Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $55.43 |
| 5Y Range | 49.49 – 76.38 |
| 5Y Selected | 62.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $8.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -83.81% |
| 10Y Range | 55.44 – 82.95 |
| 10Y Selected | 69.19 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.87 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.20% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9337 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0107 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2766 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0432 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9439 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0423 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1202 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4147 |
| Safety Score | 0.1426 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.08% | 5.85% | 5.62% | 5.39% | 5.16% | 4.92% | 4.69% | 4.46% | 4.23% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,610.65 | 6,997.26 | 7,390.31 | 7,788.37 | 8,189.88 | 8,593.16 | 8,996.44 | 9,397.87 | 9,795.50 | 10,187.32 |
| EBITDA | 1,673.88 | 1,771.77 | 1,871.29 | 1,972.09 | 2,073.75 | 2,175.86 | 2,277.98 | 2,379.63 | 2,480.31 | 2,579.52 |
| D&A | -388.37 | -411.08 | -434.17 | -457.56 | -481.14 | -504.84 | -528.53 | -552.11 | -575.47 | -598.49 |
| EBIT | 1,285.51 | 1,360.69 | 1,437.12 | 1,514.53 | 1,592.61 | 1,671.03 | 1,749.45 | 1,827.51 | 1,904.84 | 1,981.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -212.32 | -224.73 | -237.36 | -250.14 | -263.04 | -275.99 | -288.94 | -301.83 | -314.60 | -327.19 |
| NOPAT | 1,073.19 | 1,135.96 | 1,199.77 | 1,264.39 | 1,329.57 | 1,395.04 | 1,460.51 | 1,525.68 | 1,590.23 | 1,653.84 |
| Capital Expenditures | -115.28 | -122.03 | -128.88 | -135.82 | -142.82 | -149.86 | -156.89 | -163.89 | -170.82 | -177.66 |
| NWC Investment | 1.85 | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.96 | 1.94 | 1.91 |
| (+) D&A | 388.37 | 411.08 | 434.17 | 457.56 | 481.14 | 504.84 | 528.53 | 552.11 | 575.47 | 598.49 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,348.12 | 1,426.89 | 1,506.97 | 1,588.06 | 1,669.85 | 1,751.98 | 1,834.11 | 1,915.86 | 1,996.82 | 2,076.58 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 | 341,925,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/26/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/13/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,336.43 | 1,370.87 | 1,327.07 | 1,281.85 | 1,235.47 | 1,188.14 | 1,140.11 | 1,091.61 | 1,042.86 | 994.08 | Raw: 24,015.47 17,011.26 |
Raw: 29,865.09 13,687.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,562.95 | 25,696.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,013.98 | 3,013.98 |
| Equity Value | 20,548.98 | 22,682.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 341.93 | 341.93 |
| Fair Value | $60.10 | $66.34 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% | 85.74% |
| Buy Price | $8.57 | $9.46 |
| Current Price | $55.43 | $55.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.54% | -82.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,335.22 | 1,365.13 | 1,309.51 | 1,253.40 | 1,197.07 | 1,140.76 | 1,084.70 | 1,029.12 | 974.23 | 920.23 | Raw: 19,725.97 13,476.96 |
Raw: 24,530.78 10,360.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,937.28 | 21,969.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,013.98 | 3,013.98 |
| Equity Value | 16,923.30 | 18,955.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 341.93 | 341.93 |
| Fair Value | $49.49 | $55.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% | 85.74% |
| Buy Price | $7.06 | $7.91 |
| Current Price | $55.43 | $55.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.27% | -85.74% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,337.67 | 1,376.69 | 1,345.03 | 1,311.22 | 1,275.46 | 1,237.95 | 1,198.90 | 1,158.51 | 1,117.01 | 1,074.61 | Raw: 30,605.92 22,484.72 |
Raw: 38,060.84 18,944.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,130.79 | 31,377.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,013.98 | 3,013.98 |
| Equity Value | 26,116.82 | 28,363.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 341.93 | 341.93 |
| Fair Value | $76.38 | $82.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.74% | 85.74% |
| Buy Price | $10.89 | $11.83 |
| Current Price | $55.43 | $55.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.35% | -78.66% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 13,418.67 | 31,923.40 | 75,946.67 | 180,679.28 | 429,841.12 | 1,022,604.21 | 2,432,804.37 | 5,787,710.50 | 13,769,127.19 | 32,757,143.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% | 137.90% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.34 | 3.19 | 7.59 | 18.07 | 42.98 | 102.26 | 243.28 | 578.77 | 1,376.91 | 3,275.71 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.25 | 2.58 | 5.62 | 12.25 | 26.72 | 58.27 | 127.06 | 277.06 | 604.17 | 1,317.48 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $58.45 | 6.57% | $55.56 | -4.95% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $51.48 | 6.46% | $64.51 | 25.30% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $45.80 | -1.64% | $33.96 | -25.84% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $45.80 | -4.98% | $27.62 | -39.69% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $45.80 | -7.39% | $27.65 | -39.62% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $45.80 | -5.12% | $29.19 | -36.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $45.80 | -0.42% | $40.60 | -11.35% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $45.80 | -1.03% | $36.41 | -20.51% |
| $41.92 - $45.30 | 1 |
| $45.30 - $48.68 | 11 |
| $48.68 - $52.06 | 36 |
| $52.06 - $55.44 | 77 |
| $55.44 - $58.82 | 93 |
| $58.82 - $62.19 | 132 |
| $62.19 - $65.57 | 141 |
| $65.57 - $68.95 | 128 |
| $68.95 - $72.33 | 107 |
| $72.33 - $75.71 | 83 |
| $75.71 - $79.09 | 59 |
| $79.09 - $82.47 | 27 |
| $82.47 - $85.85 | 33 |
| $85.85 - $89.23 | 24 |
| $89.23 - $92.61 | 17 |
| $92.61 - $95.99 | 10 |
| $95.99 - $99.37 | 7 |
| $99.37 - $102.75 | 6 |
| $102.75 - $106.13 | 4 |
| $106.13 - $109.51 | 4 |