(-) Safety Margin51.64%51.64%
Buy Price$157.90$207.37
Current Price$949.92$949.92
Upside (to Buy Price)-83.38%-78.17%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF496.76596.16660.22717.30764.27798.26817.02819.07803.94772.22
Raw: 13,345.99
9,118.10
Raw: 21,814.50
9,213.01

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,352.8116,458.25
(-) Net Debt-786.79-786.79
Equity Value13,139.6017,245.04
(/) Shares Out48.1448.14
Fair Value$272.94$358.22
(-) Safety Margin51.64%51.64%
Buy Price$131.99$173.23
Current Price$949.92$949.92
Upside (to Buy Price)-86.10%-81.76%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF497.67601.21678.13750.39814.31866.28903.04922.05921.76901.78
Raw: 21,336.20
15,674.70
Raw: 34,874.79
17,358.23

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,016.4225,214.86
(-) Net Debt-786.79-786.79
Equity Value19,803.2126,001.65
(/) Shares Out48.1448.14
Fair Value$411.35$540.11
(-) Safety Margin51.64%51.64%
Buy Price$198.93$261.20
Current Price$949.92$949.92
Upside (to Buy Price)-79.06%-72.50%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$949.92
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH175.84%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,340.0820,247.0455,849.89154,057.62424,956.061,172,208.503,233,446.728,919,213.3224,602,961.8367,865,372.14
Constant Implied Growth175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%175.84%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.732.025.5815.4142.50117.22323.34891.922,460.306,786.54
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.681.634.1310.4526.4266.79168.87426.971,079.542,729.51

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$178.0221.33%$104.51-41.29%
20182018-12-31$116.2526.46%$121.364.40%
20172017-12-31$112.3627.51%$77.39-31.12%
20162016-12-31$81.9320.43%$64.10-21.77%
20152015-12-31$63.7115.90%$42.26-33.66%
20142014-12-31$49.7413.96%$48.64-2.21%
20132013-12-31$34.6614.62%$36.234.53%
20122012-12-31$22.2814.37%$5.21-76.63%
20112011-12-31$15.0711.81%$19.4028.72%
20102010-12-31$16.529.35%$17.485.81%
20092009-12-31$23.974.56%$12.87-46.31%
20082008-12-31$12.615.65%$22.2276.20%
20072007-12-31$21.476.76%$13.88-35.35%
20062006-12-31$11.118.66%$4.94-55.53%
20052005-12-31$14.9912.09%$14.69-2.02%
20042004-12-31$9.309.09%$3.25-65.04%
20032003-12-31$9.840.08%$-9.30-194.53%
20022002-12-31$9.84-2.41%$-4.96-150.41%
20012001-12-31$9.849.66%$-11.63-218.18%
20002000-12-31$9.8427.30%$0.19-98.10%
19991999-12-31$9.8441.54%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$438.46
Median
$425.97
10th Percentile
$353.29
90th Percentile
$540.90

Fair Value Distribution

$266.58 - $312.20
10
$312.20 - $357.81
110
$357.81 - $403.43
242
$403.43 - $449.05
278
$449.05 - $494.66
178
$494.66 - $540.28
80
$540.28 - $585.90
47
$585.90 - $631.51
27
$631.51 - $677.13
15
$677.13 - $722.74
6
$722.74 - $768.36
3
$768.36 - $813.98
0
$813.98 - $859.59
2
$859.59 - $905.21
0
$905.21 - $950.83
0
$950.83 - $996.44
1
$996.44 - $1,042.06
0
$1,042.06 - $1,087.67
0
$1,087.67 - $1,133.29
0
$1,133.29 - $1,178.91
1