Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $676.00 |
| 5Y Range | 2,355.30 – 4,587.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 3,471.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.01% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1,102.47 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 63.09% |
| 10Y Range | 2,577.95 – 4,880.40 |
| 10Y Selected | 3,729.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.01% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1,184.39 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 75.21% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0087 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7739 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1307 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5180 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5321 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4941 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3933 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4928 |
| Safety Score | 0.3176 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.75% | 5.56% | 5.36% | 5.17% | 4.97% | 4.78% | 4.58% | 4.39% | 4.19% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 32,159.13 | 33,946.26 | 35,766.63 | 37,615.01 | 39,485.69 | 41,372.54 | 43,269.04 | 45,168.24 | 47,062.89 | 48,945.40 |
| EBITDA | 4,051.68 | 4,276.84 | 4,506.19 | 4,739.06 | 4,974.75 | 5,212.47 | 5,451.41 | 5,690.68 | 5,929.39 | 6,166.56 |
| D&A | -648.42 | -684.45 | -721.16 | -758.43 | -796.14 | -834.19 | -872.43 | -910.72 | -948.92 | -986.88 |
| EBIT | 3,403.26 | 3,592.39 | 3,785.03 | 3,980.64 | 4,178.60 | 4,378.28 | 4,578.98 | 4,779.96 | 4,980.46 | 5,179.68 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,122.69 | -1,185.08 | -1,248.63 | -1,313.16 | -1,378.47 | -1,444.34 | -1,510.55 | -1,576.85 | -1,642.99 | -1,708.71 |
| NOPAT | 2,280.57 | 2,407.30 | 2,536.40 | 2,667.47 | 2,800.13 | 2,933.94 | 3,068.43 | 3,203.11 | 3,337.47 | 3,470.97 |
| Capital Expenditures | -517.99 | -546.78 | -576.10 | -605.87 | -636.00 | -666.40 | -696.94 | -727.53 | -758.05 | -788.37 |
| NWC Investment | 34.14 | 34.88 | 35.53 | 36.07 | 36.51 | 36.82 | 37.01 | 37.06 | 36.98 | 36.74 |
| (+) D&A | 648.42 | 684.45 | 721.16 | 758.43 | 796.14 | 834.19 | 872.43 | 910.72 | 948.92 | 986.88 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,445.13 | 2,579.86 | 2,716.98 | 2,856.10 | 2,996.78 | 3,138.56 | 3,280.93 | 3,423.36 | 3,565.32 | 3,706.21 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 | 21,657,965.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,429.25 | 2,503.67 | 2,470.40 | 2,433.07 | 2,391.86 | 2,346.98 | 2,298.67 | 2,247.15 | 2,192.69 | 2,135.55 | Raw: 70,593.48 54,537.49 |
Raw: 87,305.20 48,693.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 66,765.75 | 72,142.56 |
| (-) Net Debt | -75.99 | -75.99 |
| Equity Value | 66,841.74 | 72,218.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 21.66 | 21.66 |
| Fair Value | $3,086.24 | $3,334.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.01% | 71.01% |
| Buy Price | $894.70 | $966.67 |
| Current Price | $676.00 | $676.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 32.35% | 43.00% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,426.98 | 2,492.95 | 2,437.00 | 2,377.89 | 2,315.92 | 2,251.37 | 2,184.56 | 2,115.78 | 2,045.33 | 1,973.54 | Raw: 52,225.32 38,884.24 |
Raw: 64,588.71 33,135.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 50,934.97 | 55,757.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | -75.99 | -75.99 |
| Equity Value | 51,010.97 | 55,833.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 21.66 | 21.66 |
| Fair Value | $2,355.30 | $2,577.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.01% | 71.01% |
| Buy Price | $682.80 | $747.35 |
| Current Price | $676.00 | $676.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1.01% | 10.55% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,431.54 | 2,514.54 | 2,504.59 | 2,490.07 | 2,471.05 | 2,447.62 | 2,419.90 | 2,388.04 | 2,352.20 | 2,312.57 | Raw: 108,320.64 86,862.21 |
Raw: 133,963.58 81,291.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 99,273.98 | 105,623.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | -75.99 | -75.99 |
| Equity Value | 99,349.98 | 105,699.64 |
| (/) Shares Out | 21.66 | 21.66 |
| Fair Value | $4,587.23 | $4,880.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.01% | 71.01% |
| Buy Price | $1,329.84 | $1,414.83 |
| Current Price | $676.00 | $676.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 96.72% | 109.29% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 52,518.05 | 95,256.28 | 172,774.10 | 313,374.51 | 568,392.97 | 1,030,940.78 | 1,869,901.56 | 3,391,593.30 | 6,151,610.00 | 11,157,677.87 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% | 81.38% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.25 | 9.53 | 17.28 | 31.34 | 56.84 | 103.09 | 186.99 | 339.16 | 615.16 | 1,115.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.98 | 8.11 | 13.79 | 23.43 | 39.82 | 67.67 | 115.00 | 195.43 | 332.10 | 564.35 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2,344.00 | 4.45% | $2,246.38 | -4.16% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1,226.00 | 4.68% | $1,658.45 | 35.27% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $745.00 | 13.46% | $1,663.02 | 123.22% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $328.00 | 17.03% | $321.97 | -1.84% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $505.00 | 14.90% | $853.11 | 68.93% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $618.00 | 11.22% | $781.82 | 26.51% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1,293.00 | 9.85% | $660.59 | -48.91% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $245.00 | 10.12% | $589.96 | 140.80% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $110.60 | 17.51% | $682.13 | 516.76% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $140.50 | 22.63% | $856.78 | 509.81% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $84.70 | 21.73% | $299.66 | 253.78% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $62.15 | 18.19% | $91.94 | 47.93% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $223.00 | 8.85% | $230.08 | 3.17% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $960.00 | 4.49% | $272.06 | -71.66% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $1,060.00 | 4.52% | $296.11 | -72.06% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $1,060.00 | 8.87% | $18.54 | -98.25% |
| $2,000.40 - $2,556.53 | 82 |
| $2,556.53 - $3,112.66 | 326 |
| $3,112.66 - $3,668.80 | 255 |
| $3,668.80 - $4,224.93 | 162 |
| $4,224.93 - $4,781.06 | 81 |
| $4,781.06 - $5,337.19 | 31 |
| $5,337.19 - $5,893.33 | 23 |
| $5,893.33 - $6,449.46 | 15 |
| $6,449.46 - $7,005.59 | 8 |
| $7,005.59 - $7,561.72 | 6 |
| $7,561.72 - $8,117.85 | 2 |
| $8,117.85 - $8,673.99 | 1 |
| $8,673.99 - $9,230.12 | 2 |
| $9,230.12 - $9,786.25 | 2 |
| $9,786.25 - $10,342.38 | 0 |
| $10,342.38 - $10,898.52 | 1 |
| $10,898.52 - $11,454.65 | 2 |
| $11,454.65 - $12,010.78 | 0 |
| $12,010.78 - $12,566.91 | 0 |
| $12,566.91 - $13,123.04 | 1 |