Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1,989.50 |
| 5Y Range | 82,710.68 – 165,035.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 123,872.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.44% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $25,716.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,192.59% |
| 10Y Range | 97,420.95 – 190,653.47 |
| 10Y Selected | 144,037.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.44% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $29,902.13 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,403.00% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0451 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.4619 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0112 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2848 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0013 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3078 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0296 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3360 |
| Safety Score | 0.2076 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.70% | 11.73% | 10.77% | 9.80% | 8.83% | 7.87% | 6.90% | 5.93% | 4.97% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 62,528.63 | 69,865.73 | 77,388.35 | 84,972.79 | 92,479.08 | 99,754.40 | 106,637.70 | 112,965.05 | 118,575.74 | 123,318.77 |
| EBITDA | 62,528.63 | 69,865.73 | 77,388.35 | 84,972.79 | 92,479.08 | 99,754.40 | 106,637.70 | 112,965.05 | 118,575.74 | 123,318.77 |
| D&A | -7,109.92 | -7,944.20 | -8,799.57 | -9,661.97 | -10,515.49 | -11,342.74 | -12,125.42 | -12,844.88 | -13,482.85 | -14,022.17 |
| EBIT | 55,418.71 | 61,921.53 | 68,588.78 | 75,310.82 | 81,963.59 | 88,411.66 | 94,512.29 | 100,120.17 | 105,092.89 | 109,296.61 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -4,831.31 | -5,398.21 | -5,979.45 | -6,565.47 | -7,145.45 | -7,707.58 | -8,239.42 | -8,728.31 | -9,161.82 | -9,528.29 |
| NOPAT | 50,587.40 | 56,523.32 | 62,609.33 | 68,745.35 | 74,818.14 | 80,704.08 | 86,272.87 | 91,391.86 | 95,931.07 | 99,768.31 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4,789.31 | -5,351.28 | -5,927.47 | -6,508.39 | -7,083.32 | -7,640.57 | -8,167.79 | -8,652.42 | -9,082.17 | -9,445.45 |
| NWC Investment | -1,472.23 | -1,532.91 | -1,571.67 | -1,584.59 | -1,568.26 | -1,520.01 | -1,438.10 | -1,321.95 | -1,172.22 | -990.94 |
| (+) D&A | 7,109.92 | 7,944.20 | 8,799.57 | 9,661.97 | 10,515.49 | 11,342.74 | 12,125.42 | 12,844.88 | 13,482.85 | 14,022.17 |
| Free Cash Flow | 51,435.79 | 57,583.32 | 63,909.76 | 70,314.34 | 76,682.05 | 82,886.25 | 88,792.39 | 94,262.37 | 99,159.54 | 103,354.08 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 | 15,654,013.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51,112.47 | 55,937.04 | 58,288.72 | 60,211.01 | 61,651.03 | 62,566.77 | 62,929.12 | 62,723.30 | 61,949.76 | 60,624.40 | Raw: 1,832,540.94 1,427,603.62 |
Raw: 2,469,947.00 1,403,830.79 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,714,803.89 | 2,001,824.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,635.04 | 1,635.04 |
| Equity Value | 1,713,168.85 | 2,000,189.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.65 | 15.65 |
| Fair Value | $109,439.59 | $127,774.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.44% | 82.44% |
| Buy Price | $19,217.59 | $22,437.27 |
| Current Price | $1,989.50 | $1,989.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 865.95% | 1,027.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51,064.73 | 55,697.09 | 57,498.84 | 58,842.62 | 59,689.49 | 60,012.64 | 59,798.75 | 59,048.77 | 57,778.08 | 56,016.03 | Raw: 1,350,152.61 1,013,596.40 |
Raw: 1,819,771.29 951,216.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,296,389.16 | 1,526,663.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,635.04 | 1,635.04 |
| Equity Value | 1,294,754.12 | 1,525,028.91 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.65 | 15.65 |
| Fair Value | $82,710.68 | $97,420.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.44% | 82.44% |
| Buy Price | $14,524.00 | $17,107.12 |
| Current Price | $1,989.50 | $1,989.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 630.03% | 759.87% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 51,160.71 | 56,180.29 | 59,097.06 | 61,624.60 | 63,696.46 | 65,255.26 | 66,255.24 | 66,664.45 | 66,466.35 | 65,660.84 | Raw: 2,835,900.95 2,293,339.64 |
Raw: 3,822,302.08 2,364,065.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,585,098.75 | 2,986,126.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,635.04 | 1,635.04 |
| Equity Value | 2,583,463.71 | 2,984,491.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 15.65 | 15.65 |
| Fair Value | $165,035.23 | $190,653.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.44% | 82.44% |
| Buy Price | $28,980.19 | $33,478.75 |
| Current Price | $1,989.50 | $1,989.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,356.66% | 1,582.77% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 103,690.80 | 189,268.63 | 345,475.32 | 630,602.10 | 1,151,048.98 | 2,101,029.71 | 3,835,046.04 | 7,000,176.21 | 12,777,543.31 | 23,323,071.92 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% | 82.53% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 10.37 | 18.93 | 34.55 | 63.06 | 115.10 | 210.10 | 383.50 | 700.02 | 1,277.75 | 2,332.31 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 9.92 | 16.21 | 27.78 | 47.60 | 81.58 | 139.81 | 239.59 | 410.61 | 703.69 | 1,205.97 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1,232.62 | 10.42% | $3,862.17 | 213.33% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1,257.06 | 17.33% | $87.31 | -93.05% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1,319.19 | 22.69% | $-2,587.73 | -296.16% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1,155.20 | 16.26% | $-617.92 | -153.49% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $1,193.18 | 5.47% | $338.51 | -71.63% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6,672.64 | 0.92% | $-316.49 | -104.74% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $7,598.48 | -5.29% | $920.95 | -87.88% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $7,271.34 | -10.57% | $-1,014.37 | -113.95% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $7,146.92 | -11.22% | $-1,000.72 | -114.00% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $8,960.92 | -8.72% | $1,516.85 | -83.07% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $6,741.77 | -4.69% | $-3,094.03 | -145.89% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $5,349.75 | -0.37% | $-2,770.17 | -151.78% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $10,218.43 | 0.37% | $-3,054.35 | -129.89% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $8,295.57 | -1.49% | $-2,747.35 | -133.12% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $8,815.63 | 1.43% | $-59.98 | -100.68% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $9,894.60 | 10.06% | $1,073.88 | -89.15% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $9,208.74 | 18.12% | $1,390.15 | -84.90% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $7,677.62 | 18.76% | $413.86 | -94.61% |
| $68,296.13 - $92,730.73 | 67 |
| $92,730.73 - $117,165.33 | 269 |
| $117,165.33 - $141,599.93 | 306 |
| $141,599.93 - $166,034.52 | 178 |
| $166,034.52 - $190,469.12 | 81 |
| $190,469.12 - $214,903.72 | 42 |
| $214,903.72 - $239,338.32 | 29 |
| $239,338.32 - $263,772.92 | 9 |
| $263,772.92 - $288,207.52 | 7 |
| $288,207.52 - $312,642.11 | 4 |
| $312,642.11 - $337,076.71 | 4 |
| $337,076.71 - $361,511.31 | 3 |
| $361,511.31 - $385,945.91 | 0 |
| $385,945.91 - $410,380.51 | 0 |
| $410,380.51 - $434,815.10 | 0 |
| $434,815.10 - $459,249.70 | 0 |
| $459,249.70 - $483,684.30 | 0 |
| $483,684.30 - $508,118.90 | 0 |
| $508,118.90 - $532,553.50 | 0 |
| $532,553.50 - $556,988.09 | 1 |