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Alliant Energy Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: General UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$65.30
5Y Range-11.32 – 3.79
5Y Selected-3.76
(-) Safety Margin43.47%
5Y Buy Price$-2.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-103.26%
10Y Range-9.63 – 4.91
10Y Selected-2.36
(-) Safety Margin43.47%
10Y Buy Price$-1.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-102.05%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5603
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7817
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6947
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.9303
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9552
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9736
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4655
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5524
Safety Score0.5653

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth1.66%1.92%2.18%2.44%2.70%2.96%3.22%3.48%3.74%4.00%
Revenue4,047.184,124.974,214.974,317.884,434.524,565.834,712.884,876.925,059.335,261.70
EBITDA2,284.412,328.322,379.122,437.202,503.042,577.162,660.162,752.752,855.712,969.94
D&A-644.21-656.59-670.92-687.30-705.86-726.77-750.17-776.28-805.32-837.53
EBIT1,640.201,671.721,708.201,749.911,797.181,850.391,909.991,976.472,050.392,132.41
Pro forma Taxes-26.55-27.06-27.65-28.32-29.09-29.95-30.91-31.99-33.19-34.51
NOPAT1,613.651,644.671,680.551,721.581,768.091,820.441,879.071,944.482,017.202,097.89
Capital Expenditures-1,676.59-1,708.81-1,746.10-1,788.73-1,837.05-1,891.44-1,952.36-2,020.31-2,095.88-2,179.71
NWC Investment-2.32-2.72-3.15-3.60-4.09-4.60-5.15-5.75-6.39-7.09
(+) D&A644.21656.59670.92687.30705.86726.77750.17776.28805.32837.53
Free Cash Flow578.96589.72602.22616.55632.82651.17671.73694.70720.25748.62
Diluted Shares Outstanding257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00257,375,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.39%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF573.94567.06530.79497.67468.20441.60417.56395.82376.16358.37
Raw: 9,660.58
6,843.03
Raw: 11,428.38
5,237.77

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,480.699,864.93
(-) Net Debt10,884.0010,884.00
Equity Value-1,403.31-1,019.07
(/) Shares Out257.38257.38
Fair Value$-5.45$-3.96
(-) Safety Margin43.47%43.47%
Buy Price$-3.08$-2.24
Current Price$65.30$65.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-104.72%-103.43%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF573.41564.74523.81486.62453.65423.99397.27373.17351.41331.75
Raw: 7,856.39
5,367.55
Raw: 9,294.03
3,925.19

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,969.798,405.00
(-) Net Debt10,884.0010,884.00
Equity Value-2,914.21-2,479.00
(/) Shares Out257.38257.38
Fair Value$-11.32$-9.63
(-) Safety Margin43.47%43.47%
Buy Price$-6.40$-5.44
Current Price$65.30$65.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-109.80%-108.34%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF574.46569.42537.92509.07483.36460.11439.09420.08402.91387.40
Raw: 12,504.22
9,186.26
Raw: 14,792.38
7,362.61

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value11,860.4912,146.44
(-) Net Debt10,884.0010,884.00
Equity Value976.491,262.44
(/) Shares Out257.38257.38
Fair Value$3.79$4.91
(-) Safety Margin43.47%43.47%
Buy Price$2.14$2.77
Current Price$65.30$65.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-96.72%-95.75%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$65.30
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH150.46%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue10,707.3326,817.9967,169.38168,235.04421,367.981,055,374.532,643,331.876,620,591.2216,582,188.8041,532,391.34
Constant Implied Growth150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%150.46%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.072.686.7216.8242.14105.54264.33662.061,658.224,153.24
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF1.002.164.9711.4126.1960.13138.05316.93727.601,670.41

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$53.803.24%$-98.62-283.31%
20182018-12-31$41.152.78%$-105.86-357.25%
20172017-12-31$32.201.62%$-56.90-276.70%
20162016-12-31$32.20-1.04%$-41.40-228.56%
20152015-12-31$32.20-0.84%$-28.19-187.54%
20142014-12-31$32.201.50%$-18.19-156.48%
20132013-12-31$32.200.22%$-20.89-164.87%
20122012-12-31$32.20-0.42%$-21.03-165.32%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-3.21
Median
$-4.10
10th Percentile
$-9.90
90th Percentile
$4.44

Fair Value Distribution

$-14.72 - $-12.57
21
$-12.57 - $-10.41
60
$-10.41 - $-8.26
99
$-8.26 - $-6.11
152
$-6.11 - $-3.96
182
$-3.96 - $-1.80
155
$-1.80 - $0.35
108
$0.35 - $2.50
73
$2.50 - $4.65
56
$4.65 - $6.81
34
$6.81 - $8.96
20
$8.96 - $11.11
19
$11.11 - $13.26
5
$13.26 - $15.42
3
$15.42 - $17.57
5
$17.57 - $19.72
3
$19.72 - $21.88
0
$21.88 - $24.03
1
$24.03 - $26.18
1
$26.18 - $28.33
3