Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $37.30 |
| 5Y Range | 4.12 – 23.58 |
| 5Y Selected | 13.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.10% |
| 10Y Range | 6.56 – 26.26 |
| 10Y Selected | 16.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.00% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5349 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0022 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0693 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0349 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2068 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0025 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9708 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0199 |
| Safety Score | 0.1590 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.15% | 3.24% | 3.34% | 3.43% | 3.53% | 3.62% | 3.72% | 3.81% | 3.91% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,357.03 | 1,401.06 | 1,447.83 | 1,497.53 | 1,550.36 | 1,606.51 | 1,666.22 | 1,729.71 | 1,797.27 | 1,869.16 |
| EBITDA | 740.61 | 764.63 | 790.16 | 817.28 | 846.11 | 876.76 | 909.34 | 944.00 | 980.87 | 1,020.10 |
| D&A | -309.03 | -319.05 | -329.70 | -341.02 | -353.05 | -365.84 | -379.43 | -393.89 | -409.28 | -425.65 |
| EBIT | 431.58 | 445.58 | 460.46 | 476.26 | 493.06 | 510.92 | 529.91 | 550.11 | 571.59 | 594.45 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -78.20 | -80.74 | -83.43 | -86.30 | -89.34 | -92.58 | -96.02 | -99.68 | -103.57 | -107.71 |
| NOPAT | 353.38 | 364.84 | 377.02 | 389.97 | 403.72 | 418.34 | 433.89 | 450.43 | 468.02 | 486.74 |
| Capital Expenditures | -455.95 | -470.74 | -486.45 | -503.15 | -520.90 | -539.77 | -559.83 | -581.17 | -603.86 | -628.02 |
| NWC Investment | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.37 | 1.46 | 1.55 |
| (+) D&A | 309.03 | 319.05 | 329.70 | 341.02 | 353.05 | 365.84 | 379.43 | 393.89 | 409.28 | 425.65 |
| Free Cash Flow | 207.35 | 214.11 | 221.28 | 228.91 | 237.01 | 245.62 | 254.79 | 264.53 | 274.89 | 285.92 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 | 120,988,095.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 205.87 | 207.18 | 199.34 | 191.98 | 185.05 | 178.54 | 172.42 | 166.66 | 161.23 | 156.13 | Raw: 4,466.37 3,364.77 |
Raw: 5,388.13 2,838.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,354.19 | 4,663.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,004.48 | 3,004.48 |
| Equity Value | 1,349.72 | 1,658.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 120.99 | 120.99 |
| Fair Value | $11.16 | $13.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% | 85.80% |
| Buy Price | $1.58 | $1.95 |
| Current Price | $37.30 | $37.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.75% | -94.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 205.68 | 206.29 | 196.66 | 187.65 | 179.21 | 171.31 | 163.91 | 156.97 | 150.46 | 144.36 | Raw: 3,480.06 2,527.27 |
Raw: 4,198.28 2,035.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,502.77 | 3,798.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,004.48 | 3,004.48 |
| Equity Value | 498.30 | 793.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 120.99 | 120.99 |
| Fair Value | $4.12 | $6.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% | 85.80% |
| Buy Price | $0.58 | $0.93 |
| Current Price | $37.30 | $37.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.43% | -97.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 206.07 | 208.07 | 202.08 | 196.45 | 191.14 | 186.15 | 181.45 | 177.04 | 172.89 | 168.98 | Raw: 6,208.89 4,854.02 |
Raw: 7,490.28 4,291.36 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,857.82 | 6,181.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 3,004.48 | 3,004.48 |
| Equity Value | 2,853.35 | 3,177.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 120.99 | 120.99 |
| Fair Value | $23.58 | $26.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.80% | 85.80% |
| Buy Price | $3.35 | $3.73 |
| Current Price | $37.30 | $37.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.02% | -90.00% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,883.92 | 12,957.27 | 28,533.82 | 62,835.71 | 138,373.57 | 304,719.14 | 671,036.78 | 1,477,722.60 | 3,254,164.52 | 7,166,153.32 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% | 120.21% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.59 | 1.30 | 2.85 | 6.28 | 13.84 | 30.47 | 67.10 | 147.77 | 325.42 | 716.62 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.56 | 1.09 | 2.23 | 4.57 | 9.36 | 19.20 | 39.36 | 80.69 | 165.43 | 339.15 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $48.33 | 4.47% | $-27.27 | -156.42% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $39.68 | 4.41% | $5.09 | -87.18% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $36.00 | 1.91% | $32.86 | -8.72% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $44.88 | -1.57% | $28.57 | -36.34% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $39.67 | -2.94% | $26.24 | -33.86% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $43.08 | -2.96% | $6.27 | -85.45% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $42.52 | -1.76% | $-0.70 | -101.64% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $53.31 | 0.26% | $-2.98 | -105.58% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $40.83 | 1.27% | $-23.11 | -156.60% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $35.35 | 3.69% | $-22.80 | -164.51% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $27.75 | 4.67% | $-20.89 | -175.27% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $13.50 | 6.81% | $43.37 | 221.28% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $19.40 | 8.13% | $40.60 | 109.27% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $17.80 | 7.63% | $-4.66 | -126.17% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $12.80 | 8.24% | $-2.64 | -120.63% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $7.84 | 8.86% | $-1.13 | -114.47% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $7.45 | 8.23% | $18.58 | 149.41% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $6.17 | 2.60% | $4.38 | -29.04% |
| $1.14 - $13.44 | 482 |
| $13.44 - $25.73 | 399 |
| $25.73 - $38.03 | 94 |
| $38.03 - $50.32 | 20 |
| $50.32 - $62.62 | 2 |
| $62.62 - $74.91 | 1 |
| $74.91 - $87.21 | 0 |
| $87.21 - $99.50 | 0 |
| $99.50 - $111.80 | 0 |
| $111.80 - $124.09 | 1 |
| $124.09 - $136.39 | 0 |
| $136.39 - $148.68 | 0 |
| $148.68 - $160.98 | 0 |
| $160.98 - $173.27 | 0 |
| $173.27 - $185.57 | 0 |
| $185.57 - $197.86 | 0 |
| $197.86 - $210.16 | 0 |
| $210.16 - $222.45 | 0 |
| $222.45 - $234.75 | 0 |
| $234.75 - $247.04 | 1 |