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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$348.71
5Y Range-2,116.76 – -1,824.16
5Y Selected-1,970.46
(-) Safety Margin57.44%
5Y Buy Price$-838.63
Upside (to Buy Price)-340.49%
10Y Range-1,982.27 – -1,632.78
10Y Selected-1,807.53
(-) Safety Margin57.44%
10Y Buy Price$-769.28
Upside (to Buy Price)-320.61%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8800
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7028
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9482
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.9248
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9348
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8643
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3980
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3428
Safety Score0.4256

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth22.64%20.57%18.49%16.42%14.35%12.28%10.21%8.14%6.07%4.00%
Revenue1,992.622,402.422,846.743,314.293,790.014,255.534,690.115,071.955,379.855,595.04
EBITDA309.91373.65442.76515.48589.46661.87729.46788.85836.73870.20
D&A-181.68-219.04-259.55-302.18-345.56-388.00-427.62-462.44-490.51-510.13
EBIT128.24154.61183.20213.29243.91273.87301.83326.41346.22360.07
Pro forma Taxes-30.27-36.49-43.24-50.34-57.57-64.64-71.24-77.04-81.72-84.98
NOPAT97.97118.12139.96162.95186.34209.23230.59249.37264.51275.09
Capital Expenditures-1.50-1.80-2.14-2.49-2.85-3.20-3.52-3.81-4.04-4.20
NWC Investment0.160.180.200.210.210.210.190.170.140.10
(+) D&A181.68219.04259.55302.18345.56388.00427.62462.44490.51510.13
Free Cash Flow278.32335.54397.58462.86529.26594.24654.89708.17751.12781.11
Diluted Shares Outstanding10,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.0010,972,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.35%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF275.90322.65350.42373.61391.59403.00407.09403.50392.28373.93
Raw: 8,029.38
5,687.58
Raw: 11,850.14
5,431.07

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,401.749,125.02
(-) Net Debt29,379.1229,379.12
Equity Value-21,977.38-20,254.10
(/) Shares Out10.9710.97
Fair Value$-2,003.00$-1,845.94
(-) Safety Margin57.44%57.44%
Buy Price$-852.48$-785.63
Current Price$348.71$348.71
Upside (to Buy Price)-344.47%-325.30%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF275.65321.32345.81365.32379.42386.93387.31380.40366.47346.15
Raw: 6,536.80
4,466.00
Raw: 9,647.32
4,074.40

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,153.527,629.16
(-) Net Debt29,379.1229,379.12
Equity Value-23,225.60-21,749.96
(/) Shares Out10.9710.97
Fair Value$-2,116.76$-1,982.27
(-) Safety Margin57.44%57.44%
Buy Price$-900.89$-843.65
Current Price$348.71$348.71
Upside (to Buy Price)-358.35%-341.94%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF276.16323.99355.13382.17404.26419.89428.08428.23420.17404.22
Raw: 10,375.41
7,622.33
Raw: 15,312.53
7,621.51

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,364.0311,463.80
(-) Net Debt29,379.1229,379.12
Equity Value-20,015.09-17,915.32
(/) Shares Out10.9710.97
Fair Value$-1,824.16$-1,632.78
(-) Safety Margin57.44%57.44%
Buy Price$-776.36$-694.91
Current Price$348.71$348.71
Upside (to Buy Price)-322.64%-299.28%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$348.71
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH181.23%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue4,539.5012,766.2435,901.93100,965.41283,940.58798,513.552,245,624.406,315,270.3917,760,156.1649,946,103.22
Constant Implied Growth181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%181.23%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.451.283.5910.1028.3979.85224.56631.531,776.024,994.61
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.421.032.666.8517.6545.50117.28302.32779.292,008.81

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$83.5033.97%$-1,986.73-2,479.32%
20182018-12-31$60.4418.51%$-1,017.30-1,783.15%
20172017-12-31$78.241.83%$-1,299.90-1,761.42%
20162016-12-31$57.270.32%$-1,083.51-1,991.93%
20152015-12-31$31.5713.04%$-800.32-2,635.05%
20142014-12-31$30.3422.42%$-550.56-1,914.62%
20132013-12-31$34.2518.80%$-140.15-509.19%
20122012-12-31$32.509.41%$-976.55-3,104.76%
20112011-12-31$18.023.65%$-931.89-5,271.43%
20102010-12-31$16.323.18%$-1,607.82-9,951.86%
20092009-12-31$7.013.36%$-436.10-6,321.17%
20082008-12-31$3.500.85%$-466.06-13,416.05%
20072007-12-31$26.328.85%$-202.56-869.62%
20062006-12-31$27.130.40%$-178.47-757.83%
20052005-12-31$29.93-1.32%$-319.66-1,168.04%
20042004-12-31$23.301.02%$-138.98-696.50%
20032003-12-31$31.963.52%$-179.50-661.63%
20022002-12-31$30.6416.70%$-160.37-623.42%
20012001-12-31$40.5011.59%$-49.78-222.92%
20002000-12-31$25.191.75%$-22.42-189.00%
19991999-12-31$20.19-6.01%$-107.14-630.67%
19981998-12-31$12.371.33%$-10.87-187.84%
19971997-12-31$20.3316.50%$-46.18-327.16%
19961996-12-31$10.2527.27%$-31.88-411.02%
19951995-12-31$1.6734.27%$7.80367.22%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-1,825.09
Median
$-1,846.62
10th Percentile
$-1,986.08
90th Percentile
$-1,640.44

Fair Value Distribution

$-2,102.67 - $-2,043.09
23
$-2,043.09 - $-1,983.50
84
$-1,983.50 - $-1,923.92
147
$-1,923.92 - $-1,864.34
185
$-1,864.34 - $-1,804.75
192
$-1,804.75 - $-1,745.17
133
$-1,745.17 - $-1,685.59
86
$-1,685.59 - $-1,626.00
62
$-1,626.00 - $-1,566.42
29
$-1,566.42 - $-1,506.84
31
$-1,506.84 - $-1,447.25
14
$-1,447.25 - $-1,387.67
5
$-1,387.67 - $-1,328.09
2
$-1,328.09 - $-1,268.50
1
$-1,268.50 - $-1,208.92
2
$-1,208.92 - $-1,149.33
2
$-1,149.33 - $-1,089.75
0
$-1,089.75 - $-1,030.17
1
$-1,030.17 - $-970.58
0
$-970.58 - $-911.00
0