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Fleury Michon S.A.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$25.90
5Y Range1,349.72 – 2,715.02
5Y Selected2,032.37
(-) Safety Margin85.63%
5Y Buy Price$365.83
Upside (to Buy Price)1,312.46%
10Y Range1,447.72 – 2,825.48
10Y Selected2,136.60
(-) Safety Margin85.63%
10Y Buy Price$384.59
Upside (to Buy Price)1,384.89%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6492
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.3901
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8525
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0181
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6892
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0001
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0739
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1081
Safety Score0.1800

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth2.22%2.42%2.62%2.81%3.01%3.21%3.41%3.60%3.80%4.00%
Revenue824.93844.88866.99891.38918.23947.70979.991,015.321,053.921,096.08
EBITDA456.20467.23479.46492.95507.80524.10541.95561.49582.84606.15
D&A-43.19-44.24-45.40-46.67-48.08-49.62-51.31-53.16-55.18-57.39
EBIT413.01423.00434.06446.28459.72474.47490.64508.33527.65548.76
Pro forma Taxes-154.15-157.88-162.01-166.57-171.59-177.10-183.13-189.73-196.95-204.83
NOPAT258.85265.11272.05279.71288.13297.38307.51318.59330.71343.94
Capital Expenditures-30.98-31.73-32.56-33.47-34.48-35.59-36.80-38.13-39.58-41.16
NWC Investment0.660.740.820.900.991.091.191.311.431.56
(+) D&A43.1944.2445.4046.6748.0849.6251.3153.1655.1857.39
Free Cash Flow271.73278.36285.71293.81302.72312.50323.22334.94347.74361.73
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.754,086,282.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.31%Terminal Growth: 2.20%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF270.07270.64261.29252.75244.96237.87231.42225.58220.31215.57
Raw: 7,518.96
5,901.08
Raw: 8,984.55
5,192.90

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,200.807,623.37
(-) Net Debt-87.43-87.43
Equity Value7,288.247,710.80
(/) Shares Out4.094.09
Fair Value$1,783.59$1,887.00
(-) Safety Margin85.63%85.63%
Buy Price$256.30$271.16
Current Price$25.90$25.90
Upside (to Buy Price)889.58%946.96%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.31%Terminal Growth: 1.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF269.82269.47257.74247.00237.16228.14219.89212.34205.45199.15
Raw: 5,483.18
4,146.73
Raw: 6,551.97
3,482.19

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,427.925,828.36
(-) Net Debt-87.43-87.43
Equity Value5,515.355,915.79
(/) Shares Out4.094.09
Fair Value$1,349.72$1,447.72
(-) Safety Margin85.63%85.63%
Buy Price$193.96$208.04
Current Price$25.90$25.90
Upside (to Buy Price)648.86%703.23%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.31%Terminal Growth: 2.70%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF270.33271.82264.92258.70253.11248.11243.68239.78236.40233.51
Raw: 11,890.69
9,688.02
Raw: 14,208.42
8,937.90

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value11,006.9011,458.26
(-) Net Debt-87.43-87.43
Equity Value11,094.3311,545.70
(/) Shares Out4.094.09
Fair Value$2,715.02$2,825.48
(-) Safety Margin85.63%85.63%
Buy Price$390.15$406.02
Current Price$25.90$25.90
Upside (to Buy Price)1,406.36%1,467.65%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$25.90
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH20.88%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,967.072,377.792,874.283,474.434,199.895,076.846,136.897,418.288,967.2210,839.59
Constant Implied Growth20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%20.88%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.200.240.290.350.420.510.610.740.901.08
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.190.200.230.260.300.340.390.440.500.57

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$31.602.98%$-74.79-336.67%
20182018-12-31$38.603.83%$32.54-15.70%
20172017-12-31$46.802.13%$30.78-34.23%
20162016-12-31$64.400.32%$27.30-57.60%
20152015-12-31$63.91-0.21%$18.55-70.98%
20142014-12-31$46.25-1.48%$77.8068.22%
20132013-12-31$52.00-1.25%$20.99-59.63%
20122012-12-31$38.87-0.16%$120.03208.80%
20112011-12-31$28.381.55%$-117.73-514.83%
20102010-12-31$29.524.54%$1,537.755,109.17%
20092009-12-31$34.487.22%$145.09320.79%
20082008-12-31$25.0010.85%$-101.36-505.45%
20072007-12-31$48.9313.38%$-15.87-132.44%
20062006-12-31$44.2111.18%$0.46-98.95%
20052005-12-31$41.509.34%$-19.25-146.40%
20042004-12-31$36.007.37%$-52.03-244.53%
20032003-12-31$36.845.65%$7.35-80.04%
20022002-12-31$28.80-3.01%$18.12-37.10%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$2,047.46
Median
$1,883.22
10th Percentile
$1,452.77
90th Percentile
$2,803.97

Fair Value Distribution

$1,021.23 - $1,265.66
19
$1,265.66 - $1,510.08
120
$1,510.08 - $1,754.50
250
$1,754.50 - $1,998.92
209
$1,998.92 - $2,243.35
136
$2,243.35 - $2,487.77
109
$2,487.77 - $2,732.19
45
$2,732.19 - $2,976.62
30
$2,976.62 - $3,221.04
24
$3,221.04 - $3,465.46
14
$3,465.46 - $3,709.89
17
$3,709.89 - $3,954.31
4
$3,954.31 - $4,198.73
4
$4,198.73 - $4,443.15
2
$4,443.15 - $4,687.58
2
$4,687.58 - $4,932.00
4
$4,932.00 - $5,176.42
4
$5,176.42 - $5,420.85
2
$5,420.85 - $5,665.27
4
$5,665.27 - $5,909.69
1