| Current Price | $25.90 |
| 5Y Range | 1,349.72 – 2,715.02 |
| 5Y Selected | 2,032.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $365.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,312.46% |
| 10Y Range | 1,447.72 – 2,825.48 |
| 10Y Selected | 2,136.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $384.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,384.89% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6492 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3901 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8525 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0181 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6892 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0001 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0739 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1081 |
| Safety Score | 0.1800 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.22% | 2.42% | 2.62% | 2.81% | 3.01% | 3.21% | 3.41% | 3.60% | 3.80% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 824.93 | 844.88 | 866.99 | 891.38 | 918.23 | 947.70 | 979.99 | 1,015.32 | 1,053.92 | 1,096.08 |
| EBITDA | 456.20 | 467.23 | 479.46 | 492.95 | 507.80 | 524.10 | 541.95 | 561.49 | 582.84 | 606.15 |
| D&A | -43.19 | -44.24 | -45.40 | -46.67 | -48.08 | -49.62 | -51.31 | -53.16 | -55.18 | -57.39 |
| EBIT | 413.01 | 423.00 | 434.06 | 446.28 | 459.72 | 474.47 | 490.64 | 508.33 | 527.65 | 548.76 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -154.15 | -157.88 | -162.01 | -166.57 | -171.59 | -177.10 | -183.13 | -189.73 | -196.95 | -204.83 |
| NOPAT | 258.85 | 265.11 | 272.05 | 279.71 | 288.13 | 297.38 | 307.51 | 318.59 | 330.71 | 343.94 |
| Capital Expenditures | -30.98 | -31.73 | -32.56 | -33.47 | -34.48 | -35.59 | -36.80 | -38.13 | -39.58 | -41.16 |
| NWC Investment | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.43 | 1.56 |
| (+) D&A | 43.19 | 44.24 | 45.40 | 46.67 | 48.08 | 49.62 | 51.31 | 53.16 | 55.18 | 57.39 |
| Free Cash Flow | 271.73 | 278.36 | 285.71 | 293.81 | 302.72 | 312.50 | 323.22 | 334.94 | 347.74 | 361.73 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 | 4,086,282.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 270.07 | 270.64 | 261.29 | 252.75 | 244.96 | 237.87 | 231.42 | 225.58 | 220.31 | 215.57 | Raw: 7,518.96 5,901.08 |
Raw: 8,984.55 5,192.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,200.80 | 7,623.37 |
| (-) Net Debt | -87.43 | -87.43 |
| Equity Value | 7,288.24 | 7,710.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.09 | 4.09 |
| Fair Value | $1,783.59 | $1,887.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $256.30 | $271.16 |
| Current Price | $25.90 | $25.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 889.58% | 946.96% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 269.82 | 269.47 | 257.74 | 247.00 | 237.16 | 228.14 | 219.89 | 212.34 | 205.45 | 199.15 | Raw: 5,483.18 4,146.73 |
Raw: 6,551.97 3,482.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,427.92 | 5,828.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | -87.43 | -87.43 |
| Equity Value | 5,515.35 | 5,915.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.09 | 4.09 |
| Fair Value | $1,349.72 | $1,447.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $193.96 | $208.04 |
| Current Price | $25.90 | $25.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 648.86% | 703.23% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 270.33 | 271.82 | 264.92 | 258.70 | 253.11 | 248.11 | 243.68 | 239.78 | 236.40 | 233.51 | Raw: 11,890.69 9,688.02 |
Raw: 14,208.42 8,937.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,006.90 | 11,458.26 |
| (-) Net Debt | -87.43 | -87.43 |
| Equity Value | 11,094.33 | 11,545.70 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4.09 | 4.09 |
| Fair Value | $2,715.02 | $2,825.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.63% | 85.63% |
| Buy Price | $390.15 | $406.02 |
| Current Price | $25.90 | $25.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,406.36% | 1,467.65% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,967.07 | 2,377.79 | 2,874.28 | 3,474.43 | 4,199.89 | 5,076.84 | 6,136.89 | 7,418.28 | 8,967.22 | 10,839.59 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% | 20.88% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.74 | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $31.60 | 2.98% | $-74.79 | -336.67% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $38.60 | 3.83% | $32.54 | -15.70% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $46.80 | 2.13% | $30.78 | -34.23% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $64.40 | 0.32% | $27.30 | -57.60% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $63.91 | -0.21% | $18.55 | -70.98% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $46.25 | -1.48% | $77.80 | 68.22% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $52.00 | -1.25% | $20.99 | -59.63% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $38.87 | -0.16% | $120.03 | 208.80% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $28.38 | 1.55% | $-117.73 | -514.83% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $29.52 | 4.54% | $1,537.75 | 5,109.17% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $34.48 | 7.22% | $145.09 | 320.79% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $25.00 | 10.85% | $-101.36 | -505.45% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $48.93 | 13.38% | $-15.87 | -132.44% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $44.21 | 11.18% | $0.46 | -98.95% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $41.50 | 9.34% | $-19.25 | -146.40% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $36.00 | 7.37% | $-52.03 | -244.53% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $36.84 | 5.65% | $7.35 | -80.04% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $28.80 | -3.01% | $18.12 | -37.10% |
| $1,021.23 - $1,265.66 | 19 |
| $1,265.66 - $1,510.08 | 120 |
| $1,510.08 - $1,754.50 | 250 |
| $1,754.50 - $1,998.92 | 209 |
| $1,998.92 - $2,243.35 | 136 |
| $2,243.35 - $2,487.77 | 109 |
| $2,487.77 - $2,732.19 | 45 |
| $2,732.19 - $2,976.62 | 30 |
| $2,976.62 - $3,221.04 | 24 |
| $3,221.04 - $3,465.46 | 14 |
| $3,465.46 - $3,709.89 | 17 |
| $3,709.89 - $3,954.31 | 4 |
| $3,954.31 - $4,198.73 | 4 |
| $4,198.73 - $4,443.15 | 2 |
| $4,443.15 - $4,687.58 | 2 |
| $4,687.58 - $4,932.00 | 4 |
| $4,932.00 - $5,176.42 | 4 |
| $5,176.42 - $5,420.85 | 2 |
| $5,420.85 - $5,665.27 | 4 |
| $5,665.27 - $5,909.69 | 1 |